D&D (2024) Predictions for Playtest packet 7's arrival

[Parmandur]

I keep seeing this and assuming it’s a typo, but it’s happening so often and so consistently… you know it’s probably, right?

Yes, fat thumbs and a bad autocorrect.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

That‘s making a few assumptions that are not necessary.

Is it?

They have something like 90% of the PHB text done.

Do they? Where'd you read that?

They’re not reworking things from the ground up at this point, only tweaking and iterating on what’s been released in the UAs. And there’s no reason to assume they’re not months ahead of what they’re showing us.

I assume that they are, but things take time.

There’s a good chance the art is underway and/or more than half done at this point…depending on how much is new.

I agree, but isn't that also "making a few assumptions"?

They’ll already be working on mockups of the book’s layout and design…assuming they’re not keeping the current design.

I would be SHOCKED if they kept the current design! That's crazy talk!

Dropping in the finalized text and making sure it flows around the design takes time, but it doesn’t take that long.

Yeah, I agree. I talk about it a few posts up.

Unless they’re printing in China or Europe they won’t have to worry about printing and distribution delays.

They've talked about the difficulties of going to press with the size of their print runs. They're printing in USA, as far as I know, but why would that prevent possible delays? IME, while most of the troubles of the past few years have been worked out, there's still quite the line-ups at the printers. They have a lot of clout, but they've still got to work to a schedule that has quite a bit of lead-time (again, as far as I've been told).

Checking the credits page suggests they’re printing the majority of their books in the US.

Yes, these days they are.

Same with the MM. It all depends on how much they change things. But we haven’t seen any of that yet.

That's kind of my point. They've talked about the MM & DMG playtests being playtest 11-14, I think, which at the current rate is FEB, APR, JUN, & AUG. I mean, that would be nuts, so I think we might see them go back to monthly in the new year and make that JAN-APR. We really don't know.

From what they’ve said about the DMG, that will definitely be the last to print. They’re basically rewriting the thing. At least I hope they are.

Oh, they're definitely rewriting the thing. How far along they are, though, is anyone's guess.

 

[overgeeked]

Is it?

Yes.

Do they? Where'd you read that?

From the fact that they’re not playtesting 90% of the PHB. Most of the changes we’ve seen are focused on the classes, most of those have been rolled back. A few tweaks to spells, exhaustion, and inspiration. Easy enough to drop that text where the 2014 text is. Adding a column to the weapons table and an explanatory section. Otherwise the rest of the book is untouched except a few wording tweaks.

I assume that they are, but things take time.

Nowhere near as much time as people think.

I agree, but isn't that also "making a few assumptions"?

It assumes they’re not incompetent, yes.

I would be SHOCKED if they kept the current design! That's crazy talk!

The covers will likely change to show they’re different. But that’s an assumption. They’re talking up how this is a revision and not a new edition. So they might change the internals, might not. How much did the layout and design change between 3E and 3.5? Honest question, I wasn’t chasing current D&D at the time.

They've talked about the difficulties of going to press with the size of their print runs. They're printing in USA, as far as I know, but why would that prevent possible delays?

In the sense of not having to wait for a boat from China.

That's kind of my point. They've talked about the MM & DMG playtests being playtest 11-14

Exactly. Ten increasingly thick UAs to do the PHB. Four to do both the MM and DMG. There’s far more design work to playtest from the PHB than the other two combined. The MM is all about numbers. They can run spreadsheets for that. If we’re really lucky they’ll swipe ideas from 4E and/or Flee, Mortals and make monsters more than boring bags of hit points. But they have to keep lip-service compatibility with existing modules. But…maybe not. They can always update the numbers and stat blocks in new printings.

Oh, they're definitely rewriting the thing. How far along they are, though, is anyone's guess.

Again, as long as they’re not incompetent they’ll be well under way.

 

[Parmandur]

They've talked about the MM & DMG playtests being playtest 11-14, I think, which at the current rate is FEB, APR, JUN, & AUG. I mean, that would be nuts, so I think we might see them go back to monthly in the new year and make that JAN-APR. We really don't know.

They only said "Packets 11+", which is barely a commitment to 12 packets. I doubt it will go to 14.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

They only said "Packets 11+", which is barely a commitment to 12 packets. I doubt it will go to 14.

Weird. I thought that I had read 14. I'll defer to your expertise. Still, 12 would be June at the current rate. (I think I miscounted before).

 

[FitzTheRuke]

From the fact that they’re not playtesting 90% of the PHB. Most of the changes we’ve seen are focused on the classes, most of those have been rolled back. A few tweaks to spells, exhaustion, and inspiration. Easy enough to drop that text where the 2014 text is. Adding a column to the weapons table and an explanatory section. Otherwise the rest of the book is untouched except a few wording tweaks.

I find it slightly amusing that we started this aside with you saying that I'd made a lot of assumptions (which you're right, I did!) and then you go on to make a lot of assumptions, some of which I can say with confidence are not quite correct.

Nowhere near as much time as people think.

That's interesting, because I USED to think that things were quick, until actual experience taught me otherwise. Perhaps I've overextended in the other direction? Do you have experience in publishing?

It assumes they’re not incompetent, yes.

Same thing here. I usually assume that they're not incompetent, but they've talked about how rushed the 2014 DMG was, and IIRC NEXT was a significantly longer playtest. Again, it's possible that I've overcorrected. I still think that they know what they're doing, but I don't know what they're doing. Some of their actions have me skeptical. I mean, I expect that they'll work it out and know what they're up to... but I accept that I also could be wrong about htat.

The covers will likely change to show they’re different. But that’s an assumption.

This one I really DON'T think is an assumption at all. They absolutely WILL have completely new layout, design, and some new art. Sure, some art is going to be reused - they've be doing that for quite some time now, but there will be new art. There's no chance. None. That there won't be new covers.

They’re talking up how this is a revision and not a new edition. So they might change the internals, might not. How much did the layout and design change between 3E and 3.5? Honest question, I wasn’t chasing current D&D at the time.

They were different. How different, I don't recall. The covers were similar, but they weren't the same. This is really a different animal than that. Like, by a lot.

In the sense of not having to wait for a boat from China.

Yeah, but there's backlogs - and they've talked about how they can't get their sizable print runs done at the same time. Meaning that they're going to tax the system with these books. Yes, it might be worse shipping from China, sure.

Exactly. Ten increasingly thick UAs to do the PHB. Four to do both the MM and DMG. There’s far more design work to playtest from the PHB than the other two combined. The MM is all about numbers. They can run spreadsheets for that. If we’re really lucky they’ll swipe ideas from 4E and/or Flee, Mortals and make monsters more than boring bags of hit points. But they have to keep lip-service compatibility with existing modules. But…maybe not. They can always update the numbers and stat blocks in new printings.

Yeah, I agree with all of this!

Again, as long as they’re not incompetent they’ll be well under way.

Here's hoping! (Keep in mind that the Playtests were originally supposed to be Monthly, but after missing nearly every original date, they pushed them back - and then still missed a date or two. Scheduling has already proven to vex them. Again - I don't deny - I hope they're on top of it. I think that they are. But my faith doesn't go very deep.

 

[Parmandur]

Weird. I thought that I had read 14. I'll defer to your expertise. Still, 12 would be June at the current rate. (I think I miscounted before).

Certainly possible thst someone spoke to Crawford and was told 14 playtests and I missed it: what they put on the slide for the GenCon PowerPoint was "11+" which doesn't promise much.

 

[Parmandur]

IIRC NEXT was a significantly longer playtest.

Nope: 2 years from announcement to final publication in both cases, but this go around they had a solid and firm base to start from.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

Nope: 2 years from announcement to final publication in both cases, but this go around they had a solid and firm base to start from.

Hmm. Felt longer last time. Maybe it was just more intense? Those packets were often bigger, or at least felt that way, as they were testing whole new systems.

 

[overgeeked]

I find it slightly amusing that we started this aside with you saying that I'd made a lot of assumptions (which you're right, I did!) and then you go on to make a lot of assumptions, some of which I can say with confidence are not quite correct.

Such as?

That's interesting, because I USED to think that things were quick, until actual experience taught me otherwise. Perhaps I've overextended in the other direction? Do you have experience in publishing?

Yes, I do. I've worked in layout & design.

This one I really DON'T think is an assumption at all. They absolutely WILL have completely new layout, design, and some new art. Sure, some art is going to be reused - they've be doing that for quite some time now, but there will be new art. There's no chance. None. That there won't be new covers.

I asked about the transition from 3E to 3.5 specifically because it's the closest 1-to-1 comparison we have. I pulled these from the DMGs of 3E and 3.5. The regular pages' trade dress is also identical. They likely kept the design the same specifically to reinforce the notion that it wasn't a new edition, rather an update. Exactly as they're saying here. Keeping the trade dress reinforces the idea that it's just an update or revision, not a new edition. From what we've seen the changes back then were more significant than they are now. What makes you think they'll redesign the interior now when they didn't back then? But yes, almost 100% guaranteed the covers will update like they did with 3E to 3.5.

Yeah, but there's backlogs - and they've talked about how they can't get their sizable print runs done at the same time. Meaning that they're going to tax the system with these books. Yes, it might be worse shipping from China, sure.

China's cheaper so more people print there so the backlog is worse there. Plus the literal slow boat from China delays things.

Here's hoping! (Keep in mind that the Playtests were originally supposed to be Monthly, but after missing nearly every original date, they pushed them back - and then still missed a date or two. Scheduling has already proven to vex them. Again - I don't deny - I hope they're on top of it. I think that they are. But my faith doesn't go very deep.

They were fine (I think) with the schedule up until the OGL fiasco. That put them behind because they went radio silent, stopped dropping packets, and didn't want spill over into the surveys.