4 years of 5E on Amazon: same old same old

darjr

I crit!
Take a look at the new twitch studio and all the money from WotC going to streaming. That money is coming from somewhere.
 

Jester David

Adventurer
Yeah, he's the Director of D&D. Interesting that he came out with the statement instead of Mearls. Just something interesting to me I guess.

Why?

Why not Stewart instead of Mearls? Would it be more authoritative from Mearls? Does Mearls have access to information his boss does not?
Again… why?

As I stated above, if this is true, then I'm wondering where all the money is.


They better show outstanding sales for the past fiscal year, and D&D should be MORE than a footnote in this case on the bottom of the report.

I now know where this idea came from and where people are getting it from.

If it is correct and this is active players, then worldwide it is bigger and probably the statement that it is bigger than D&D has ever been is correct. If he is ACCURATE it should ALSO mean great news for all the Hasbro Stock Holders...and the RPG market should be a HECK of a lot larger than 55 million.

I hope it turns out that way. Stock is on the rise over the past 24 hours now (hit a high today right before Noon it appears). [Of course much of that may be due to Fortnight and it's decrease but steady may be due to the news that they were releasing a convention exclusive in Europe before it comes to the US).

Again, you sound incredulous. Doubtful. Your last two or three posts cite Stewart and imply that the number of players is somehow incredulous.

Which brings me back to what I asked earlier?
Are you implying Nathan Stewart is a liar? That he's purposely telling people inaccurate numbers? Or are you implying that he's incompetent, and doesn't know his job?


Should the D&D market be bigger than $55 million? Once again: IT IS!!!!! The ICv2 reports don't include Amazon.You know, the massive online retailer that is selling hundreds of copies of the PHB each day.
Repeating: the $55 million figure does not include online sales.
Once more for the people in the back: the $55,000,000 figure could be as much as twice as large.
Say it with me now…

Also, keep in mind that while D&D apparently has more players than Magic the Gathering, you NEED a deck to play Magic (and you need to update that deck, and making cards for Magic is super cheap). Plus, you need to update your deck on a regular basis.
Meanwhile, only one person in every 4-6 needs the rulebooks to play D&D. If even as high as that, given there are the Basic Rules are free. AND you only need to pay once, as the book you bought in 2014 or 2015 still works. So that 12 million player number might only translate to 2 1/2 million books sold.

In short, you're looking at the numbers for HALF the sales that are sold to a FIFTH of the audience for a SINGLE year and then complaining that they don't match the total numbers of the audience.
:/
 

GreyLord

Adventurer

Why?

Why not Stewart instead of Mearls? Would it be more authoritative from Mearls? Does Mearls have access to information his boss does not?
Again… why?


Again, you sound incredulous. Doubtful. Your last two or three posts cite Stewart and imply that the number of players is somehow incredulous.

Which brings me back to what I asked earlier?
Are you implying Nathan Stewart is a liar? That he's purposely telling people inaccurate numbers? Or are you implying that he's incompetent, and doesn't know his job?


Should the D&D market be bigger than $55 million? Once again: IT IS!!!!! The ICv2 reports don't include Amazon.You know, the massive online retailer that is selling hundreds of copies of the PHB each day.
Repeating: the $55 million figure does not include online sales.
Once more for the people in the back: the $55,000,000 figure could be as much as twice as large.
Say it with me now…

Also, keep in mind that while D&D apparently has more players than Magic the Gathering, you NEED a deck to play Magic (and you need to update that deck, and making cards for Magic is super cheap). Plus, you need to update your deck on a regular basis.
Meanwhile, only one person in every 4-6 needs the rulebooks to play D&D. If even as high as that, given there are the Basic Rules are free. AND you only need to pay once, as the book you bought in 2014 or 2015 still works. So that 12 million player number might only translate to 2 1/2 million books sold.

In short, you're looking at the numbers for HALF the sales that are sold to a FIFTH of the audience for a SINGLE year and then complaining that they don't match the total numbers of the audience.
:/
There is a difference between it coming from Mearls and coming from Stewart...yes. However, I don't really care to explain why it matters to me.

Am I incredulous...I am...but now that I know why you guys were claiming what you were claiming, I'm willing to have a wait and see situation on it.

This stuff should be reflected in the Quarterlies, or at a minimum the Annuals. This type of money in flow should mean at least a bump to investors.

If you have 15 million players, and you have over ten books out, you should probably see $5 - $10 per player (many spend zero, but then you have those who make up for it and spend a TON) on average in my approximation. During 3e/3.5 you had around a 5 million player base, and WotC in some thoughts was making between 25 million and 30 million a year. At just $5 on average you'll see $75 million. At $10 you'll see 150 million if that is an ACTIVE player base (emphasis on Active). Everyone needs something like Dice, books, materials, something.

This could also be where some are looking in expanding the brand with coming up with new types of Brand merchandise. I'm not too keen on it, but I think some are pushing for it to go that way. More ways to milk the player base. If it really is 15 million, that should represent a LARGE amount of money.

PS: For those who are trying to figure out how this works, let's say at a MINIMUM it costs someone $75 to buy all three core rulebooks. ONLY the DM gets those. For it to be $5 a player that would mean that DM plus the players is equal to 15 total players (DM + 14 others).

$10 is actually a much more reasonable idea (DM + 6 players) and I think it is a 5 player base that is planned for (DM +4 players) which would actually be $15 a group with ONLY ONE individual spending money.

Obviously this is a VERY LOW BALL. I know to some this may seem outrageous amounts of an averaging, but honestly, many don't just buy the core rulebooks, and normally the books, even on amazon are going to be more than $75 all together, and there are going to be many groups that have MORE than 1 PHB in them. I gave a LOW BALL idea of what I SHOULD see therefore. In reality, if the numbers reported are active players and it is higher, I should see a much HIGHER amount.

Though the thing I expect people to toss back at this assumption is that the entirety of the hobby is made up of players playing off the free Basic D&D document. I don't think that's the case, but I expect people will assume that if the numbers do not add up).
 
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Parmandur

Legend
That COULD BE.

When you get older, you tend to miss a LOT of the stuff that is in Pop Culture.

Now that I've found the source of what people were referring to (did they say anything at GenCon on this? if not, wonder why the local Seattle Paper and not a big event?) I'm willing to wait out and see where it goes in regards to sales and other things. If it is TRUE, then I expect that the RPG market has skyrocketed over the past year.

15 million is serious competing with MtG and probably indicates it has far more players worldwide than MtG. If it is official and that is active players, that actually is HUGE...and the money SHOULD reflect this.
A casual Magic player can easily drop $500 a year just picking up boosters at Target. A hardcore D&D fan will spend a fraction of that amount. More players ≠ more money, in the short term. However, WotC has gotten a lot of other companies to license D&D stuff in the last few years, because...the player base is there to market towards.
 

Parmandur

Legend
There is a difference between it coming from Mearls and coming from Stewart...yes. However, I don't really care to explain why it matters to me.

Am I incredulous...I am...but now that I know why you guys were claiming what you were claiming, I'm willing to have a wait and see situation on it.

This stuff should be reflected in the Quarterlies, or at a minimum the Annuals. This type of money in flow should mean at least a bump to investors.

If you have 15 million players, and you have over ten books out, you should probably see $5 - $10 per player (many spend zero, but then you have those who make up for it and spend a TON) on average in my approximation. During 3e/3.5 you had around a 5 million player base, and WotC in some thoughts was making between 25 million and 30 million a year. At just $5 on average you'll see $75 million. At $10 you'll see 150 million if that is an ACTIVE player base (emphasis on Active). Everyone needs something like Dice, books, materials, something.

This could also be where some are looking in expanding the brand with coming up with new types of Brand merchandise. I'm not too keen on it, but I think some are pushing for it to go that way. More ways to milk the player base. If it really is 15 million, that should represent a LARGE amount of money.
There are a lot of people on D&D Beyond, and D&D Beyond (a third party that pays WotC for the IP) seems to have a lot of money to throw at things.

Look at the Stream of Many Eyes from a business point of view, even if it is not your jam: how much did WotC spend on that? The money came from somewhere, and was spent for a purpose.
 
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darjr

I crit!
Again with the “trust me but I won’t tell you why” baloney. What is it about Nathan? You’ve already called him a criminal and a lier. I bet if you state exactly why, you’d kill your already flagging credibility.
 

GreyLord

Adventurer
A casual Magic player can easily drop $500 a year just picking up boosters at Target. A hardcore D&D fan will spend a fraction of that amount. More players ≠ more money, in the short term. However, WotC has gotten a lot of other companies to license D&D stuff in the last few years, because...the player base is there to market towards.
I'll repost this as I did the edit after you responded

For those who are trying to figure out how this works, let's say at a MINIMUM it costs someone $75 to buy all three core rulebooks. ONLY the DM gets those. For it to be $5 a player that would mean that DM plus the players is equal to 15 total players (DM + 14 others).

$10 is actually a much more reasonable idea (DM + 6 players) and I think it is a 5 player base that is planned for (DM +4 players) which would actually be $15 a group with ONLY ONE individual spending money.

Obviously this is a VERY LOW BALL. I know to some this may seem outrageous amounts of an averaging, but honestly, many don't just buy the core rulebooks, and normally the books, even on amazon are going to be more than $75 all together, and there are going to be many groups that have MORE than 1 PHB in them. I gave a LOW BALL idea of what I SHOULD see therefore. In reality, if the numbers reported are active players and it is higher, I should see a much HIGHER amount.

Though the thing I expect people to toss back at this assumption is that the entirety of the hobby is made up of players playing off the free Basic D&D document. I don't think that's the case, but I expect people will assume that if the numbers do not add up).

These numbers are NOT something you hide from the stock holders, so, these numbers ARE things that should be seen. Hiding money from those owning stock is normally NOT a wise idea, and I do not think that WotC is going to start doing that at Hasbro.
 

Parmandur

Legend
PS: For those who are trying to figure out how this works, let's say at a MINIMUM it costs someone $75 to buy all three core rulebooks. ONLY the DM gets those. For it to be $5 a player that would mean that DM plus the players is equal to 15 total players (DM + 14 others).

$10 is actually a much more reasonable idea (DM + 6 players) and I think it is a 5 player base that is planned for (DM +4 players) which would actually be $15 a group with ONLY ONE individual spending money.

Obviously this is a VERY LOW BALL. I know to some this may seem outrageous amounts of an averaging, but honestly, many don't just buy the core rulebooks, and normally the books, even on amazon are going to be more than $75 all together, and there are going to be many groups that have MORE than 1 PHB in them. I gave a LOW BALL idea of what I SHOULD see therefore. In reality, if the numbers reported are active players and it is higher, I should see a much HIGHER amount.

Though the thing I expect people to toss back at this assumption is that the entirety of the hobby is made up of players playing off the free Basic D&D document. I don't think that's the case, but I expect people will assume that if the numbers do not add up).
You do see that amount of money, being spent on Amazon: that's the thread topic, the ridiculous amount of money being spen at Amazon on D&D. Again, the $55 million doesn't include the Amazon sales.
 

ad_hoc

Adventurer
https://www.twitch.tv/videos/139409870

27:30 (recorded April, 2017)

Chris Cocks states that there are over 9.5 million active 5e players.

So we have 2 numbers:

April 2017 - 9.5 million active players
May 2018 - 12-15 million players in NA

D&D has continued to increase in sales rate by leaps and bounds. The player counts we get will always be sometime behind. I would guess that player retention for D&D is fairly high as far as these things go. Having a steady sales rate would increase players over time. But it's much more than that, the sales rate is continuing to increase. Every year is their best year.
 

Jester David

Adventurer
There is a difference between it coming from Mearls and coming from Stewart...yes. However, I don't really care to explain why it matters to me.
Which feels counterintuitive to me.
Mearls is the designer. He makes the game. He does the rules. He has no buisness doing the financials or worrying about that other stuff.

This stuff should be reflected in the Quarterlies, or at a minimum the Annuals. This type of money in flow should mean at least a bump to investors.
You mean stuff like the CEO of Hasbro name dropping D&D repeatedly:
http://www.enworld.org/forum/showthread.php?443728-Hasbro-CEO-quot-D-amp-D-is-Really-on-a-Tear-quot

https://icv2.com/articles/news/view/38069/games-drive-hasbro-sales-jump

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/23/hasbro-ceo-dungeons--dragons-is-having-its-best-year-ever.html

If you have 15 million players, and you have over ten books out, you should probably see $5 - $10 per player (many spend zero, but then you have those who make up for it and spend a TON) on average in my approximation. During 3e/3.5 you had around a 5 million player base, and WotC in some thoughts was making between 25 million and 30 million a year. At just $5 on average you'll see $75 million. At $10 you'll see 150 million if that is an ACTIVE player base (emphasis on Active). Everyone needs something like Dice, books, materials, something.
Look up the Pareto Principle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
Basically, 80% of your sales are going to come from 20% of your audience.

That's really augmented with D&D, as tables are built around one player, typically the DM, who buys all the books. Everyone else buys the dice, which are a negligible purchase. (And a one time purchase not made each year.)

Again, not everyone buys splatbooks or accessories. Most groups don't. D&D ends up being a one time purchase. They buy the core rules and stop.
As you break down, this is a $150-70 purchase. Likely closer to $90-100. With 15 million people, you might have 300,000 DMs and buyers each making $100 purchases for total sales of $3,000,000. Which is waaaaay less than $50 million per year WotC is pulling in.

So D&D players are spending significantly MORE than you'd expect for the hobby, buying the accessories, and multiple players buying PHBs.
 

GreyLord

Adventurer
Again with the “trust me but I won’t tell you why” baloney. What is it about Nathan? You’ve already called him a criminal and a lier. I bet if you state exactly why, you’d kill your already flagging credibility.
????

I haven't responded to you because I don't care about your accusations typically. I really don't care what you have to say in regards to those acusations, you haven't said anything useful to me at all thus far.

I would like to say though, that I have not called him a criminal OR a liar once I learned that he was the source of all your information. I do NOT consider him as such. I have NEVER CLAIMED such. Please do not claim I stated things that I have NOT stated.

I think what he said MAY have been misinterpreted by many here, and he was talking something entirely different then what people assume when he was talking about players (meaning he was not talking about active players).

What I DID say is that I'm going to wait and see what comes out on the reports to see what is reflected THERE in them. If it turns out he DID mean active players it should be reflected. If he did NOT mean active players but something else (which I entirely expect it will, this I think is the most likely outcome) it will also be clear to those who need to know when the report comes out.

IF he meant that those are active players, reinforces it, and the reports don't reflect this...there will be questions most likely asked.

If anything I have acknowledged his statements and given them weight on my own part in building on saying if what he stated IS true it makes sense other claims made are also true.

If it means that D&D is a major brand now making over 100 million a year, I'll be delighted, mayhaps more than many of you.

Overall, I still think the onus is on those making assumptions as to what he actually means in that statement and it might not mean what many think it means, but hey, if he is going to claim 15 million, I'm going to stop talking crossroads at him and saying a different number regardless of what it means or is defined as.

I found the source (no thanks to you) of the information, and I'll going to see where it goes.

HOWEVER, I really don't care what you think of my "credibility" and from most of your responses it probably would be best if you just pretended I didn't even exist in this thread. If I cared about "credibility" I would probably have probably acted far more differently. I don't really care if people think I'm credible or not. Why should I?

Almost anyone I would think are interesting about the early days of TSR have been chased off to one degree or another, and those who are NOT part of WotC's official offices have never really been taken seriously...so what does "credibility" do for me? Even if I was "credible" that just seems like it would be a way to be harassed about a bunch of things that I have no desire to discuss.

If people don't find me credible, more power to them. It's their privilege to think one is credible or another is not. It is your privilege as well. I'm not here to discuss my credibility (or yours or most others). YOU can think what you want of AD&D or other editions and I can think what I want. It really doesn't matter what either ONE of us thinks in regards to what actually happened. What happened cannot be changed by you or I or anyone else at this point (unless someone invented a time machine, it might matter to them), what we can do is debate about it.

Which is a large amount of what we have done in regards to my thoughts in this thread. Never once stated I needed to be "Credible" nor that I desired to be "credible." I'm sorry if that's what you wanted out of me. That was never my design nor intention. My design was simply to figure out why what I was seeing and read was so different than what seems to be the common narrative on ENworld's 5e forum.

At this point, I think I've found the main reason why.
 

OB1

Jedi Master
Add to [MENTION=21556]Jester[/MENTION]david - even if the average spend per player were only $10, that would mean $150M over 4 years, just under $40M per year.

Or if the player base increased from 10M to 15M from 2017 to 2018, that would mean $50M in sales.

The reason Hasbro doesn’t yet list D&D as a franchise brand is likely because of the low average spend per user. I have a feeling that the survey they released yesterday is looking for ways that they can increase that number.

At the same time, the crossover with one of their premier franchise brands this winter will likely lead to another increase in the player base, and with a demo that shows it will spend money. It’s a very smart move by Hasbro.
 

GreyLord

Adventurer
Which feels counterintuitive to me.
Mearls is the designer. He makes the game. He does the rules. He has no buisness doing the financials or worrying about that other stuff.


You mean stuff like the CEO of Hasbro name dropping D&D repeatedly:
http://www.enworld.org/forum/showthread.php?443728-Hasbro-CEO-quot-D-amp-D-is-Really-on-a-Tear-quot

https://icv2.com/articles/news/view/38069/games-drive-hasbro-sales-jump

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/23/hasbro-ceo-dungeons--dragons-is-having-its-best-year-ever.html


Look up the Pareto Principle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
Basically, 80% of your sales are going to come from 20% of your audience.

That's really augmented with D&D, as tables are built around one player, typically the DM, who buys all the books. Everyone else buys the dice, which are a negligible purchase. (And a one time purchase not made each year.)

Again, not everyone buys splatbooks or accessories. Most groups don't. D&D ends up being a one time purchase. They buy the core rules and stop.
As you break down, this is a $150-70 purchase. Likely closer to $90-100. With 15 million people, you might have 300,000 DMs and buyers each making $100 purchases for total sales of $3,000,000. Which is waaaaay less than $50 million per year WotC is pulling in.

So D&D players are spending significantly MORE than you'd expect for the hobby, buying the accessories, and multiple players buying PHBs.
15 million divided by 5 is actually 3 million. 3 million x $75 to buy the core rulebooks is actually $225 million.

Even with 300,000 x your $100 is 30 million (not 3 million). at 300,000 DM's and only 300,000 groups you are saying each DM has 50 people in their group.

I think your math is a little off.

In regards to quarterlies and annuals, I'm not referring to name dropping on the internet. These are hard numbers that investors get in reports to their investments. In addition, I think Hasbro regularly makes the annual public and maybe even the quarterlies. These are reports on how Hasbro as a company is doing, and financials and other information.
 

GreyLord

Adventurer
You do see that amount of money, being spent on Amazon: that's the thread topic, the ridiculous amount of money being spen at Amazon on D&D. Again, the $55 million doesn't include the Amazon sales.
Yes, but it SHOULD be in the quarterlies and annuals.
 

Jester David

Adventurer
I think your math is a little off.
Yeah... I got called away halfway through writing and carried on without checking my math. And then has to run to pick up my son, posting too soon...


Okay, 3 million DMs paying an expected $300 million. Give or take.
But that’s over the entire four years the Edition has been out.

Going back to ICv2. The role-playing game industry was $15 million in 2013. That’s when D&D wasn't releasing anything major to stores. This means the $10 million boost between 2013 and 2015 is pretty much D&D.
We can ballpark D&D’s sales then as $7.5M, 10, 20, 30, 40 for a total of roughly $107,500,000. Again, this is retail stores only. And the 2018 numbers aren’t out yet. Amazon can easily double this, if not triple.

Which is right about what we’d expect.
 

Mistwell

Hero
In regards to quarterlies and annuals, I'm not referring to name dropping on the internet. These are hard numbers that investors get in reports to their investments. In addition, I think Hasbro regularly makes the annual public and maybe even the quarterlies. These are reports on how Hasbro as a company is doing, and financials and other information.
You probably should look at the links you just dismissed as "name dropping on the internet."

None of the three were that. All three concerned quarterly and annual reports. The first was the transcript of a quarterly report call that's done each time with shareholders, and the second and third were interviews with the Hasbro CEO on CNBC's Mad Money show concerning the quarterly report that had just been released and the annual report. He gives some good numbers. His comments are covered by FTC regulations as forward looking statements.

Here are some of those comments from Hasbro Chairman and CEO Brian Goldner:

"Dungeons & Dragons is seeing its best year ever...People are more into 'Dungeons & Dragons' today than ever before...[Hasbro saw] double-digit new user growth [in the prior year]."
 
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Parmandur

Legend
I mean,if CEOs and Brand Directors are saying "best year ever" and "more people than ever" on the record to the media...seems legit.
 

Oofta

Title? I don't need no stinkin' title.
Back to real data.
Is that allowed? I thought this thread was about random tidbits of information posited as facts with just a hint corporate malfeasance. :confused:

But it is good that Waterdeep mod is selling well, I'd be curious to see what Ravnica does. Of the two, I'm looking forward to playing/running the former because it sounds like a solid city espionage campaign that I can adopt to my own campaign world. The latter? Meh. Feels more like a chance to cash in on MTG, but I'll still check out the reviews.
 

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