Zardnaar
Legend
Lovely graph.
But the actual health care system capacity is closer to 0.1% of the population than 15%.
Because 5% of the people sick need 3 weeks of respirator care.
And the USA has 65000 of them. Imagine they (a) scrounge up 20k more, and (b) kick everyone on them off so they are all usable for Covid19.
85k/5% is 1.7 million people sick. But those 5% need 3 weeks of care, so the most you can handle per day is about 81,000.
81,000/300 million is, carry the two, well 0 within rounding error. And while that is a joke, it is also true: in order to flatten the curve to stay under healthcare capacity, we need the curve to stretch for a crazy number like 10 years.
To beat this, we need capacity (millions of respirators and technicians) or a vaccine, and we have to accept this isn't going to end soon.
In any case, Iran is about to show us what happens when you are hit by this epidemic and do nothing to stop it. 80*.05 is 16. I hope my math is wrong.
Iran has a young population.
It might also be an example of where everyone is in a few months. You can't sustain a lockdown for more than a few weeks, 2-3 months tops and I think that's optimistic.
The choices are bad, worse, awful, and aw crap.
Venezuela is also gonna be another case study.
There's no civil society as such in China and what exists has been corrupted by the CCP. They may have done the modern equivalent of bricking people up inside their houses.