Mercurius
Legend
Well, remember the end of the prophecy. Dancey lays out three options. The first is catastrophic collapse. The second is massive downsizing to bring costs in line with revenue, perhaps licensing out the property--D&D shrinks to become just another fantasy RPG instead of the 800-pound gorilla. And the third is a traumatic rebirth a la 3E.
So, even if Dancey is correct, it doesn't mean D&D is doomed.
Yes, true. Here is are the relevant stanzas of the Dancey Death Spiral Prophecy:
Ryan Dancey spaketh said:Wizards is about to be forced into the D&D end-game which is something that many publishers have gone through but none ever with a game the scale and impact of D&D (TSR walked right up to this cliff but WotC saved them from going over the edge). There are 3 outcomes:
1: A total collapse, and the game ceases meaningful publication and distribution at least for one gamer generation and maybe forever.
2: Downsizing until overhead matches income; could involve some kind of out-license or spin off of the business - think BattleTech in its current incarnation.
3: Traumatic rebirth, meaning that someone, somewhere finds some way to cut out the cancers that are eating the tabletop game and restarts the mass market business for D&D.
Note that 2 and 3 can be mileposts on the road to 1.
We can hope that 3 is happening, but it seems that elements of 2 are and have been happening (specifically, "downsizing until overhead matches income"). Now I have a hard time believing that 1 will happen in the foreseeable future, but it certainly could happen. The strange thing about Pathfinder's emergence is that it has both increased the chances that 1 will happen but also assured D&D's survival in some form or fashion, albeit in the guise of Pathfinder.
I'm curious as to how Dancey would describe these "cancers."