D&D (2024) What happens if One DnD fails?

[Greg Benage]

Is it ironic that the one time it did get huge under their stewardship wasn't really because of anything they did?

More than that -- it got huge when they were actively ignoring it for once.

 

[Weiley31]

Then WoTC rolls their third Death Saving Throw.

 

[Psikosis]

So the worst (for WotC and Hasbro) happens. One DnD launches and instantly makes 4e look like a record success. Meanwhile all the players just continue quietly playing 5e instead.

This is a question which has been on my mind since before the OGL disaster, as pretty much every single person I've talked to plans to just keep on playing 5e rather than switching to One DnD.

Do WotC/Hasbro double down on it and keep pushing it hoping for it to eventually become popular? Do they do a 4e and try to push out a replacement edition as fast as possible? Do they try to force people to switch by removing all the 5e tools from DnD Beyond?

Or do the higher ups at Hasbro just decide the brand isn't possible anymore, and throw the entire thing into the bin of dead IPs?

I think they've substantively hurt themselves, including OneD&D and maybe even the upcoming movie. They won't throw the IP in the trash, but if OneD&D fails to achieve commercial success, they will have confirmation they've created a problem for themselves. I'm already not at all interested in OneD&D. Nothing is nearly "broken" enough in 5e to make spend money to fix it. I'm happy with my paper books, resin dice, and in-person gamers. There's nothing in OneD&D I need or want. After this debacle, I'm even less interested because how can I trust them with my data and that my digital purchases will not be taken away at some point?

 

[Shiroiken]

If the roll out is a 3.0 to 3.5 and not a 4e to Essentials it will flip the players over time. The players will want the new options and the DMs may want the corrected rules and the nerfs on certain things. If it is a 6e and not a 5.simething, then who knows.

I think this is the $1B question. Based on what we've see so far, this is very much a Revised 5E/5.5E than a 6E, so I think that regardless of the nonsense concerning the OGL, it will be at the very least a moderate success. If it were to completely fail, I think this would be because of the OGL battle and not because of 1D&D itself.

 

[THEMNGMNT]

This whole situation bums me out. 5E is my favorite version of D&D. This is an exciting time to be a fan. OneD&D is built on the same chassis. The future was looking really bright. Now the whole viability of the brand is at risk because of unnecessary corporate overreach. Dumb, Wizards. Dumb.

 

[kenada]

If 6e fails, we can wait six years for 7e, and it’ll probably do okay.

 

[FallenRX]

It will likely be fine, because unless 4e, they are making a actual dnd game, that is also compatible with the previous edition.

We dont even know if its 6E yet.

 

[UngainlyTitan]

Define failure: I do not think that there is enough difference between 5e and One for a real likelihood of failure as a ttrpg even by historical standards. Now WotC and Hasbro's ambitions for D&D, is a different matter. I think that that is vested in the VTT and the monetisation strategy. This could fail, it is a real risk. Particularity if they cannot stop existing IP issued under the OGL from continuing. Mostly becuse that muddies the waters with regard to automation support on non WoTC VTT. If I were a VTT maker that does not have a secure licence situation extening over the next 5 years or so I would be looking at how to make rules automation easy for DMs and players while also being agnostic as to the ruleset.
Mind you, I think that, that risk is small. Still the VTT would want to be a very compelling package to draw people in. It needs to really add value to DMs in the first instance.
The other thing is the patience of management and investors. I think that WoTC has the resources to make that VTT a success in the long run but has the investors the patience to throw that much money at it.

 

[mamba]

OneD&D doesn't really matter. What matters are the movie (and, to a much lesser extent the TV show) and D&D Beyond subscriptions. Hasbro are betting big on both of these, so if they bomb...

agreed, and I for one have lost all interest in their movie, shows or a DDB subscription (didn't have one, but this essentially ensures I will never have one...)

If D&D shrinks back into something that Hasbro lets live on the side, I am perfectly fine with that, seems a much better position to be in anyway. They Eye of Sauron can search for things to extort elsewhere

 

[Reynard]

Assuming actual backward compatibility, the new core set could "fail" while the first big adventure or monster book made for it could still sell well.

In that case, I think it would be a clear signal to WotC that 5E is fine the way it is and they would probably just keep serving it up that way and quietly ignore the new Core rules.
But I don't think that's likely. Grousing to the contrary, I think anyone still playing 5E when the 1D&D core set comes out will switch over sooner rather than later. I'm guessing the PHB wil be the best seller by far, though, and the DMG the worst. The Monster Manual's sales will depend on the art, mostly, I think.