Henadic Theologian
Legend
Sure - though it's a long ways out for a bet. 2 years until the 50th anniversary. What timespan are you thinking? An announcement before the end of 2024 of a Greyhawk release?
(I'd also say it has to be a legitimate Greyhawk release, not a stealth release like Ghosts of Saltmarsh where they publish revamped older material and discuss Greyhawk as a possible setting - I think another Ghosts of Saltmarsh type release is very likely as a 50th anniversary release, if they can figure out what older adventures they have left to revamp).
I don't think that Saltmarsh even counts as a visit honestly, it's not a meaningful exploration of the setting and isn't even marketed as a Greyhawk book, part of it was taken from Mystara, and it had options for setting it in various other settings. Not a visit, just an oversized cameo.
I don't know what an Avatar bet is, but my imaginary money is unfortunately kind of split, as I fully expect both:
A) An update to the FR by or on the 50th, with a much wider-ranging book than SCAG.
B) Greyhawk presented as an adventure, similar to Dragonlance. Probably an update to some "classic" adventure that's already been updated a bunch in other editions.
I suspect both will be true, an FR Slipcase (the revisit) and a first visit for Greyhawk, a remake or new adventure for say Caatle Greyhawk.
A bit more on why I think FR is (far) more unlikely than GH, and even maybe that it would be unwise for WotC to publish Greyhawk.
If they go with "Greyhawk classic," they'll make long-time fans happy, and maybe bring on a few new fans, but it is likely too different from contemporary D&D to please the new fan-base. The effect would be somewhat similar to playing an old black-and-white film to a Zennial. Maybe a very small minority would like it, but most would find it too old-fashioned and dislike the lack of color.
If they created some kind of "new Greyhawk" with contemporary sensibilities in mind, they would upset the long-term fan-base, and probably not be offering anything substantially new to the larger base that they couldn't find in the Realms or Exandria.
Of the two, I think the former is the better choice - but probably doesn't make good economic sense, or at least before or instead of the Forgotten Realms.
Your post is kind of confusing first you say FR is less likely then GH, then make a variety of points as to why FR makes more sense.
Anyways my thoughts
1. The Forgotten Realms fan base is much larger then Greyhawk and their is simply more demand for FR products. There is a reason why FR gets the movie, MtG set, multiple board games, future TV shows, while Greyhawk collects dust, with Greyhawk refugees showing up in FR.
2. They will want maximum synergy with the FR movie, which could generate piles of new FR fans.
4. They can reuse some of the FR MtG art.
5. Greyhawk hasn't had a proper first visit, so it can't have a revisit
6. FR always gets somekind of new setting book with each new edition
7. FR fans have been complaining for years that regions outside the Swordcoast got very little attention in the SCAG and about faulty mechanics.
8. FR originally had a bunch of mass combat modules and later a real time strategy game, it makes alot of sense to get one of these Battle Games.
9. They have been indicating for awhile now that they want to rework races in FR for awhile now. Lorendrow, Avendrow, Unidrow, and more.
10. They want more multiculturalism and FR is the most diverse setting in D&D. They can get cultural consultants to update various regions.
I could continue, but I think I made my points.
PS what is an Avatar Bet?