I do not think that Fighters beat out Bards, or many other spellcasters at Tier 2, or even earlier.
Fighters beat everyone at level 2-4 at skill checks. The key for the fighter is the Tactical Mind is only used after you fail the check and it only consumed if you make the check after failing it. Spells do not offer that sort of flexibility.
Comparing spells:
Enhance Ability is the only spell that offers the sort of flexibility tactical mind offers. It is generally a little less powerful on a single check most of the time (although that varies with DC). However you have to precast it. So you cast it and it is possible you would have passed all the checks anyway, or you still fail the checks, and the resource is used in either of those cases. As a full caster you can you get no uses at all at 2nd level, 2 uses a day at 3rd and 3 uses at 4th. Tactical Mind is more than that at 2nd level and equal with no short rests at 3rd and 4th.
Pass Without Trace this is mathematically much more powerful than tactical mind for stealth checks, but it is only a single skill it works on, and again you use the resource and it is consumed even if you would pass anyway. The resource is still used in the unlikely event you fail too.
Animal Friendship only works on beasts, is mathematically weaker generally and the resource needs to be used ahead of time.
Charm Person only works on beasts, is mathematically weaker generally and the resource needs to be used ahead of time.
Enlarge only works on strength checks, is mathematically weaker generally and the resource needs to be used ahead of time.
Friends is weaker, requires a precast and has a huge downside
Guidance is probably the closest thing to Tactical Mind at this level. However compared to tactical mind it is far weaker, needs to be precast and needs to be a specific ability. Like Expertise it is mathematically possible for guidance to be better than Tactical Mind with many checks. But that is highly situational; where you have a chance to precast it, know specifically which ability to call out and will be doing it over and over again. In combat Guidance also has an action and concentration cost where Tactical Mind does not. The changes to guidance that make it target a specific ability make it much weaker than 2014. Going into interogating a bad guy I can Guidance Insight or Intimidation but not both and I need to choose ahead of time. Sneaking into the bad guy lair i can Guidance Stealth or Perception but not both.
I think that is all the spells available to PCs from level 2-4 that effect skill checks.
Tier 2 has a lot more spells available, I don't think it is possible for a caster to be good in combat and keep up with a fighter when it comes to skill checks. With the wider selection of spells they can probably specifically tailor a PC to be competitive, but they will be VERY weak at combat if they do that.
Bear in mind that 2 short rests might be what the game was allegedly calibrated around, but it is relatively unusual for 2 short rests to be the norm for a game, with 1 being closer to the average in most it appears.
Even with no short rests they can use Tactical Mind 2 times at level 2-3 and 3 times at level 4, which is equal or more uses than a spell caster has for 2nd level spells.
The two factors you are not taking into into account I believe are:
1: Ability score distribution: Assuming that each character picks skills according to a reasonable understanding of their strengths, a Fighter will have Perception with a +0 ability bonus, Athletics with a +3 ability bonus, and two other skills with probably no, or a small bonus.
A spellcaster might have Perception at a +0 bonus, and three other skills at a +3 ability bonus.
I disagree with this. All classes either have the same point buy or the same chance of rolling for skills so if you are using those systems it is a wash. If you are using standard array though Fighters are better than most full casters
If you are using Standard Array:
Fighters have a +2 Strength, +2 Dex, -1 int, 0 Wis, +1 Charisma.
Wizards are -1 Strength, +1 Dex, +2 Int, +2 Wisdom, 0 Charisma
Clerics are +2 Strength, -1 Dex, 0 Int, +2 Wis, +1 Cha
Sorcerers are 0 Strength, +1 Dex, -1 Int, +1 Wisdom, +2 Charisma
Warlock are -1 Strength, +2 Dex, +1 Int, 0 Wis, +2 Charisma
Druids are -1 Strength, +1 Dex, +1 Int, +2 Wis, 0 Charisma
I think the fighter stacks up pretty darn well there having the maximum in Strength and Dexterity, a +1 in Charisma and their only negative is Intelligence which is among the least important in play. Warlock is probably better overall getting +2 in both Dex and Charisma, but the others are either equal or worse than fighter IMO.
You also mention Perception and that is the perfect example for how powerful mind is:
DM: you walk into a room there are some dusty rags on the floor, shadows from your torches dance around the corners of the room, everyone roll a perception check.
Fighter: I rolled a 15.
DM: Ok
Fighter: Did I pass because if I didn't pass the check I want to use Tactical Mind.
DM: Well you don't know if you passed or not.
Fighter: Well if I failed I want to use Tactical Mind
DM: Ok roll for Tactical Mind
Fighter: 9 so now it is a 24.
DM: Ok you sense that there are ......
There is no other ability I know of that would have worked here like this.
2: Spells. The bonus granted by Tactical mind is quite similar numerically to that granted by Advantage.
It depends on the DC. 5.5 is generally slightly better than advantage. However it is only used if it turns a failure into a success making the mean not a good measure of its mathematical power. Its actual median for the resource cost is actually higher than 5.5.
Even if the spellcaster does not have a spell that will resolve the situation without requiring ability checks, the Enhance Ability spell grants advantage to ability checks as a mere level 2 spell.
And you have to precast it, you need to choose an ability and at level 4 it only can be used 3 times a day and you can burn the resource and still fail. Tactical Mind will turn an ability check into a success 3 times a day minimum at 4th level and more if you get any short rests.
Sure the wizard or whatever is burning their combat resource for non-combat situations, but so is the Fighter if they are using Tactical Mind.
Ok to start with you only use the resource if you turn a failure into a success. This can't be understated. You can try Tactical Mind on every single failed check and never burn a use until you succeed because of it. This is extremely important in this discusssion, because attempting tactical mind does not use any combat resources. Only passing a check does.
That said in the 2024 rules using it, and turning a success into a failure, is no signficant loss in combat power for most players from level 2-4 because there is usually no reason to use Second Wind in combat from level 2-4. In the 2024 rules a potion of healing can be used as a bonus action, making 2nd Wind irrelevant (at that level).
In 2024 a level 2-4 fighter who uses 2nd Wind for anything other than an ability check is wasting resources unless for some reason you did not buy potions of healing.
As a result, I don't see second wind in combat at all between levels 2-4 any more. I do see it at level 5+, mostly for the movement boost, often with max hit points and only for the movement boost. I also see tactical mind in combat for skill checks (usually escaping a grapple or climbing).
(I'm not counting Guidance since we generally end up comparing fighter to wizard, but it is definitely a consideration if the spellcaster isn't a wizard.)
I included it above when I broke all the spells available at 4th level.
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