D&D 5E Are D&D sales declining? Teos Abadia takes a look.

[Parmandur]

I think it primed things for BG3 too. At least anecdotally I know folks who saw the movie in one way or another and don’t play table top but are now invested. Strangely I’ve had BG3 players ask me about the movie so it might go the other way round too.

Working as designed, really: if they have a fairly regular schedule of releasing something of at least decent quality, that is what keeps the Brand with a capital B strong. Longterm, it might matter more that HAT is actually pretty good and something people will want to watch and Putnam hipster clickbaitnof "8 underrated fantasy movies (number 5 will shock you!)" than BO, if theybfollowmit up with more decent stuff (like the TV shownin the works).

 

[DragonBelow]

With a new edition around the corner this is hardly unexpected. Move along...

 

[FitzTheRuke]

To be clear, this isn't my assertion. It's what the data showed very clearly in the original video on the Roll for Combat show, disclosing the BookScan data. They looked at overall sales during the first months of 2023 and could see no drop at all from the OGL. Instead, two very clear spikes upward in sales around the time of the Super Bowl adds and the movie release.

Yeah, from my experience (30 year FLGS owner) the OGL made Pathfinder and other games sell better for a blip, but it didn't stop D&D by any measurable amount.

 

[darjr]

With a new edition around the corner this is hardly unexpected. Move along...

A decline in sales? Definitely.

But this soft of a landing? At least so far? I do think that’s news. At least in this industry.

 

[Oofta]

Nothing grows forever and eventually sales will at least plateau. However, the only people who have real data on sales are internal Hasbro employees.

If sales are falling it wouldn't be that surprising between fall from a COVID peak and just saturation. Digital sales may also have a decent sized impact especially for modules because typically only the DM purchases them anyway.

 

[Reynard]

Yeah, from my experience (30 year FLGS owner) the OGL made Pathfinder and other games sell better for a blip, but it didn't stop D&D by any measurable amount.

Out of curiosity, did any of the switchers -- such as to pathfinder -- stick?

 

[darjr]

Yeah, from my experience (30 year FLGS owner) the OGL made Pathfinder and other games sell better for a blip, but it didn't stop D&D by any measurable amount.

Boy would I love to get similar numbers for the rest of the hobby.

 

[mamba]

The rather tiny decline is for Bookscan only, right?

yes

So at the time when more people than ever are using digital tools there was nearly zero decline in physical books.

Not sure how you arrive at nearly zero decline. If you go by the first 8 week charts, the decline is around 50%, if you go by the total sales chart (52 weeks), it is around 40% across all products, with the only category with increasing sales being adventures.

Looking at the 2020 (peak) vs 2022 numbers

I would suggest that there hasn't been an actual decline at all.

hard to say since this is not a full picture

It's also possible that sales have slowed in anticipation of the 2024 edition. IIRC, there was a similar effect after the announcements of 4E and 5E.

not sure, the decline started after 2020, way ahead of the 2024 version looming on the horizon

 

[bedir than]

Strangely I’ve had BG3 players ask me about the movie so it might go the other way round too.

There was a spike in movie viewing in its 13th-15th week of streaming release, when BG3 came out. That's a movie already available for 100 days that got more popular.

It's no longer in the top 10 in the US though

 

[Zaukrie]

Have we seen anyone let go lately? If not, I'd guess DnD is on course.....