Enevhar Aldarion
Hero
At the risk of getting us all flagged for religious talk, that is fine with me. But then, I am Agnostic to almost Atheist, so the fewer religious fanatics in the world, the better the world is to me.
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D&D and the rising pandemic
- Thread starter GreyLord
- Start date
At the risk of getting us all flagged for religious talk, that is fine with me. But then, I am Agnostic to almost Atheist, so the fewer religious fanatics in the world, the better the world is to me.
ad_hoc
(they/them)
To put America's 80 000 - 90 000 projected deaths in perspective -
Canada just shared their models showing 11 000 to 22 000 deaths.
The USA has 10x the population so that is the equivalent of 110 000 to 220 000 deaths.
The USA currently has almost 3x as many confirmed cases as Canada per capita (with fewer tests per capita) and has almost 4x as many deaths per capita.
Half of the USA is also not practicing social distancing.
So that 80k-90k death prediction? Don't believe it for a second. They probably picked the model with the most optimistic result rather than a realistic one.
Canada just shared their models showing 11 000 to 22 000 deaths.
The USA has 10x the population so that is the equivalent of 110 000 to 220 000 deaths.
The USA currently has almost 3x as many confirmed cases as Canada per capita (with fewer tests per capita) and has almost 4x as many deaths per capita.
Half of the USA is also not practicing social distancing.
So that 80k-90k death prediction? Don't believe it for a second. They probably picked the model with the most optimistic result rather than a realistic one.
Enevhar Aldarion
Hero
And yet, your now former, Health Minister took his family to the beach in violation of the lock down:
New Zealand health minister demoted after beach visit broke lockdown rules
David Clark called himself an ‘idiot’ for driving his family 20km to the beach on the first weekend of the national stay-at-home measures
www.theguardian.com
FrogReaver
As long as i get to be the frog
True, but considering the number of people violating lockdown orders actually in place, what are the odds that at least the same kinds of numbers per capita are not taking social distancing seriously where orders don’t exist?
A Mayor Cracked Down On Parties During The Coronavirus Lockdown. His Wife Defied Him.
After Clemson students party, officials enact more social-distancing restrictions
After police officers broke up a party Friday night, Clemson is considering how best to enforce social distancing guidelines at private residences amid COVID-19.www.greenvilleonline.com
See also the religious and political contrarians already mentioned in this thread.
small potatoes IMO.
FrogReaver
As long as i get to be the frog
true but we are doing enough to turn the tide. whatever we are doing is working. But what you are doing probably works faster
Theo R Cwithin
I cast "Baconstorm!"
That's why I'm wondering if there's that "knucklehead factor" I referred to. Is this sort of thing accounted for (or even accountable by) the sorts of models they run? If it is, I'd feel more secure in the models; if knuckleheads aren't figured in, then I'm more doubtful.
Unfortunately, my mathmuscles are so atrophied, I couldn't follow model details, anyway. So just gotta trust the experts.
FrogReaver
As long as i get to be the frog
i don’t believe covid-19 deaths depend on population at all. At some point population would be a limiting factor but we aren’t near that point yet.
population density matters though. But that is still not a per capita measure.
Istbor
Dances with Gnolls
Yep. Which is why I can't trust this claim on its face. Who are these experts? What are they basing this 'success' we are having on.
We haven't even hit the peak and by all indications some states are just starting to ramp up this week.
So many unknowns. And so much worry over how this will affect our economy.
Istbor
Dances with Gnolls
I definitely get what you are saying. The USA is a different beast however.
I am not even sure doing the type of lockdown NZ has done is even feasible here. Not only due to legal reasons and some states refusing to follow step, but some of out more... outspoken citizens would lose their stuff*. We already have freedom parties/protests. And plenty of people who are thinking the government is overreaching on this. Heck even our Attorney General was cited as saying they are watching and making sure we aren't trampling on rights too much right now.
Zardnaar
Legend
And yet, your now former, Health Minister took his family to the beach in violation of the lock down:
New Zealand health minister demoted after beach visit broke lockdown rules
David Clark called himself an ‘idiot’ for driving his family 20km to the beach on the first weekend of the national stay-at-home measures
And he had his portfolio stripped. At the time it wasn't banned and he followed the guidelines for social distancing.
It's also why they're using roadblocks this Easter.
They're pragmatic enough to realize not everyone's going to follow the rules. A certain % of failing to comply is built into the numbers.
The worst case scenario was 80000 dead. They projected 4000 cases we brought that down to 1000 a few days ago.
Going to the beach isn't going to spread virus if you do social distancing. It's just a pain if emergency services are required.
One of my local beaches, 29 degrees centigrade day in October, 9am.
Busy beach in January. This is banned.
Most don't have lifeguards.
It's a pain if people take their jetskies to the beaches/lakes then require help.
People have broken their bubbles to administer CPR. The idea is minimise it.
