D&D and the rising pandemic

[THEMNGMNT]

The thing is that it could be safe if no one from their church has traveled out of the area or had anyone come visit from out of the area for the past few weeks. But explaining the difference between "could be" and "is not" does not work so well with a lot of people.

I live in the US, in Virginia, and all the known cases are in parts of the state, or in bordering states, nowhere near me, so most stuff here is still "business as usual" for a lot of people. I work in food delivery, so I will be working til the state forces us to close, which seems unlikely right now, as it seems most states want takeout and delivery food to stay available, since this is a regular source of meals for so many people.

Unfortunately, this is not correct. I wish it were, but it's not. Because we in the United States do not have testing at scale, we simply don't know who has it, where they are, or how they got it. So the assumption that only people from outside the community have it is wishful thinking.

Scientists say for every case detected, 5 to 10 cases are undetected. They also say that the number of cases double every 2 to 3 days.

Virginia, at the time I type this, has 67 declared cases. But it likely has over 500 cases today, this very moment. And by next Monday it will have a few thousand cases, perhaps more, most of them undiagnosed.

For the record, I live in LA, and the county has 140 confirmed cases. Now do the above math and imagine how bad next week is going to look, and the week after that, and the week after that.

Events are moving fast. Much faster than most of us can comprehend. You should assume "business as usual" is over and and be prepared to shelter in place in a matter of days. You should also assume that your likelihood of coming into contact with someone who is infected is growing quickly. Take measures now to protect yourself, your loved ones, and your community. Each day we fail to act results in more infections...and more fatalities.

I know I sound like a crazy person. I'm not. The person you are today, I was a week ago. And in a week, you're going to be me.

 

[Zardnaar]

Meanwhile where I live.

Stuff

i.stuff.co.nz

Gamestore pulled the plug on all D&D groups. I had already cancelled along with half the other groups.

Partying like it's 1999 I mean March 8th

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Re: xenophobia

 

[ad_hoc]

Not sure if this has been posted.

It is an interactive graph showing the effectiveness of social distancing.

Particularly interesting to me is how impactful changes at the 10-30% range are (where 0% is no effort and 100% is total isolation).

The math behind flatten the curve

 

[robus]

Right, they totally deserve criticism for their handling of the virus. They did a bad job, and the misinformation they are putting out there right now is pretty bad and inflammatory, too.

But it’s not just that, there are common practices in China that exacerbate the risk and that should stop. Absolutely agree that our response was utterly inept, but even countries that weren’t asleep at the wheel have suffered badly.

Definitely policy changes to be made worldwide, but an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of quarantine.

 

[Coroc]

Not sure if this has been posted.

It is an interactive graph showing the effectiveness of social distancing.

Particularly interesting to me is how impactful changes at the 10-30% range are (where 0% is no effort and 100% is total isolation).

The math behind flatten the curve

Now that one is really interesting, hopefully the effects are like in this graph simulation then the world might have a chance. I fear a bit for the economical impact also.
I think time is a critical thing in all aspects here. If any kind of shutdown lasts to long people might get crazy.

 

[NotAYakk]

Not sure if this has been posted.

It is an interactive graph showing the effectiveness of social distancing.

Particularly interesting to me is how impactful changes at the 10-30% range are (where 0% is no effort and 100% is total isolation).

The math behind flatten the curve

Lovely graph.

But the actual health care system capacity is closer to 0.1% of the population than 15%.

Because 5% of the people sick need 3 weeks of respirator care.

And the USA has 65000 of them. Imagine they (a) scrounge up 20k more, and (b) kick everyone on them off so they are all usable for Covid19.

85k/5% is 1.7 million people sick. But those 5% need 3 weeks of care, so the most you can handle per day is about 81,000.

81,000/300 million is, carry the two, well 0 within rounding error. And while that is a joke, it is also true: in order to flatten the curve to stay under healthcare capacity, we need the curve to stretch for a crazy number like 10 years.

To beat this, we need capacity (millions of respirators and technicians) or a vaccine, and we have to accept this isn't going to end soon.

In any case, Iran is about to show us what happens when you are hit by this epidemic and do nothing to stop it. 80*.05 is 16. I hope my math is wrong.

 

[ad_hoc]

Lovely graph.

But the actual health care system capacity is closer to 0.1% of the population than 15%.

Because 5% of the people sick need 3 weeks of respirator care.

And the USA has 65000 of them. Imagine they (a) scrounge up 20k more, and (b) kick everyone on them off so they are all usable for Covid19.

85k/5% is 1.7 million people sick. But those 5% need 3 weeks of care, so the most you can handle per day is about 81,000.

81,000/300 million is, carry the two, well 0 within rounding error. And while that is a joke, it is also true: in order to flatten the curve to stay under healthcare capacity, we need the curve to stretch for a crazy number like 10 years.

To beat this, we need capacity (millions of respirators and technicians) or a vaccine, and we have to accept this isn't going to end soon.

In any case, Iran is about to show us what happens when you are hit by this epidemic and do nothing to stop it. 80*.05 is 16. I hope my math is wrong.

Well, to start, it's about Canada.

Not sure how prepared Canada is vs the US.

However, I doubt the mathematicians completely screwed up how much the health care system can handle by orders of magnitude.

It must mean something different than how you're reading it.

 

[Harzel]

Someone should tell them about South Korea, where a Church was an epicenter for the virus

Well, that was a foreign church attended by foreigners. And we all know foreigners are different and likely disease-ridden by nature. That can't happen here.

</sarcasm> (Just to be clear.)

 

[HarbingerX]

Well, to start, it's about Canada.

Not sure how prepared Canada is vs the US.

However, I doubt the mathematicians completely screwed up how much the health care system can handle by orders of magnitude.

It must mean something different than how you're reading it.

The Canadian government has been all over this right from the start. One province alone has done more testing that then entire US. So the reported Canadian numbers are probably more accurate, but the virus still got into community transmission. We had a lot of cases coming in from Iran (large expat community here) and the US. And the problem is that we share a massive border that we really can't afford to close with the USA, which is doing a pretty dire (see what I did there?) job of tracking.

Even with all that prep work, we're still getting 33% daily growth and will be just as overwhelmed in 3 weeks time if nothing changes. However, we're all pretty much self isolating starting end of last week across the country; so we'll know how bad we're going to have it in 2-3 weeks.

If Trump closes the border however, our economy will implode.