D&D and the rising pandemic

I would put business types in "the rich" category. Company pays the bill and it's tax deductible.

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Zardnaar

Legend
Ummm... I travel all the time for work and I am by no means "the rich".

Yes right now that's because air travel is cheap. If it goes back to 1960's or 70s style it won't be as cheap.
In real terms I think it's something like half the price iirc.

That's what I mean. It's not going to be completely unaffordable but you'll think twice about that holiday. Assuming you have a job.

They might be able to hold prices down via government bailouts.

Cost of oil will be cheap but the price of turning it into gas or jet fuel means the price won't be dirt cheap.

My brothers a pilot on the 4 engines. His jobs gone and he's not really expecting it back in the next year or two.

There was a pilot shortage shirt term that's been solved.
 


Yes right now that's because air travel is cheap. If it goes back to 1960's or 70s style it won't be as cheap.
In real terms I think it's something like half the price iirc.

That's what I mean. It's not going to be completely unaffordable but you'll think twice about that holiday. Assuming you have a job.

They might be able to hold prices down via government bailouts.

Cost of oil will be cheap but the price of turning it into gas or jet fuel means the price won't be dirt cheap.

My brothers a pilot on the 4 engines. His jobs gone and he's not really expecting it back in the next year or two.

There was a pilot shortage shirt term that's been solved.

Honestly, none of this makes any sense to me.

The pricing of airfare before the 1970s in the US was completely different because pricing was strictly regulated by the government. It was a pricing scheme that was designed (and actually worked) to keep pricing down when air travel was new, but basically failed as the industry matured. No one, not even those discussing a bailout, is talking about a return to the old pricing regulations.

I already think twice about all holidays. Deciding whether I fly or drive somewhere is based on looking at airfare, and determining if it's worth it vs. driving (or not going at all).

Government bailouts don't hold prices down, they keep companies afloat in times of extreme debt/duress. If there's no bailout they won't necesarily increase prices, they'll figure out a way to become financially stable or fold (or partially fold, or merge, etc). Blindly increasing prices in no way guarantees financial stability.

Cost of oil is not what we're discussing at all.

The pilot shortage (in the US at least) has not been short term problem. It's also not really a shortage so much as it is a combination of training and union issues. It's also a non-sequitor. Pilots being out of work now could even make airfare cheaper in the future, as more pilots are available and can't demand higher wages due to a surplus of available workers.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Honestly, none of this makes any sense to me.

The pricing of airfare before the 1970s in the US was completely different because pricing was strictly regulated by the government. It was a pricing scheme that was designed (and actually worked) to keep pricing down when air travel was new, but basically failed as the industry matured. No one, not even those discussing a bailout, is talking about a return to the old pricing regulations.

I already think twice about all holidays. Deciding whether I fly or drive somewhere is based on looking at airfare, and determining if it's worth it vs. driving (or not going at all).

Government bailouts don't hold prices down, they keep companies afloat in times of extreme debt/duress. If there's no bailout they won't necesarily increase prices, they'll figure out a way to become financially stable or fold (or partially fold, or merge, etc). Blindly increasing prices in no way guarantees financial stability.

Cost of oil is not what we're discussing at all.

The pilot shortage (in the US at least) has not been short term problem. It's also not really a shortage so much as it is a combination of training and union issues. It's also a non-sequitor. If anything, pilots being out of work now will make airfare cheaper in the future, as more pilots are available and can't demand higher wages due to a surplus of available workers.

The demands not going to be there. Prices will have to go up espicially if they have to carry less people.

If they don't have to run at a profit and the can run at a loss and burn government money prices might stay the same.

Generally inflation should be low along with interest rates. (1929).

If the governments let money printer go brrrr to much though you'll have inflation like 1919/20.

I don't think we're gonna have the great depression 2.0 but we're mostly like to have a depression. Hell it's already started.

Hasn't really started for most people and a few are blindly optimistic.

Our expectations are 3 waves of job losses (wave 1 now), with double digit unemployment. Recovery seating 2021/22.

Borders are closed for the forseeable future. We won't be the only ones.
 


Zardnaar

Legend
Lol what are you today, the doom and gloom patrol?
First we have a more dangerous strain that may have been discovered, and a racist potato.

Realistic.

I got called doom and gloom when I predicted 9/11 casualties every 1-3 days for a month or two. And yet here we are.

I can give you some doom and gloom possibilities if you want.
 

The demands not going to be there. Prices will have to go up espicially if they have to carry less people.

This is generally correct. However, what I originally started by pointing out, is that most of that demand is business travel. You seem to have it in your head that most air travel is for vacations, or by rich people. It isn't. If you want to understand what demand there will be for airfare in the future, you need to look at the business needs for it, and what businesses are willing to pay. Furthermore, businesses are not rich, and travel costs are not a tax deduction.

Generally inflation should be low along with interest rates. (1929).

If the governments let money printer go brrrr to much though you'll have inflation like 1919/20.

While I don't necessarily disagree with these statements per se, they have as much context to me as your infatuation with 1970s prices, the cost of fuel, and how many engines are on your brother's plane.
 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
Supporter
Lol what are you today, the doom and gloom patrol?
First we have a more dangerous strain that may have been discovered, and a racist potato.
What I am is a doctor’s son living in a state opening itself up at a pace faster than the federal guidelines suggest. So I’m closely monitoring what’s going on here and in similar regions to figure out whet it will be safer to normalize activities.

Right now, I look around, and I can’t help but think of this:
 

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