D&D 5E Are we at, or close, to peak D&D? Again?
Snarf Zagyg
Notorious Liquefactionist
Maybe!
I don't mean to be dismissive, but the idea that Hasbro has "crunched the numbers" on this is ... well, probably not correct.
People generally mistake the aggregate for the individual. Which is to say-
All companies are trying to make money.
Not all companies make money.
That's because the heuristics we use (companies "crunch the numbers" or "have good information" or "make rational decisions") works great in the aggregate and explains, for the most part, successful companies, but doesn't work so well for all companies, or all markets, at all times.
It is generally more accurate to say that most companies are risk averse. And most companies prefer good PR. Because bad publicity, or alienating customers, tends to be bad for business. Unless your brand is controversy. shrug
Mind of tempest
(he/him)advocate for 5e psionics
we can only know this after we drop again.
Ruin Explorer
Legend
The next two-three years will determine if it's B or C, frankly.
The quality of various D&D-based multimedia products - games, TV, movies - will have a huge impact. And Wizards needs to be ready to leverage their brand, not just D&D, if they want staying power. I suspect their bizarre logo change is part of this. They're going hard with the AAA games studios and hook-ups with various studios and so on to push into that digital space. The first in-house effort is looking increasingly "hmmm", unfortunately - Baldur's Gate: Dark Alliance. I think that's going to be, at best, a forgettable 6/10 AA game instead of the memorable 8/10+ AAA game it absolutely needed to be.
Based on D&D's history I tend to suspect the other multimedia stuff will also not do great. I hope it does awesome - best chance is with the TV show I suspect.
So C seems more likely.
However, regardless, as others have pointed out, the sheer number of people who will have played D&D will have an impact, and will probably boost the entire RPG industry for at least a decade, and people's kids are playing it, too, and you can pretty much bet that in 20+ years from now that will lead to another revival of some form. Be interesting to see if Wizards still exists and has the licence then of course. I suspect that they will not on either count, because some new management wave will have come in at Hasbro during the era when sales are declining, and broken them up/sold them off.
EDIT - The only way we haven't reached peak D&D is if Wizards releases a significantly-better-than-DNDBeyond digital space replete with a VTT so good it can barely be called a VTT, and has a very favourable pricing model, and does so in the next few years.
The quality of various D&D-based multimedia products - games, TV, movies - will have a huge impact. And Wizards needs to be ready to leverage their brand, not just D&D, if they want staying power. I suspect their bizarre logo change is part of this. They're going hard with the AAA games studios and hook-ups with various studios and so on to push into that digital space. The first in-house effort is looking increasingly "hmmm", unfortunately - Baldur's Gate: Dark Alliance. I think that's going to be, at best, a forgettable 6/10 AA game instead of the memorable 8/10+ AAA game it absolutely needed to be.
Based on D&D's history I tend to suspect the other multimedia stuff will also not do great. I hope it does awesome - best chance is with the TV show I suspect.
So C seems more likely.
However, regardless, as others have pointed out, the sheer number of people who will have played D&D will have an impact, and will probably boost the entire RPG industry for at least a decade, and people's kids are playing it, too, and you can pretty much bet that in 20+ years from now that will lead to another revival of some form. Be interesting to see if Wizards still exists and has the licence then of course. I suspect that they will not on either count, because some new management wave will have come in at Hasbro during the era when sales are declining, and broken them up/sold them off.
EDIT - The only way we haven't reached peak D&D is if Wizards releases a significantly-better-than-DNDBeyond digital space replete with a VTT so good it can barely be called a VTT, and has a very favourable pricing model, and does so in the next few years.
I think 5e already achieved that on launch - felt inclusive, & attracted players who might have been deterred by eg 4e dwarf boobplate. Although far more I think were deterred by 4e's heavy crunch feel. I haven't seen any sign of anyone coming in due to Tasha's; a supplement hardly ever has that kind of power.
Somebody is going to come up with a game-changing VTT. The market's there for something that looks much better than Roll20 with a much less steep learning curve.
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