The fighter PC "presented" is not using my stats, is not using my race, and actually has nothing to do with the discussion.
They have everything to do with the discussion because they're BOG standard 5th level single classed PCs with nothing special or broken or fancy about them.
Against an opponet with a shield, if he hit with Booming Blade and was also using patient defense he likely would not stay in melee and would move away, trading the AOO (at disadvantage and with potential shield spell) for the BB movement damage. He would only use GFB if there was another enemey within 5 feet or some reason he needed to do fire damage.
You already moved 30' to get to melee range this turn, so you're not moving far. I also have a Bow, and am actually better with it than my sword, so it's a moot point.
You are wrong. The chance of rolling greater than a 9 with disadvantage is 36% (slightly better than 1 in 3) so what I highlighted in red above is factually incorrect. Statistically the most likely scenario is BOTH attacks miss, so they should both miss. If you action surge and attack 4 times the most likely outcome is one of them will hit with disadvantage. So with action surge you should hit once and cause shield to be cast.
Err... I didnt action surge till turn 3 or 4 when your shield spells were burnt out.
And a 1 in 3, followed by another 1 in 3 means
statistically speaking, 1 attack should actually hit. A 36 percent chance, followed up by another 36 percent chance generates a much higher probability of a successful attack landing than does your singular 45 percent hit chance (with a slight possibility that both hit).
A predetermined decision to use precision if you miss increases your base chance to 56% on a single attack without shield, but this gets tricky because shield comes AFTER a hit so precision comes before shield and a most of the time shield will cancel the precision if it is used after your roll. Further if you roll high enough to hit without precision, and shield is used you can't go back and add precision. So dealing with precision is statistically difficult unless you use a rules base for it. If you don't use precision you are less likely to hit and less likely to trigger shield. If you do use precision the chance to hit agaisnt shield is almost identical to the base chance to hit without shield but you are more likely to trigger shield. If you are only
I play the odds. My average d8 roll is 4.5, so I never use precise strike unless I am
no more than 4 away from your AC.
Accordingly Precise attack is only used in one of two circumstances:
1) When I miss your base AC of 16 by 4 or less. So (with the Bow at +7) it's used on base D20 rolls of 5-8. And every attack roll has a a 64 percent chance of generating a roll of at least 5 (presuming disadvantage).
You would presumably cancel that out with
shield, but that's OK. You have 2 x
shields, and I have 4 x superiority dice.
2) If
shield has already been used, or if my attack roll dice come up in the 10-13 range (for a final attack roll of 17-20) - which happens at least 30 percent of the time with disadvantage - I also use a sup dice, because I either am (or am likely to be) aiming to hit AC 21.
I factored bad rolling by me in the first 2 turns, so I only hit once on turn one (that you negated with shield) and on turn 2 I had to use a precise strike just to land a hit at all (that you also negated with shield).
So on turn 1 I only managed a single attack roll of 9 (from two attempts, which I had a roughly 2/3 chance of getting factoring in two attacks) and on turn 2 I managed a single attack roll in the 10-13 range from two attempts (which I had a 50 percent chance of getting, factoring in two attacks), that you managed to successfully negate with shield anyway (so I also rolled poorly on the d8, getting a 1-3 on the D8, and still not high enough to hit your shielded AC).
Regardless of my poor rolling, you're totally undamaged at the end of my turn 2, and out of spell slots, and with 1 ki point remaining.
The AC in your example included a shield, so you don't really have an option other than using a sword or throwing a weapon (and only getting 1 attack). You could use an action to doff the shield.
No it didnt. Plate, AC 18. I use a Greatsword and Bow.