D&D and the rising pandemic

[Zardnaar]

I definitely get what you are saying. The USA is a different beast however.

I am not even sure doing the type of lockdown NZ has done is even feasible here. Not only due to legal reasons and some states refusing to follow step, but some of out more... outspoken citizens would lose their stuff*. We already have freedom parties/protests. And plenty of people who are thinking the government is overreaching on this. Heck even our Attorney General was cited as saying they are watching and making sure we aren't trampling on rights too much right now.

We don't have a lot of issues here other countries have. Cultures different here. Polite version is we don't have that mercenary edge Americans have (everything's for sale), or the left over class system UK has.

It's very laid back (bare feet in public), and the kiwi mentality avoids a lot of other problems.

By that I mean what are you? Kiwi.

 

[ad_hoc]

i don’t believe covid-19 deaths depend on population at all. At some point population would be a limiting factor but we aren’t near that point yet.

population density matters though. But that is still not a per capita measure.

The USA is 9x as dense as Canada.

Granted a lot of Canada is unpopulated but people are still pretty far apart compared to most countries.

 

[Zardnaar]

The USA is 9x as dense as Canada.

Granted a lot of Canada is unpopulated but people are still pretty far apart compared to most countries.

What I'm looking at is total travellers and tourists.

Per capita NZ has more tourists than USA by a factor of 3. US airports obviously have vastly more people going through total.

Australia is doing fairly well and they bungled it similar to UK. A single cruise ship has caused problems there, we banned cruise ships mid March iirc before lockdown by about a week.

Australia's the lucky country, population wise it's similar to NY state. NYC is getting it worse than Italy and Spain. Similar numbers but 1/3rd the population.

Population density definitely a factor IMHO. Not to hard to self isolate here, apartment living never caught on in any serious way.

They focused on contact tracing travellers and isolating positive tests. Then they expanded it to people in contact with positive hits, they're only starting testing the general population now.

They announced the alert system Saturday, had 2 cases of community spread same day or next day. Serious panic buying started Sunday, went to level 3 on Monday iirc, level 4 Wednesday and they had the economic stimulus plan the following weekend.

That Saturday was 20 days ago.

First week of lockdown everything was shut, freight collapsed overnight. They've loosened things up for delivery.

Old folks have priority delivery from the supermarkets, other orders they pack for you but you have to pick it up.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

The USA is 9x as dense as Canada.Granted a lot of Canada is unpopulated but people are still pretty far apart compared to most countries.

That's sort-of true, but a lot of that is mistake of math - if you take the population (relatively small) and divide it by the area (absolutely huge) then you get low-density. But the reality is, most of the country has nearly no-one living in it, and the majority of the population is actually along a band along the border. If you take that population and area by itself, you get a population density that's pretty similar to other countries.

The big cities (which is where most of our cases are) are reasonably dense.

 

[Umbran]

At the risk of getting us all flagged for religious talk, that is fine with me. But then, I am Agnostic to almost Atheist, so the fewer religious fanatics in the world, the better the world is to me.

We keep thinking of this disease in the form, "If I have contact with other people, I am at risk."

But, for most individuals, the risk is small. If you get it, you are most probably going to be asymptomatic. If you develop symptoms, you probably won't need to go to the hospital. If you do need to go to the hospital, you probably aren't going to die.

Ergo, those folks going to church? They aren't the ones going to die - sorry, Mr. Agnostic, but you're not gettign what you want. But, they're going to pass it to several people, and they will pass it to several more - so, statistically, very shortly in the chain after them, there are dead people. But those people won't be selected by religion - they'll be selected by random contact.

This is a disease where, if you get it someone else dies.

 

[ad_hoc]

That's sort-of true, but a lot of that is mistake of math - if you take the population (relatively small) and divide it by the area (absolutely huge) then you get low-density. But the reality is, most of the country has nearly no-one living in it, and the majority of the population is actually along a band along the border. If you take that population and area by itself, you get a population density that's pretty similar to other countries.

The big cities (which is where most of our cases are) are reasonably dense.

I did say that.

The point is that America is not less dense than Canada.

 

[Umbran]

Who are these experts?

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, or IHME, a research center at the University of Washington.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

What are they basing this 'success' we are having on.

Extensive modelling frequently updated with real data from the field.

We haven't even hit the peak and by all indications some states are just starting to ramp up this week.

Yes, but the rates of new cases is changing - that's what you have to watch, and may indicate that the peak is coming sooner, rather than later.

 

[ad_hoc]

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, or IHME, a research center at the University of Washington.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

Extensive modelling frequently updated with real data from the field.



Yes, but the rates of new cases is changing - that's what you have to watch, and may indicate that the peak is coming sooner, rather than later.

This is the key part of their model:

"COVID-19 projections assuming full social distancing through May 2020"

That is not even close to being the case. That's the problem.

Their model is predicting 60 000 deaths.

That is only 4x as much as Canada's estimation with 10x the population. So their model is predicting that they come out of this much better than Canada does.

That just doesn't add up.

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

We keep thinking of this disease in the form, "If I have contact with other people, I am at risk."

But, for most individuals, the risk is small. If you get it, you are most probably going to be asymptomatic. If you develop symptoms, you probably won't need to go to the hospital. If you do need to go to the hospital, you probably aren't going to die.

Ergo, those folks going to church? They aren't the ones going to die - sorry, Mr. Agnostic, but you're not gettign what you want. But, they're going to pass it to several people, and they will pass it to several more - so, statistically, very shortly in the chain after them, there are dead people. But those people won't be selected by religion - they'll be selected by random contact.

This is a disease where, if you get it someone else dies.

Oh, I know and the average religious person is alright, except when they form mindless mobs. No, it is more the fanatics, like I said. The type more likely to shoot non-believers than to shake their hand. For example, I do feel bad about the average Iranian dying from this, but their leaders who died? I won't finish that thought or I will be crossing the line in the rules here.

 

[Zardnaar]

CNN has done a write up on what we did. Couldn't remember exact dates.

New Zealand reported a decline in new coronavirus cases for the fourth consecutive day. The country is still tightening its border restrictions | CNN

New Zealand has managed to do something that many countries wish they could achieve: for four straight days, it has reported a decline in new coronavirus cases.

www.google.com

Washington Post also did one but it's behind a paywall.