D&D and the rising pandemic

[FrogReaver]

This is the key part of their model:

"COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"

That is not even close to being the case. That's the problem.

Their model is predicting 60 000 deaths.

That is only 4x as much as Canada's estimation with 10x the population. So their model is predicting that they come out of this much better than Canada does.

That just doesn't add up.

per capita doesn’t matter.

 

[briggart]

What is happening with all the dead in Italy, Spain and US? Is anyone even reporting on the distribution/disposal of the bodies?
EDIT: I have read a few articles about the those refrigerated trucks in the streets in the US which can house 44 bodies but surely there is plan thereafter. I mean there are only a limited amount of those trucks available.

In Italy, bodies are mostly being cremated. Like in the US, the issue is not really the long term arrangement, rather the short term capability of morgues and crematories. At peak epidemic, the number of deaths in the worst affected part of the country exceeded the capabilities of local crematories, so coffins had to be moved elsewhere for cremation.

 

[ad_hoc]

per capita doesn’t matter.

You're not making any sense.

But okay.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

small potatoes IMO.

There were 100+ at the Clemson gathering. Other parties of similar size have popped up.

To put that Clemson gathering in context, 121 people in this choir had a practice during the pandemic. As of this article published 03/29/2020, 45 members- just a tad over 1/3 of them- have been diagnosed with Covid-19, with 2 fatalities.

A choir decided to go ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens of members have COVID-19 and two are dead

The deadly outbreak among members of a choir has stunned health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.

www.latimes.com

Seasonal flu has an R value of 1.3-1.4, meaning each infected person on average passes it along to 1.4 people. If this happens 10 times, that’s 14 new cases.

Covid-19 has an R value of 3 or so. As Prof. Hugh Montgomery points out, 10 repetitions of this translates into 59,000 new cases.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

This is a disease where, if you get it someone else dies.

That’s the key message, and that isn’t reaching some people.

The head football coach at OSU is already talking about getting his guys back on campus. I’m paraphrasing- they’re young & healthy and can shrug it off.

Because he’s a football genius of sorts, nobody has pushed back with they’re young & healthy and can pass it along to others with ease.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

I did say that. The point is that America is not less dense than Canada.

My mistake. I thought you meant that America was 9x as dense as Canada.

per capita doesn’t matter.

In what way? I'm not sure I understand how that could be. I mean, I get that it's not a direct correlation, but you'd think it would "matter" at least a little, wouldn't it?

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

NYC has altered its policy on the unclaimed dead:

New York City will bury unclaimed bodies on a remote island after 14 days because coronavirus deaths are overwhelming morgues

The city typically waits 30 days before interring bodies in mass graves on Hart Island, but the coronavirus' death toll is overwhelming the system.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Eltab]

I'm going to be a contrarian:
The recovered Corona patients are a valuable resource. We need to study the antibodies with a goal of building out Corona-resistance throughout the general population. Ideally, that would mean vaccines. But more likely getting a shot of antibodies. What we will have to live with for a while is the idea that if you do get it, the chance of needing a hospital is exceedingly small, and the likelihood of needing Intensive Care is so small that our usual preparations for Flu Season are about the needed scale for the influx of patients. Medically-fragile people are going to have to hang out with each other while staying away from people who can 'take a hit' but get back up again. And vice versa.

So far we've been looking at this from the Medical point of view. But we need to get more broad-minded and consider Supply Chain problems: where will the new masks, gowns, malaria-drug pills come from when we use up the stocks in the hospitals' Supply Room now? Somebody is going to have to make them - alas that the Fabricate spell is only a thing in our imagination - and that means people out around each other again. Working. You know, operating the economy.

One other bit: Coronaviruses and humanity are going to share the planet for as far as anybody can foresee. Our response cannot be built around the idea "never let it touch me ever!" We can deal with the Common Cold, with influenza, with the other sicknesses that viruses similar to Corona cause. We have to be able to deal with this one too.

 

[Zardnaar]

Another example of a cluster identified here.

Bluff is a small town few thousand people.

Coronavirus: How a wedding reception in Bluff created NZ's biggest Covid-19 cluster

A wedding reception was held in Bluff four days before New Zealand went into lockdown. More than 80 people are now sick.

i.stuff.co.nz

TLDR
1 person spread to 87 people.

Wikipedia tells me Bluff has 1800 people.

It's in Southland in US terms the type if jokes that go around about Alabama or Kentucky we tell similar ones about Southland.

 

[Zardnaar]

44 new cases today, yesterday was 29. Second death 90 yo women. 1st one was 70 year old.