Pathfinder 2E Release Day Second Edition Amazon Sales Rank

[Porridge]

I've been using FREE Amazon Sales Estimator - Predict Your Sales | Rank Calculator to look at what the ranks mean. It surprising sometimes how big and how little a jump from its low of #6200 to a recent high of 1900 is. That's a 20% increase in monthly sales, if it continues. That's significant for a typically low margin industry. However, that is only 90 exrta books per month, if the calculator is correct.

For reference, 5th ed PHB at #30 earlier today is almost double that number of books per month, although this is also a recent high and probably won't last.

After poking around a bit, I found another estimator, TCK Publishing's Amazon Book Sales Calculator (using the sales per month entry) which yields significantly larger differences.

It puts D&D PHB sales at about 15-20 times those of the PF2 CRB, and PF2 Bestiary sales at about 40% of the PF2 CRB. (And it puts D&D Monster Manual sales at about 40% of the D&D PHB sales.)

But I have no idea which of these calculators is more reliable...

 

[gss000]

After poking around a bit, I found another estimator, TCK Publishing's Amazon Book Sales Calculator (using the sales per month entry) which yields significantly larger differences.

It puts D&D PHB sales at about 15-20 times those of the PF2 CRB, and PF2 Bestiary sales at about 40% of the PF2 CRB. (And it puts D&D Monster Manual sales at about 40% of the D&D PHB sales.)

But I have no idea which of these calculators is more reliable...

Thanks for that one! I completely agree on reliability questuon. If I had several of these calculators, I'd probably look at the range and average values to try and get a more trustworthy estimate. Unless there is a difference because of when the claculators were made or updated or some third party that rates them, it would be hard to know which calculator is more reliable.

It reminds me of marketing emails. Different sites will tell you different numbers for what is good or not. You can't just take one benchmark, but you look at them all and see how your situation relates.

 

[BryonD]

And after a solid week in the 2000s, it's finally broken the 2000 ceiling (with the PF2 CRB at #1984, and the PF2 Bestiary at #8892). No idea why.

And 24 hours later it is back under 4500. I really don't think all this means anything other than to imply that the method described recently upthread is more or less accurate (if not completely accurate). A big slug of sales (one would assume for some common end) spiked the place and that has rolled out of the scoring. (or, by the method, be discounted out of significance).

It is still crushing anything that isn't 5E, but IMO, remains way below where a PF tentpole could be.

 

[Zardnaar]

Calculators are interesting bpeopke think books sell in the thousands if they have a high sales rank. I've suspected for a while outside the top ten the sales numbers are in the tens per day not hundreds or thousands.

 

[Zardnaar]

After poking around a bit, I found another estimator, TCK Publishing's Amazon Book Sales Calculator (using the sales per month entry) which yields significantly larger differences.

It puts D&D PHB sales at about 15-20 times those of the PF2 CRB, and PF2 Bestiary sales at about 40% of the PF2 CRB. (And it puts D&D Monster Manual sales at about 40% of the D&D PHB sales.)

But I have no idea which of these calculators is more reliable...

We have some numbers for the starter set. Obviously not all sales are on Amazon but they have sold 150k+ average per year in North America.

 

[Porridge]

And 24 hours later it is back under 4500. I really don't think all this means anything other than to imply that the method described recently upthread is more or less accurate (if not completely accurate). A big slug of sales (one would assume for some common end) spiked the place and that has rolled out of the scoring. (or, by the method, be discounted out of significance).

It is still crushing anything that isn't 5E, but IMO, remains way below where a PF tentpole could be.

I’ve been checking the D&D PHB rank along with the PF2 CRB rank, and I’ve found their movements to be pretty closely correlated. E.g., when the PF2 CRB was in the 2000s the D&D PHB rank was around 30, when the PF2 CRB was in the low 5000s the D&D PHB rank was around 60, and now that the PF2 CRB is in the 4000s the D&D PHB rank is around 50.

This suggests that these short-term changes in rank have more to do with market forces on RPG sales in general than they do with the appeal of these particular games.

 

[BryonD]

I’ve been checking the D&D PHB rank along with the PF2 CRB rank, and I’ve found their movements to be pretty closely correlated. E.g., when the PF2 CRB was in the 2000s the D&D PHB rank was around 30, when the PF2 CRB was in the low 5000s the D&D PHB rank was around 60, and now that the PF2 CRB is in the 4000s the D&D PHB rank is around 50.

This suggests that these short-term changes in rank have more to do with market forces on RPG sales in general than they do with the appeal of these particular games.

I think the Xmas jump was exactly that.
The very recent suddenly spike on PF2 followed by an equally rapid fall is consistent with the model described previously. If we assume that the number is somewhere in the 1 to 2 dozen a day range and someone somewhere bought 150 copies for a promotion (and yes, I'm totally making that up as a for instance) then that would produce the step change pulse we observed.

In other words, even if we foolishly assume that this amazon tracking methodology is better than putting a wet finger in a breeze to predict rain, it would still be true that day-to-day and week-to-week are more subject to the noise then the signal.

And the big vague picture still says that PF2E is crushing anything not 5E, but not anywhere near where I think the PF brand tentpole could be.

 

[Mistwell]

I’ve been checking the D&D PHB rank along with the PF2 CRB rank, and I’ve found their movements to be pretty closely correlated. E.g., when the PF2 CRB was in the 2000s the D&D PHB rank was around 30, when the PF2 CRB was in the low 5000s the D&D PHB rank was around 60, and now that the PF2 CRB is in the 4000s the D&D PHB rank is around 50.

This suggests that these short-term changes in rank have more to do with market forces on RPG sales in general than they do with the appeal of these particular games.

PHB is #34 right now.
PF2 CRB is #4140 right now.

 

[Hussar]

PHB is #34 right now.
PF2 CRB is #4140 right now.

That is just astounding. That the core 5e books are STILL anywhere near the top 1000, let alone top 50, five years after release is just ... wow.

 

[Mistwell]

That is just astounding. That the core 5e books are STILL anywhere near the top 1000, let alone top 50, five years after release is just ... wow.

It's technically higher than that I just don't know how to calculate it. The PHB is in a number of combo packages that Amazon also sells.

For example, the Core Rules Gift Set (Special Foil Covers Edition with Slipcase, Player's Handbook, Dungeon Master's Guide, Monster Manual, DM Screen) currently rants #2,136 (for reference Pathfinder 2e Core Rulebook currently ranks #4,474).

But I don't know how to combine that gift set with the PHB itself. And there are a half-dozen of those combo categories, like the PHB with dice, or the PHB with dice and Complete Printable Kit, or the PHB with Dice and Dice Bag, etc., each with their own ranking.