mamba
Hero
I have not seen anything to support this, but hard numbers appear to be impossible to find. At a minimum the short life cycle suggests otherwise
D&D 5E Could D&D Die Again?
- Thread starter Zardnaar
- Start date
Vaalingrade
Legend
I think it's about time we just realize that revisionist history has won.
4e made zero money, not a single person purchased, played or enjoyed it, and we have always been at war with Oceana.
Zardnaar
Legend
No one's claiming that.
. The other metric though is online players. Few years back OSR had double the numbers of 4E and 3.X was a lot bigger than OSR.
This was around 5E landing iirc.
No idea what current numbers are.
We've also learnt 3.5 didn't do very good numbers either. But finding an online 3 5 or Pathfinder Game was easy. Then 5E crushed everything.
teitan
Legend
By the time 5e came out 4e was dead for two years while Pathfinder was still going strong and WOTC had published 3.5 core books, 1e corebooks, 2e corebooks and a 0e anniversary set. 4e was unsupported and lay fallow. 3.5 was a huge seller, compared to 2e which flatlined after a year and a half. So it wasn’t a poor seller and its success was why Hasbro thought it could do more with 4e and the plans they announced for it and the unlimited budget they threw at the developers. It failed within a time frame to meet the expectation and was slashed. It wasn’t even cancelled by Hasbro, it was iced. That’s why it was nostalgia products for 2 years. They had a miniscule budget. They had to farm new material out for others to work on. OSR isn’t a good comparison because you’re talking several games, of varying systems from White box styles to 1e and BX which are not all that related but share a common ancestry and the various sub games in the OSR with changes that create fiefdoms within the OSR like LOTFP.
LuisCarlos17f
Legend
My fear now is it could die, like in the same way Star Wars franchise.
The company should be ideologically neutral and they shouldn't get into troubles, not "enter into a chemise of 30 feet" ( a chemise is the wall betwen two towers and in a casle siege they are too hard to atack there).
The company should be ideologically neutral and they shouldn't get into troubles, not "enter into a chemise of 30 feet" ( a chemise is the wall betwen two towers and in a casle siege they are too hard to atack there).
Zardnaar
Legend
It's numbers were similar to AD&D which had been out of print 14-24 years at that point. That suggests a very very rapid collapse of the playerbase.
3.5 (a poor performer D&D wise) was still more popular and was putting up better numbers than AD&D while Pathfinder was a thing.
Bill Zebub
“It’s probably Matt Mercer’s fault.”
I thought it was lingerie for a fire giant.
LuisCarlos17f
Legend
Really the original expression in Spanish languange is "meterse en camisa de once varas".
CommodoreKong
Explorer
It seems like Wizards is spending Anton of money on One DND, especially with the VTT. I wonder what their measure of success will be. I could see a scenario where One DND does better than any other version but is still considered a disappointment due to how much was spent on the VTT.
LuisCarlos17f
Legend
One D&D- VTT shouldn't be only fantasy, but they should open space for other genres, for example sci-fi.
CommodoreKong
Explorer
I believe Wizards said in the creators summit that the VTT is in pre Alpha, I would guess it's years off from supporting any other games if that's something Wizards decides to do.
LuisCarlos17f
Legend
If you know Hasbro you should know this loves making money with the licences. If they could, they would publish a Star Wars d20, Star Trek d20...
GreyLord
Legend
I feel they are putting a LOT of bets on how successful they can be online. May all their bets be won.
If it flops, it really could KILL D&D (I think...the amount spent overall is becoming astronomical. I don't think D&D has ever had this much spent on it combined over it's existence with how much I think they are going to invest in the virtual online presence). (By spent, I'm not talking just on the game, but the investment in the virtual and online presence and other aspects "BEYOND" what the game normally has been in the past).
They have multiple individuals with computer backgrounds and internet involvement in their resume's in the Leadership positions right now to guide this ship. Hopefully their experience pays off.
Zardnaar
Legend
Something like 300 million movie+vtt? And software is notirious at blowing out budgets.
VTT crashing and burning could maybe do it.
CleverNickName
Limit Break Dancing
Well, there's the "D&D is dead" perspective, and there's the "D&D is dead to me!" perspective.
For the first perspective, I don't think D&D will ever die, truly. There will always be someone, somewhere, playing at least one edition of D&D in some format or another. There will always be a demand for RPGs--they are a unique pastime, a creative outlet that can't be found in any other format--and D&D will always be considered The One That Did It First. So no, I don't think it will ever "die."
But I can imagine a timeline where the developers have made so many changes I didn't want, and pushed it so far into a direction that doesn't appeal to me, that I no longer desire to play it. Other people will no doubt love the changes and new direction, and the game will thrive for years and years without me, though. This hypothetical situation would be my loss, not theirs.
For the first perspective, I don't think D&D will ever die, truly. There will always be someone, somewhere, playing at least one edition of D&D in some format or another. There will always be a demand for RPGs--they are a unique pastime, a creative outlet that can't be found in any other format--and D&D will always be considered The One That Did It First. So no, I don't think it will ever "die."
But I can imagine a timeline where the developers have made so many changes I didn't want, and pushed it so far into a direction that doesn't appeal to me, that I no longer desire to play it. Other people will no doubt love the changes and new direction, and the game will thrive for years and years without me, though. This hypothetical situation would be my loss, not theirs.
CommodoreKong
Explorer
I do get a feeling Hasbro is expecting the VTT to start bringing in reoccurring revenue from most players similar to (but probably not as much as) MtG. And I just don't know if many players will be willing to put up with the amount of micro transactions I have a feeling the VTT team will push to hit those revenue goals.
If WotC pushes too hard I could see more players branch out to other TTRPGs.
Whizbang Dustyboots
Gnometown Hero
I am appalled to discover that, nine pages in, no one has posted this meme.
The point of the OGL (and now I guess the creative commons thing) is that D&D can't die. It literally can't. If WotC and Hasbro evaporated overnight and all their intellectual property rights became an unresolvable mess, such that no edition of D&D was ever printed again, it doesn't matter because we have a million pseudo-clones that include everything but the name itself and seven proprietary monsters.
Zardnaar
Legend
D&D is still dead in that scenario you would have D&D like games.
My OP wasn't about D&D going extinct just getting themselves into a lot of trouble requiring a bailout or sale.
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