D&D and the rising pandemic

Hussar said:

Frankly, it's baffling to me. I honestly don't understand why we're not hip deep in sick people. Record (year on year record numbers for the past decade) numbers of Chinese tourists which weren't stopped until well after Wuhan was quarantined. People packed into public transpo in the cities on a daily basis. On and on. But, we're not only not seeing the numbers, but, it looks like we're seeing the beginings of the dawn as well. Cases have been slowing all over the country.

No massive testing (Japan is WAYYYY behind on testing), no lockdown, virtually no actions taken, other than some business closing and the schools closing. It's baffling.

To be fair, here in the schools, if you test positive for flu, you must stay home for two weeks. We've had classes closed because of flu numbers routinely. So, people are kinda sorta used to reacting to viral infections, but, this is just mind blowing. A bajillion Chinese tourists and nothing. Nobody gets that lucky.

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We discussed it on other forums and the key thing seemed to be transmission to the US via Europe.

It probably hit UK/Europe earlier then across the Atlantic to NYC.

Seattle/California a lot better off.

Same thing happened in Spanish flu some areas lucked out. China maybe contained it well except perhaps a few people who didn't go to Japan.

One would think if it was going to take off in Japan you would be seeing bodies by now regardless of how bad government action is.

Eastern Europe also seems lightly hit. Pacific area also lucked out even with tourism to the islands. Some had 0 Covid like Rarotonga.

Consider. NZ/Ireland.

Population 4.8/4.9 million

Cases 1470/19276
Deaths 18/1087

There's a discussion in Reddit r) NewZealand.

Dublin and Auckland are also similar sizes, population density is 3 times greater in Dublin though.

NZ numbers also look good vs smaller Scandinavian nation's.

We locked down early in numbers here but I think we just had less exposure.

By the time Europe locked down it was to late, they needed to lock down early February mid February at the latest.

Quality of healthcare doesn't seem to be making a massive difference.

It was mist likely spreading in January/February, western type nation's have a larger % of old people and more accurate data collection for deaths. Testing methods and reporting methods are all over the place. Our numbers included probables that later got turned into negatives.

Efficient public transportation is also a factor. It's crap in NZ and USA.

In the Black Plague Poland lucked out. It happens.

If you have another NZer within 30 metres they're to close.



Next door neighbor is English.




They kept it out if the old folks homes here, half our cases are one location no one died under the age of 62, most were 70+.

Transport hubs, tourist traps, efficient public transport, high population density and older population. Perfect storm.

Zardnaar said:

We discussed it on other forums and the key thing seemed to be transmission to the US via Europe.

It probably hit UK/Europe earlier then across the Atlantic to NYC.

Seattle/California a lot better off.

Same thing happened in Spanish flu some areas lucked out. China maybe contained it well except perhaps a few people who didn't go to Japan.

One would think if it was going to take off in Japan you would be seeing bodies by now regardless of how bad government action is.

Eastern Europe also seems lightly hit. Pacific area also lucked out even with tourism to the islands. Some had 0 Covid like Rarotonga.

Consider. NZ/Ireland.

Population 4.8/4.9 million

Cases 1470/19276
Deaths 18/1087

There's a discussion in Reddit r) NewZealand.

Dublin and Auckland are also similar sizes, population density is 3 times greater in Dublin though.

NZ numbers also look good vs smaller Scandinavian nation's.

We locked down early in numbers here but I think we just had less exposure.

By the time Europe locked down it was to late, they needed to lock down early February mid February at the latest.

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I don't think that would have been reasonable. At that time Germany had the most detected cases at 16. It's clear now that the virus had been circulating locally for a while before it was detected, but given the info available at that time lockdown was not a sensible option.

Hussar said:

Frankly, it's baffling to me. I honestly don't understand why we're not hip deep in sick people. Record (year on year record numbers for the past decade) numbers of Chinese tourists which weren't stopped until well after Wuhan was quarantined.
...
Nobody gets that lucky.

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One theory/model is that contagion for things like COVID19 is largely kickstarted by "superspreading events". That is, things like Biogen's mass infection play a larger role than a steady but smaller trickle of tourists.


If Japan was able to avoid events like this (whether by luck or just generally good, small scale preventative practices), it may have been enough.

There’s always going to be a random factor in this.

Viral load- the amount of virus you personally get exposed to- plays a role in if you get sick, and if you do, how sick you get. Someone getting a few hundred thousand Covid-19 viruses because someone coughed 11 feet from them will likely fare better than the same person walking unprotected into a closed room full of as-yet undiagnosed Covid-19 patients and inhaling billions with each breath.

Similarly, if Japan simply didn’t have many people entering the country from infected areas in the early stages, their efforts would have had better results than a similar country welcoming a big tour group fresh from Wuhan.

Aaaaand clotting:

Maybe the scariest potential complication from this whole mess.

But, as the article notes- and I’ve actually been wondering for about a week since this first popped up- this could be the underlying cause for a lot of the other problems, like organ failure or the loss of senses. It might even be the reason why patients on respirators aren’t doing well.

And if there’s one common cause, there might be one solution that wipes out or minimizes a bunch of symptoms.

Dannyalcatraz said:

But, as the article notes- and I’ve actually been wondering for about a week since this first popped up- this could be the underlying cause for a lot of the other problems, like organ failure or the loss of senses. It might even be the reason why patients on respirators aren’t doing well.

And if there’s one common cause, there might be one solution that wipes out or minimizes a bunch of symptoms.

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True I did understand that last bit, that if there is a common thread, that might be a linchpin to making this far less deadly, and also less damaging in general for more severe cases.

More the thought of getting something like this, and having to have a foot or some fingers removed. Not to mention death, but I mean... if I die I probably won't be as bothered by it as others still alive. Missing parts though, you would have to live with.

Gotcha!

Yeah, that wouldn’t be good at all...but better than the alternative, still.

Hussar said:

Frankly, it's baffling to me. I honestly don't understand why we're not hip deep in sick people.

- snip -

To be fair, here in the schools, if you test positive for flu, you must stay home for two weeks. We've had classes closed because of flu numbers routinely. So, people are kinda sorta used to reacting to viral infections, but, this is just mind blowing. A bajillion Chinese tourists and nothing. Nobody gets that lucky.

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I wonder if the key was in your last paragraph: child gets a flu, is sent home. That shuts off transmission to the other children. How many cold/flu cases this winter were really Corona? If sick adults at work also are sent home (or get a mask, stay by themselves, and such) then again the virus doesn't get a crack at other people. Or barely gets a fingertip-hold that the immune system can fight off.

As a first impression: you were quarantining the sick and the contagious carriers but did not know it. Be thankful !