Mallus said:
I think all we've seen so far is preliminary sales data, which is very good, and anecdotal evidence in the form of messageboard chatter, which is insignificant.
As for the Wii model, my anecdotal evidence tells me most Wii buyers stop using theirs after a few weeks, which, again, hasn't had much in the way of correlation with the Wii's success.
Anecdotal evidence, as we know, is just that...anecdotal. The Wii was supposed to be a fad and is constantly trumpeted as such by its opponents. We're nearly two years post-release and you still can't always walk into a store and buy one. The Wii's attachment rate (that is, the number that indicates how many games a console owner purchases after buying the console) has stayed slightly above the PS3 and below the 360...although these numbers increase and even out over time.
The Wii's overall attachment rate is roughly 5.6 games per unit, as opposed to the PS3's 5. The 360 is averaging roughly 8 (but with a year's head start, that's not as impressive as it sounds). Over the holidays, the Wii had a very strong season, with an 8.1 attachment rate at Gamestop. Over the year, however, they dropped significantly. All these numbers don't include the Wii Fit numbers, but do include SOME of the GTA numbers.
What this works out to is that SOME folks who bought the Wii tend to let is gather dust...while others keep playing it constantly. Stated another way: as 03/2008, the Wii had sold 148 million games (with 22 million sellers), the PS3 had sold 71 million games (with 7 million sellers) and the Xbox 360 had sold an unknown amount of games (with 28 million sellers). The numbers don't reflect the inclusion of Wii Fit, but do include GTA IV in the million-seller categories.
What this tells is that the PS3 is having a hard-go of it. It's got a low attachment rate AND low console sales compared to it's competitors. The Wii has a low attachment rate, but with the most consoles sold, that shows that some gamers buy lots of games for it and some buy very few. The 360 has the highest attach rate, showing it has a loyal fanbase...but only second place in overall sales.
So using the Wii as a model to compare 4e against is not a simple one-to-one comparison, as in many ways their situations are very, very different.