I'm guessing she gets the bag back, but it will be A Thing. Kate will be doing something stupidly heroic to get it back or keep it safe or something.Anybody else think she's not getting that bag back?
As for the watch, I'm pretty sure it's not Tony's. Clint sees it as important because it will implicate someone he cares about, and it seems pretty clear that it's someone who's still alive but staying under the radar. Top candidates would be Laura, Fury, and Steve, with Coulson being a dark horse.