OK; that's fine for D&D. My question was around games where a hard move must be preceded by a soft move; at what point if ever does that soft move's statue of limitations run out, or put another way is there any limit on how long can pass between the soft move and the hard move?
Hard moves don't have to be preceded by soft moves, and soft moves don't have to lead into hard moves.
Soft moves are moves without
immediate consequences. "You enter a room with statues and a fountain in it. What do you do?" or "As you sneak into the room, you spot the guards, but they're busy playing cards and don't seem to have noticed you." The PCs can then do something and the things you talked about--the statues, the fountains, the guards--aren't going to immediately affect them. They can ignore the statues or examine them; they can try to sneak past the guards or wait there until the guards leave.
Hard moves have an immediate consequence, especially one that puts the PC in harm's way. "You touch the statue and it springs to life, swinging its fists at you and knocking you back a few feet! Take 2-harm from its stony blow!" or "You sneak into the room and you spot the guards. They seem to be playing cards and don't seem to have noticed you--but then your slight movement seems to have caught the eyes of one of them, and he looks up and sees you!" The PCs can then try to fight or flee, or even try to talk the statue or guards down, but they can't ignore them.
The game Root has good examples of how any particular GM move could be either hard or soft. For one of them, "Make them an offer to get their way," the example soft move is for the mayor to say "I'm going to need a scapegoat; go plant this evidence on the captain of the guard. Then I can help you," while the hard move is for the mayor to say "I'm going to need a scapegoat and it's going to have to be you; nobody else will work for this. Go cause some problems and make sure that you're seen doing it. Then I can help you." In this case, there isn't an
instant consequence for the players after the hard move is used, but if they want to get their way, then there
will be danger aimed directly at them. With the soft move, the players will be slightly inconvenienced, since they have to do a thing before they get what they want, but they will be in very minimal danger--it would be easy for them to sneak into the captain's house when they're away, plant the evidence, and sneak away, nobody the wiser. With the hard move, no matter what they do, they
have to be in harm's way and very likely will get hurt in the process.
I should have clarified: No Roll Without Reason only applies to players. The GM asking you to roll, even without explanation, counts as a valid reason. (I get my players to roll all the time without saying why; sometimes to avoid giving the player info the character wouldn't know unless the roll succeeds, other times to disguise meaningful rolls e.g. I might get three players to roll but really only need a roll from one of them) But a player can't roll without a reason or rationale. Saying "I roll perception" without saying what it is you're trying to perceive or (in some cases) what steps you're taking in order to best look/listen/whatever ain't gonna fly.
I'm not sure that the GM asking you to roll all the time
is a valid reason. Or rather, it's an unnecessary reason. As a GM, I have never found that obfuscating the purpose of the rolls makes the game any more interesting than flat-out telling the PCs what to roll. And as a player, I have found such things to be frustrating and annoying rather than something that raises the tension. Maybe it works better if you have forever GMs and the other players never learn your tricks, but since nearly everyone at my table takes their turn GMing, we all know these tricks and rarely fall for them.
And rolling where "no change" is one of the possible outcomes is not a problem, provided at least one other possible outcome has (potential) significance.
Here we disagree. Rolling where "no change" is one of the outcomes means that there's a good chance that time--both the time spent dealing with the obstacle and the time spent
making the obstacle--was wasted. We only get to play for about two hours each week; I don't want to waste it on rolls that don't mean anything.