D&D and the rising pandemic

[Zardnaar]

Might get a chuckle.

NZers more trusting in news outlets than other countries - survey

A new report finds New Zealanders have a relatively high trust in news compared to other developed countries, despite "strong concerns" about poor journalism in this country.

www.rnz.co.nz

It's why I use BBC and Reuter's a lot.

The tribal authorities blocked the roads. Tourists weren't happy and it's if dubious legality but the cops were fine with it.

Zero cases of Covid though. Tourists weren't happy but tough luck.

Lockdown a chance to live off the land, whānau say

Whānau with three generations under one roof have said lockdown has given them time to transfer whakapapa knowledge and return to living off the land.

www.rnz.co.nz

Great leap backwards.

Translation (approx)

Whanau- family
Whakapapa- extended family group
Iwi -tribe
Mokopuna- grandkids
Whare- house

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I’m thinking, as things progress and we start reopening our various communities, one of the things that’s going to be found in more stores- including convenience stores- is masks of some sort.

Maybe HomeEc and similar classes will return to schools* and kids will learn how to make their own, along with basic cooking, etc.

Even the N95 masks will eventually become more (but not commonly) available in the next few years, or perhaps something new that is easier for the regular Joes and Janes to use.



* we are the virus

 

[Zardnaar]

I’m thinking, as things progress and we start reopening our various communities, one of the things that’s going to be found in more stores- including convenience stores- is masks of some sort.

Maybe HomeEc and similar classes will return to schools* and kids will learn how to make their own, along with basic cooking, etc.

Even the N95 masks will eventually become more (but not commonly) available in the next few years, or perhaps something new that is easier for the regular Joes and Janes to use.



* we are the virus

Probably won't need them. Either we get a vaccine or by the time you can make enough the virus burns itself out.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I’m not optimistic about the vaccine being available anywhere near the short end of the estimated timetable.

 

[Zardnaar]

I’m not optimistic about the vaccine being available anywhere near the short end of the estimated timetable.

Neither an I. Pandemics usually burn themselves out simply by killing off the vulnerable. Eventually you run out of vulnerable people.

Three charts here were basically.

Lock down early, get it over and done with in 2-3 months. Look out for further flair ups.

Herd immunity. Kill a lot of people up front. Get it over and done with ASAP.

Some mix of the two. Drags it out to the end of the year assuming no second wave.

So Sweden's approach might be better long term less people die.

Partial reopen Tuesday here, another two weeks for a almost normal. But it's a return to pre mass air travel, tourism, immigration etc.

Best case scenario is we can travel to Australia, Singapore, and some Pacific Islands in the near future. Assuming we wipe it out.

At best only way in will be from similar countries and a rare few exemptions.

One idea floating around is let some ultra rich in, price is build houses for the poor.

 

[Umbran]

We are already there.

No where near.

No.

Yes

You are wrong.

I am right.

Mod Note:
The subject matter of this thread requires significantly greater maturity than either of you is displaying in this exchange.

Show that maturity, and rather better manners and respect for each other, and everyone in this thread, or your continued participation in this discussion will be at an end.

 

[Umbran]

Neither an I. Pandemics usually burn themselves out simply by killing off the vulnerable. Eventually you run out of vulnerable people.

That's not entirely correct.

The 1918 flu - was the flu. In general, if you get the flu and live, you develop antibodies to that flu that will protect you for about six months. The flu is, in this sense, a bit self-limiting.

The various runs of the black plague were beaten either by changing human behavior, or by killing off so many people the thing couldn't spread any more - nobody was "not vulnerable".

Cholera outbreaks are beaten not by herd immunity, but by enforcing sanitation - again, not about individuals being vulnerable.

The idea of herd immunity is comforting, but does not necessarily hold.

 

[FrogReaver]

That's not entirely correct.

The 1918 flu - was the flu. In general, if you get the flu and live, you develop antibodies to that flu that will protect you for about six months. The flu is, in this sense, a bit self-limiting.

citation for that timeframe for flu antibodies please?

 

[Umbran]

citation for that timeframe for flu antibodies please?

For vaccines ("VE" = vaccine effectiveness):
"A multiseason (2011–12 through 2014–15) analysis from the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness (U.S. Flu VE) Network found that VE decreased by approximately 7% per month for influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B and 6%–11% per month for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (21). VE remained greater than zero for at least 5 to 6 months after vaccination. An analysis of the 2010–11 through 2013–14 seasons noted protection estimates ranging from 54% to 67% during days 0 through 180 postvaccination; estimated VE was not statistically significant during the period between days 181 and 365 (20). A third multiseason analysis (2010–11 through 2014–15) conducted in Europe noted a decline in VE to 0% at 111 days postvaccination for influenza A(H3N2) viruses. VE against influenza B viruses decreased more slowly, and VE against influenza A(H1N1) viruses remained roughly stable at 50%–55% through the influenza season (24). "

-from the CDC Prevention and Control of Seasonal Influenza with Vaccines: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices — United States, 2019–20 Influenza Season

 

[FrogReaver]

For vaccines ("VE" = vaccine effectiveness):
"A multiseason (2011–12 through 2014–15) analysis from the U.S. Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness (U.S. Flu VE) Network found that VE decreased by approximately 7% per month for influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B and 6%–11% per month for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (21). VE remained greater than zero for at least 5 to 6 months after vaccination. An analysis of the 2010–11 through 2013–14 seasons noted protection estimates ranging from 54% to 67% during days 0 through 180 postvaccination; estimated VE was not statistically significant during the period between days 181 and 365 (20). A third multiseason analysis (2010–11 through 2014–15) conducted in Europe noted a decline in VE to 0% at 111 days postvaccination for influenza A(H3N2) viruses. VE against influenza B viruses decreased more slowly, and VE against influenza A(H1N1) viruses remained roughly stable at 50%–55% through the influenza season (24). "

-from the CDC Prevention and Control of Seasonal Influenza with Vaccines: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices — United States, 2019–20 Influenza Season

forgive my ignorance but is vaccine effectiveness and antibodies against flu virus X the same thing?