Careful Attack/Sure Strike: A mathematical analysis

[Branduil]

Twin Strike is not really too good. It's certainly one of the best powers but it does a reasonable amount of damage for a striker.

 

[Ulorian - Agent of Chaos]

The point of careful attack and sure strike is to increase the chance to hit. Sometimes you really need to hit the target, even if it means potentially less damage.

Not really. Since Sure Strike does damage with no secondary effect, you're almost always better off going for the attack with the higher expected damage or useful secondary effect. One exception is an opponent on its last few hit points that you absolutely need to take out on your turn (why? who knows...). This is so fringe as to not be worth considering though. Can you give a realistic scenario where a higher chance to hit is worth giving up higher expected damage?

One example that I can think of where Sure Strike is worth considering is a Fighter with the Heavy Blade Opportunity feat (use an at-will power when making opportunity attacks) in combination with the Fighter's Combat Superiority class feature (your opportunity attacks halt an enemy's movement). An increased to hit probability means an increased chance to halt an enemy's movement. Although, you can make arguments for the other Fighter at-wills being just as good in combination with Heavy Blade Opportunity.

I can't think of any situation where Careful Attack is an optimal choice.

 

[Saeviomagy]

I'm with zurai. Making ss/ca basic attacks gives them purpose. For fighters it makes it a good attack to use if you really want to lock down movement via AoOs. For a ranger it could be a good alternative if you get granted a basic attack and have those nifty bracers.

 

[Nifft]

I think Twin Strike is the real culprit here. I think it is just too good to be an at-will.

We can test this hypothesis by examining a class that has a power identical to Careful Attack but lacks Twin Strike. For example, the Fighter. They should be all over their analogue, right? (Since they don't have a broken power like Twin Strike to distract them.)

It turns out: not so much. Fighters don't want Sure Strike, and Rangers don't want Careful Attack, in equal numbers: roughly 110% of sample group (with a 10% margin of error).

Nerfing Twin Strike won't do anything but nerf the Ranger.

Cheers, -- N

 

[IceFractal]

Two ideas to differentiate Careful Attack:
1) Wisdom is a secondary stat for Rangers, right? So make it involve Wisdom in some way - Wisdom to hit, Wisdom to damage, whichever. Balanced so that high-Wisdom Rangers pick Careful Attack, and others pick Twin Strike.

2) Because of careful aiming, you get the accuracy bonus on your next shot at that target as well. This would encourage alternating between it and another at-will, which seems like a good thing, actually.


For Sure Strike I'd go with option #2, but mix it up a bit: A significant bonus to hit that target, but only until the start of your next turn. So ideally you'd hit someone with it, Mark them, and then if they try to attack someone else you get a AoO that's almost sure to hit (and can be Power Attacked).

 

[Stalker0]

Two ideas to differentiate Careful Attack:
1) Wisdom is a secondary stat for Rangers, right? So make it involve Wisdom in some way - Wisdom to hit, Wisdom to damage, whichever. Balanced so that high-Wisdom Rangers pick Careful Attack, and others pick Twin Strike.
QUOTE]

I think trying to have careful attack compare with twin strike is just asking for trouble. Twin Strike has high damage coupled with high accuracy. Giving CA more of the same is just forcing two powers to fight for the same niche.

Instead I would focus on giving CA some side benefit that is completely different from Twin Strike. That way its unique.

 

[eamon]

Twin strike is fine as-is. Careful Attack should definitely not do more damage - that entirely defeats the purpose of the power (a ranger already has a bunch of high-damage abilities). The attack bonus should simply be increased, say to +4, or, if you're very conservative, to +3. A human melee ranger is liable to take it anyhow, so there is an argument to be made that you don't want it to be too powerful. Still, I doubt +4 is particularly overpowering, so that's my vote.

Sure strike, the fighter equivalent, is weak as is, but playable, because of class differences - it doesn't have a twin strike competitor for minion slaying goodness, and a fighter is less single-foe centric role-wise, and it meshes well with heavy blade opportunity and heavy blade opportunity (which is a common build). I'd be happy with a change to +3, but +4 would be to high IMHO.

My preferred errata: Sure strike raised to +3, and careful attack to +4. If you're looking for a different style improvement, have careful attack instead grant a +1 power bonus to AC/reflex. Neither power should deal more damage than now; as is, the damage penalty isn't particularly high anyhow, and by improving the damage, it simply becomes a better basic attack which is boring.

 

[Ulorian - Agent of Chaos]

Two ideas to differentiate Careful Attack:
1) Wisdom is a secondary stat for Rangers, right? So make it involve Wisdom in some way - Wisdom to hit, Wisdom to damage, whichever. Balanced so that high-Wisdom Rangers pick Careful Attack, and others pick Twin Strike.

I think trying to have careful attack compare with twin strike is just asking for trouble. Twin Strike has high damage coupled with high accuracy. Giving CA more of the same is just forcing two powers to fight for the same niche.

Instead I would focus on giving CA some side benefit that is completely different from Twin Strike. That way its unique.

Yes.

The best course of action might be to simply wipe Careful Attack from the collective consciousness and wait patiently for the Martial handbook's new Ranger at-wills.

 

[Ulorian - Agent of Chaos]

eamon: Upping the to hit chance does nothing to improve the situation: probability to hit and damage done are inextricably linked via expected damage (see the first post in this thread). What this means is that Careful Attack and Twin Strike are competing in the same space since they both do damage only (currently Careful Attack is a distant, distant second in this race). Careful Attack needs to differentiate itself by having a secondary effect.

The only situation in which Sure Strike is worth considering is when taking Heavy Blade Opportunity, so at least this power has a (very limited) redeeming feature.

 

[Ulorian - Agent of Chaos]

If you're looking for a different style improvement, have careful attack instead grant a +1 power bonus to AC/reflex.

You might be on to something here.