4 years of 5E on Amazon: same old same old

[Zardnaar]

It is peculiar, isn't it?

THe numbers of the 80's are not 100% its a lot of wishful thinking and/or PR.

If they reveled some revenue figures or hard numbers one way or the other you cold do a direct comparison. Its called data and a primary source.

Peak D&D they made over 50 million adjusted for inflation, 1E and Basic sold concurrently as well and both broke a million. I don't see WoTC claiming 2 million in sales, the RPG market in total is not 50 million a year let alone by itself D&D itself.

5E might be bigger than old D&D I can't really see how its bigger than D&D best year ever though.

We don't know what metrics WoTC is using. Total players at best is an estimate, if they are using revenue they might not be djusting for inflation, they might be using total books sold vs an older edition or they may be comparing it to WoTC only editions we just don't know.

So assuming the "D&D has had its best year ever" we don't know what metric they are using as a comparison and we don't know if that statement is actually true its pure PR and they have claimed it before with 4E apparently ((or the claim 4E presales outsold 3.5 grew into 4E outsold 3E I have never seen the statement they apparently used and 3.5 did not actually do that well either).

I don't expect them to open up there books and we may not know for another 10 or 20 years once Mearls steps down/retires/gets laid off, but even if they said something like "The 5E PHB has sold 1 million copies" (or whatever) its a ballpark figure. Or an ex staff member gives a number its something.

 

[Parmandur]

Skepticism can be pushed too far: when a CEO says in an investor call, he can be challenged and suffer legal consequences. That isn't PR, that's business reporting. More people are playing now than in the 80's, so it would stand to reason that the game is selling more.

 

[Zardnaar]

Skepticism can be pushed too far: when a CEO says in an investor call, he can be challenged and suffer legal consequences. That isn't PR, that's business reporting. More people are playing now than in the 80's, so it would stand to reason that the game is selling more.

Only if they are using the same criteria estimating players. That's why I think something comparable such as core books sales (or equivalent) is a reasonable metric.

I don't think he is lying but idk what metric he is using. We had 5 PHB for example with 6 players so idk how they estimate number of players.

The main thing I am sceptical is peak D&D adjusted for inflation is bigger than the entire rpg market now. Peak D&D only lasted a year or to so overall yeah 5E might be bigger but some people are claiming now is peak D&D. Overall it might be but I don't see how it is unless they are using different metrics.

I'm talking about peak golden age here which was 1983. WotC used to have over 20 million on their site while ex TSR employees have said 23 to 27 million. That's the numbers I was using and you can plug them into inflation calculators.

So if they say D&D is doing better than ever and have made 30 million they're not lying as such.

 

[Morrus]

It is peculiar, isn't it?

I find both sides of the argument perplexing. That’s an emotional investment that’s beyond me.

 

[ad_hoc]

I find both sides of the argument perplexing. That’s an emotional investment that’s beyond me.

That's fair.

I suppose to me it is more a reminder of how insulating geek culture can be. So it is less the subject matter (even though I find the numbers themselves interesting too) and more of an exploration of how far removed we can get.

There are an overwhelming number of dedicated D&D players who aren't in the same geeky social circles as we are. So much so that they now outnumber the 5e players who have played previous editions. Something that I think is hard for many here to imagine.

 

[fjw70]

Glad to see D&D doing so well. 5e is a great game and I really enjoy it.

 

[Parmandur]

Only if they are using the same criteria estimating players. That's why I think something comparable such as core books sales (or equivalent) is a reasonable metric.

I don't think he is lying but idk what metric he is using. We had 5 PHB for example with 6 players so idk how they estimate number of players.

The main thing I am sceptical is peak D&D adjusted for inflation is bigger than the entire rpg market now. Peak D&D only lasted a year or to so overall yeah 5E might be bigger but some people are claiming now is peak D&D. Overall it might be but I don't see how it is unless they are using different metrics.

I'm talking about peak golden age here which was 1983. WotC used to have over 20 million on their site while ex TSR employees have said 23 to 27 million. That's the numbers I was using and you can plug them into inflation calculators.

So if they say D&D is doing better than ever and have made 30 million they're not lying as such.

The numbers are not extrapolated from sales, but most likely from m scientific market surveys which can be very accurate. We are almost certainly in prak D&D up to this point.

 

[TerraDave]

Yes, the CEO of Hasbro when communicating with investors is legally liable, its taken very seriously.

Anyways, we have the IVC story on the front page here:

http://www.enworld.org/forum/conten...es-To-1-55M-D-D-Remains-On-Top&postid=7472584

Huge growth in retail sales, and most of that has to be 5E. And of course that entirely separate from whatever they are making in online sales.

 

[TerraDave]

I find both sides of the argument perplexing. That’s an emotional investment that’s beyond me.

Just trying to share some RPG news.

 

[Zardnaar]

http://www.enworld.org/forum/conten...-Market-Increases-To-1-55M-D-D-Remains-On-Top

RPG market 55 million, 2013 was 13 million so 40+ million of that is likely D&D sales.

Absolute figures its peak D&D, adjust for inflation its very close to 1983 but that was only a single year maybe 82, 80 and 81 were smaller although 81 to 83 were the good years.
Absolute peak probably not (1983>2018 adjusted for inflation), overall peak probably as 5E has had 3 great years in a row, golden age had 1 or 2 at least in these kinds of levels.

Depending on who you want to believe peak golden age D&D got around 50-68 million adjusted for inflation (20-27 million 1983). Its ivery close or just over of the lower estimates of the golden age and I guess in 2013 a good chunk of that 13 million would have been Pathfinder (it was number 1) and I expect a few of them have migrated to 5E assuming online games played