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Hjorimir said:
What is your DMs opinion of a Listen check DC at a range of roughly 150 feet?
Ok i will answer this but before i do, understand this is IMO way past the point of concern. The point of concern isn't "at 150'" which is the "what the gm decided" stage, but how close should they have gotten before.
At 150' the sentry had a listen check of -15.
The ogres had base checks of -8. Thats for one ogre. assuming seven ogres, i would asses at least another -4 (one ufc for the first doubling from 1-2, another for the 2-4, and since they did not quite make another doubling and 8 ogres, no penalty.) thats got them to -12. (Note that instead i could roll for every ogre individually, but thats practically guaranteeing a failure.)
Now, this produces two opposed rolls... the pc at d20-15 plus his listen skill vs the ogres at d20-12.
Who is on watch? one guy out of seven, three watches a night, that means its likely the guy on watch is not their least observant. with 5th level characters, thats gviving us a range of +0 to conservatively +10 on spoit checks (limiting to only +2 for wisdom max and no feats involved.)
if i split the difference and go with +5 for the guys listen, we get to d20-10 vs d20-12.
Thats a die roll that favors the party. its maybe 60-40 in their favor but it favors them. Was this rolled? I got no clue. The sense i got was no, it wasn't, but thats primarily to the entire "can the ogres pull off this ambush" being treated as not hardly important, not in question.
But, to me the question of "what happened at 150;" is off base. In a forest medium, the rolls for spot are limited to 2d8x10'. So, unless the ogres got really lucky, 150' isn't the closest approach. In dennse woods, its down to 2d6x10'.
Is it possible for the ogres to make every roll (or the gm to just decide they did or not even ever stop and ask the question?) sure it is. it just did not have to be nor was it likely to be.
That "wild luck" or "flawless by fiuat" moves it well outside the range of "the logical outcome of their actions" and into "well if things go tragically bad for us".
Hjorimir said:
But just because they sometimes make mistakes, there isn’t any real reason why they needed to in this particular situation.
There is MORE reason to assume int 6 stealth-8 ogres make mistakes when executing a plan that relies on surprise than their is to assume it works flawlessly the other way.
Why? because those are the traits they are bad at.
the presumption is you are going to make more mistakes at the stuff you are bad at and fewer in the stuff you are good at.
this Gm seems to have reached the conclusion, perhaps by fiat, that these ogres were flawless in the execution (Note that i consider the flawless right up to the actual fight itself. once he actually put figures on map so the players to see, its likely the flawless ogre bits dropped in the face of "the
players actually see whats going on now" and dice)