The 4e change to essentials didn't save them from having 4e sink. Someone upthread tried to compare the change to 3.5 as the same as the change to essentials, but that was a False Equivalence. The change to 3.5 was due to how much errata had come out and it was just better to reprint the core books with the errata inside and call it 3.5.
While I agree it's a false equivalence, I don't agree with your characterization of the 3e -> 3.5e move. The thing is, that move had
always been in the plan, but had been intended to occur 2 years later than it actually did.
But there's a lot in 3.5e that hadn't been published in errata - to the extent that I'd characterize it as closer to being the pet house rules of one of the then-designers, rather than any accumulation of errata. (And, in fact, it was 4e where the errata
really got out of hand.)
3e was not failing at the time of the change.
No, but I think the problem was the same as sank 3.5e, 4e and Essentials - it was saddled with unrealistic expectations. Frankly, we're lucky we got any of those editions at all - we could very easily have seen the line cancelled instead.
I think there are a whole lot of us that have that preference and we're being ignored due to the early success. I also think that it will come back to bite WotC in the rear later.
Maybe. As I've noted in other threads, a rough estimate suggests that only 10% of players buy the PHB and only 10% of
those go on to buy anything else. So you're talking about, at best, a fraction of a fraction of a fraction. That may amount to thousands of us, but if WotC want every book to shift 100k units, thousands probably isn't going to cut it.
As for it biting them on the rear... it may, but again I doubt it. Right now, my bet is on seeing 6e in 2024, but
only because that's the 50th anniversary and they'll probably want to celebrate that big-time. If it wasn't for that, my guess would be a good bit further away than that.
(Though I do have to apply the same caveat I used earlier in the thread: at some point, D&D's current surge will inevitably end, and there's no way to know when that will be. So it is, of course, dangerous to assume things will stay the same for any length of time. But even in that scenario I'm not sure I'd predict an early new edition... or indeed a new edition, ever.)