D&D 5E Are we at, or close, to peak D&D? Again?


Nothing grows forever, but I suspect it will plateau and drop off slowly. One of the reasons D&D is booming is because people have a deep-seated desire for personal interaction. We're too disconnected, the hobby brings people together. Throw in the ease with which we can connect to people across the country.

There are certain risks of course. WOTC could flood the market again, causing confusion. There could be a new version of Satanic Panic. But my bet would be that we don't have a "crash" like we've had in the past. Whether or not the movies/games/TV series are successful is almost secondary.

Of course, as long as I can find 4 other people willing to put up with me as a DM I'm not sure I care. :)

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Kinder reader Inflection wanted
I think we are likely to get a 5.5 edition or a 6 that is basically a 5.5 because there are a number for things that even the people writing the don't know how to answer specific answers or change answers every time they are asked. I say this because I think its holding D&D access ability back. I think "Option B" is trying to happen but has not made any ground yet since none of the projects everyone is waiting for has released yet and could still be canceled. I expect a 5.5 clarification, fix, and consolidation of errata into an even more access able product will cause popularity to hit levels beyond what we considered the highest peak and with the hopeful actual release of tangent products such as movies, tv shows, and books that will be accepted by main stream ... this will setup the surge for "Option B".


I crit!
Somebody is going to come up with a game-changing VTT. The market's there for something that looks much better than Roll20 with a much less steep learning curve.
That and there are a TON of them. So many iterations on the idea that someone is going to find that recipe. And by a ton I mean many more than the big ones, useful good ones with a following. And new ones seemingly popping up.


I crit!
I think there will be an After COVID boom. People are sick of being at home and on their computers. I think the first non-virtual safe conventions will boom and people looking to game without staring at ANOTHER screen will help the game reach higher.

If the hobby does not fade out soon (within 5 years) I will be very surprised. Already, a few other RPGs were rising in popularity before the pandemic and are now played through Discord or "zoom?". Warhammer comes to mind. Never saw but a few chaps talking about that game and all of a sudden, our store owner get asked to order some of these books... It was the same pattern that I have seen a wee bit before the satanic panic.

I sure hope to be wrong, but we will see.


I crit!
The whole question of "peaking" misses one of the major factors in Magic: the Gathering's and Pokemon's continued relevance, which as of 5E seems to apply to D&D as well: people turn 8 every day.
As far as I know this was a warhammer mantra and they still had some mighty troubles. Still the truth of it may have helped them recover.

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