D&D and the rising pandemic

[Zardnaar]

Better to bury the truth and capitulate to the racists, than to seek the truth and fight the racism I suppose. For some I suppose it's all about blame. For others it's about seeking the truth. Hell, if I wanted to find ways to blame China, there's a lot going on worth blame. Rights violations, concentration camps, genocide... I don't need a virus to lay blame on China if that's what I want to do.

Uness they deliberately released a bioweapon (which I very highly doubt) I don't care to much on Covids origins atm.

And if you really have a beef with China (more specifically the CCP) there's plenty of ammo. That's beyond the scope of these forums though.

Social medias not really the place to have that conversation though.

 

[AnotherGuy]

So, let us look at this, with critical thinking engaged:

"Nikolai Petrovsky, the lead researcher, said his team suspects human manipulation in Wuhan because of the unmatched ability of the virus’ protruding spike to infect human cells."

So, by description the study says, "this virus is too good at infecting humans to be natural." I've perused the preprint on arXiv, and that's about the depth of the argument. The abstract of the paper, in which you are supposed to give the basic conclusions, doesn't say, "so this is probably manmade". It says, in effect, "this virus is surprisingly well-adapted to humans." No statement of artificial origin even appears in the abstract!

The conclusion of the paper is basically, "We don't know how this happened" and so they posit that it may have been done in the laboratory. The paper does not actually present any specific evidence that it was made in a lab - they merely speculate that it is a possibility that should be looked into.

So, I'm sorry, but for purposes of this discussion, the paper is merely an opinion.

I think this is very much a simplistic view of the study given all the trouble they went to by using a high-performance computer aimed to help identify any intermediate animal vector that may have played a role in transmitting a bat virus to humans with the results showing that SARS-CoV-2 bound to ACE2 on human cells more tightly than any of the 12 tested animal species, including bats and pangolins and that if one of the animal species tested was the origin, it would normally be expected to show the highest binding to the virus.

It is also peculiar that it took so long to have such a harmless study published for peer-review. Only recently when you had the flip flopping of key characters and organisations were studies like this seeing the light.

Then you have Dr Ashley informing congressman Jim Jordon that the Chinese had quite publicly said in their 2011 declaration of biological weapons that they were working on synthetic biology and gain of function using the serial passage of evolutionary or convolutional technology approaches.

For some this and the other circumstantial evidence, financial interests of various parties, along with the behaviour of the media, makes the lab-leak a much stronger hypothesis than the zoonosis. I guess for Jon Stewart too.

 

[Eltab]

When eyewitnesses turn up dead of not-natural causes;
When documents are destroyed, or are not found in their assigned depository, or access to the depository is denied;
That too is circumstantial evidence.

This happens with Mafia cases and gang cases. It can also happen with official-sponsored cover ups.

 

[Umbran]

I think this is very much a simplistic view of the study given all the trouble they went to

So, the trouble they went through is fine science. But, I'm sorry, it ISN'T ABOUT the lab-origin hypothesis.

I will repeat - there is NO DATA in there that directly speaks to lab origin. At all. Anyone who told you it was misrepresented the work.

It is also peculiar that it took so long to have such a harmless study published for peer-review. Only recently when you had the flip flopping of key characters and organisations were studies like this seeing the light.

Oh, for cryin' out loud. Your evidence is... it took a long time? Really? As if you know how long a study of this should take to come to fruition, when the work is being done in the middle of a pandemic? The virology people have been kinda busy, you know.

When you start getting into characterizing it as "harmless" - so, let me guess... "THEY didn't want you to see this study at all!" Did I get that right? With all-caps on THEY?

You can keep your conspiracy theories. Thoroughly unconvincing. Come back with actual science, or some real evidence, not a bunch of things you can put on a corkboard and run yarn between to make it look like it hangs together.

 

[Umbran]

This happens with Mafia cases and gang cases. It can also happen with official-sponsored cover ups.

Mod Note:
Okay - this "official-sponsored coverup" conspiracy theorizing is over the line.

This thread has been founded on getting actual information to people. This is not actual information. This is fearmongering. We won't have this any more than we will have anti-vax crud.

Next person who brings conspiracy theory nonsense in here will be banned from the thread.

 

[Zardnaar]

Hmmn.

Stuff

i.stuff.co.nz

 

[GreyLord]

Back to RPGs....

Well, we got together for the 4th this weekend and created characters and started an adventure for the first time in a long time this weekend. Will travel and meet up at my place this following week to continue our marathon of playing as a group.

Hopefully we can get enough playtime together before the Delta variant takes a strong hold in the nation and forces a possibility of us all living our rpg lives online once more.

 

[Imaculata]

We're all waiting for our 2nd shot, and until we all have it, we play online via Roll20. But on the up side, I'll soon be playing in a full 5e campaign for the first time. Lets see what this 3.5 player has been missing out on.

 

[AnotherGuy]

@Umbran, as a person in the field of science, what are your thoughts on this 9 minute clip between the Weinsteins and Bill Maher, specifically on their understanding about the virus. I'm assuming that you are familiar with the Weinsteins.

 

[Umbran]

@Umbran, as a person in the field of science, what are your thoughts on this 9 minute clip between the Weinsteins and Bill Maher, specifically on their understanding about the virus. I'm assuming that you are familiar with the Weinsteins.

Bill Maher is not what I'd call a solid journalist - his lead in, "It'd almost be conspiracy thinking to say it didn't start in the lab," is playing right into cognitive biases.

I am familiar with the scientists. That they invoke "that's not how science works," given their stance on Ivermectin is laughable. Ivermectin is a drug used for killing parasites - commonly heartworms in dogs and intestinal worms in cattle. They were supporting use of Ivermectin against covid-19 based on no evidence. Over 16 studies have been done on Ivermectin's use on this disease, none of which show significant signs of better patient outcomes.

Oh, the "we might expect a lab virus to do things wild viruses might not do..." That is such bullpucky. Evolution is what it is, the origin of the beast doesn't matter once it is in the wild, the forces on it are the same at that point.

The process they are talking about with viruses becoming less potent over time is a real one, but only on evolutionary timescales, decades, centuries, and millennia, not over the course of a single year. Over the short term, you see a "drunkard's walk" through all sorts of possibilities, some of which may well be worse.

And, overall, we see no data presented. We have two people asserting things without support, which comes off as "appeal to authority" to me, but then they allow key points to be mis-represented in their presentation. I am not convinced.