D&D and the rising pandemic

[Zardnaar]

Here's the other sneaky trick with the re-openings in the US:

once the gov says you aren't forced to close, you lose your government financial support if you choose to stay closed anyway.

This also cascades to the workers. if your boss says you have to work, and you say "no, it's not safe." Then you voluntarily quit. Changing your status for qualifying for unemployment.

The whole thing a is a screwjob for workers and a trap for employers via who funds the unemployment checks if they decide to remain closed.

Read something similar on another forum.

We haven't had the collapse in jobs losses yet. USA 26 million, NZ 30k (900k per capita cf USA).

Wage subsidy is for 3 months and they paid out ASAP and all at once. Friends small business got 30k.

They're basically paying you to stay at home.

It's gonna suck but it will suck less. Unemployment expected to hit 9-13% but we probably won't melt down.

Idk what I'm gonna do post lockdown. Brother lost his job (pilot)

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Yep, I’ve seen a lot of restaurant owners complaining about EXACTLY that.

The lifting of restrictions ALSO drastically affects what kind and amount of state and federal aid business owners qualify for, again, a sore spot for restauranteurs who are caught between the Scylla and Charybdis of losing all kinds of supports while not being able to open at capacity without violating social distancing orders and/or endangering patrons and employees.

As pointed out here, the margins on a lot of restaurants are slim enough that they need to run at 85% capacity to stay afloat, and in a lot of states, the orders are restricting them to 25-50% capacity. The death of 1000 cuts.

Award-winning chef Andrew Zimmern says restaurants are facing a near-extinction event and pinpoints the real problems in America's supply chain

"If we don't backstop restaurants, I believe we are looking at a near-extinction event for them," the acclaimed chef Andrew Zimmern says.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Zardnaar]

Yep, I’ve seen a lot of restaurant owners complaining about EXACTLY that.

The lifting of restrictions ALSO drastically affects what kind and amount of state and federal aid business owners qualify for, again, a sore spot for restauranteurs who are caught between the Scylla and Charybdis of losing all kinds of supports while not being able to open at capacity without violating social distancing orders and/or endangering patrons and employees.

Restaurants gonna be boned. Even if things are open consumer confidence isn't gonna be there. In some cases the money isn't gonna be there.

We had 60-80% of the workforce sitting at home still can't quite wipe it out and things are slowly opening up.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Yep. And nobody’s going to want to pay 2-4x the price of pre-lockdown meals, which is what it may take for them to cover rent and taxes.

(And if property taxes don’t go down, rents won’t either, which will translate into more landlords fighting to NOT have their property zoned for restaurants.)

Some will do better than others. One of my favorite local Chinese places has had a dead seating area for a couple years now. BUT if you dine in, you’d see a constant stream of customers doing takeout and delivery drivers from Über Eats, Grubhub, and the like. Something like 65%+ of their revenue has become takeout.

 

[Zardnaar]

Yep. And nobody’s going to want to pay 2-4x the price of pre-lockdown meals, which is what it may take for them to cover rent and taxes.

(And if property taxes don’t go down, rents won’t either, which will translate into more landlords fighting to NOT have their property zoned for restaurants.)

Some will do better than others. One of my favorite local Chinese places has had a dead seating area for a couple years now. BUT if you dine in, you’d see a constant stream of customers doing takeout and delivery drivers from Über Eats, Grubhub, and the like. Something like 65%+ of their revenue has become takeout.

It will be a very simple process. The ones that can do take out and have a loyal customer base will survive. The ones that don't won't but there customers will go somewhere else.

Really cheap places will survive. Food trucks look good. Tourist trap cities gonna hurt.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Not quite that simple. Some dishes & cuisines really don’t fare well as takeout.

Think about a nice French restaurant, or a good steakhouse. Add 15 minutes of travel time and you’ve transmogrified a nice dining experience into solid, 24 karat Meh.

 

[Zardnaar]

Not quite that simple. Some dishes & cuisines really don’t fare well as takeout.

Think about a nice French restaurant, or a good steakhouse. Add 15 minutes of travel time and you’ve transmogrified a nice dining experience into solid, 24 karat Meh.

Yeah those places that can't do it won't do well.

Cheap stuff and high end stuff should be reasonably ok the stuff in the middle is in trouble.

Here for example you can afford fish and chips on welfare. Rich people also eat it as it's a cultural thing.

Hipster burger joints though may be in trouble.

 

[Eltab]

Not quite that simple. Some dishes & cuisines really don’t fare well as takeout.

Think about a nice French restaurant, or a good steakhouse. Add 15 minutes of travel time and you’ve transmogrified a nice dining experience into solid, 24 karat Meh.

IME, the french fries at most sit-down restaurants (Steak'N'Shake) do not do well when you insert a 15-minute drive time between the fryer and the table. Fast food fries (McDonalds) however hold up ok - but may get cold if they were packed on top.

 

[Zardnaar]

IME, the french fries at most sit-down restaurants (Steak'N'Shake) do not do well when you insert a 15-minute drive time between the fryer and the table. Fast food fries (McDonalds) however hold up ok - but may get cold if they were packed on top.

It's why we almost always dine in.

Pizza holds up alright, Uber eats not so much. Chinese and Indian can also be decent delivered. Even then dine in.

Schwarma also not to bad if you're quick but it's tasty cold as well

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

...and our houseguest (Master’s degree & former PhD candidate) is openly musing about how suspicious it is that hydrochloraquine- available as a generic- is failing in clinical trials while Gilead‘s remdesivir- still under a patent- is succeeding.

And that’s not the craziest thing she uttered in the same 30 minute window.

I've known this woman 30+years, but it seems more and more like I didn’t know her at all. Her son has extended an offer to her to come life with him and his family in Florida after the crisis has abated. I sincerely hope she accepts.