D&D and the rising pandemic
NZ is doing a good job of getting people vaccinated looks like. Already past 90% first dose (I assume of those eligible? Or adults?) in some areas.New framework. Red/orange/green rates tied to vaccine levels (double dosed).
Basically hit 90% vaccine rates no lockdowns.
Some sort of vaccine passport as well. No vaccine no service.
Govt reveals its Covid-19 Protection Framework
The government has announced details of its Covid-19 Protection Framework, involving the roll-out of a 'traffic-light' system once all DHBs hit 90 percent full vaccination rates.www.rnz.co.nz
See what happens though once Covid spreads more.
DHB= District Health Board.
Few places are hitting 90% for first dose.
Good on you.
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In Ontario, the vaccine passport is needed for non-essential indoor activities; bars, restaurants, gyms. It is your vaccine reciept, or a barcode that is a key into a central Database that gives the validator your name and I think DOB.
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My city finally hit 90% first dose like a week ago, and we had a huge head start on you folk.
Or second dose is closer to 90%, but your looks like it will catch up (due to the 4+ week delay).
Note that your relative rush with 2nd doses means that boosters are more likely to be useful; there is evidence that a delay between 1st and 2nd makes the 2nd more effective.
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At 90% one dose and like ~84% fully vaccinated (age 12+), vaccine passport for indoor use, schools open with modest masking (they eat indoors and take off their masks to do so, modest filtering of air), indoors requiring masks, indoor gathering capped at 10-50, and probably 5%-10% infected over pandemic, we are seeing a virus spread of under 1.0 (number of people newly sick per day is flat or down).
Kids appear to be spreading delta reasonably well despite their lower chance of symptoms. So getting age 5-11 vaccinated at 90%+ and a few more percentage points on the rest of the population (age 20-40 has a low vaccine rate still, and low compliance rate on social distancing, those horny kids), and we are looking good.
The nasty part is that Delta is so virulent, if we relax restrictions it will burn its way through the unvaxxed population. And we don't have the health care capacity to provide ICU vents for all of the people who get sick, even with 95% age 70+ vaccinated and 80%+ of other ages.
Zardnaar
Legend
They were recommending six weeks between doses. But they're pushing it asap now.
We have half the ICU capacity here than other OECD nations they're big on prevention.
90% is single dose.
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Zardnaar
Legend
We did like 3 months between doses in Canada initially (if I remember right), except the most vulnerable.
Then we accelerated the schedule as more doses became available and delta hit.
High vaccine coverage not only lowers ICU and Death rates, but also lowers transmission; if you are 10x less likely to catch it (which is the ballpark for a fully vaccinated person against delta), you can't spread it if you don't catch it. (Once you catch it you are just as infectious, but probably for a shorter window on average).
This is still in question, but there's growing evidence that it may not be true.
Early statements that people with breakthrough infections were "just as infectious" were based on viral counts in the nasal passages - where were still frighteningly high, even in vaccinated people showing little in way of symptoms.
However, more studies are coming out of actual transmission from vaccinated people, and they are not as high as we'd expect for those viral counts. The current best explanation of this is that while there's still a lot of virus in the nasal passages, there's also high antibody concentrations there - so virus may be present, but so coated with antibodies as to be ineffective.
These aren't what I'd call dependable results, though, and there are many details to be studied, so keep wearing your masks, and all that.
Denmark abandoned all Covid meassures with their "freedom day" in early september when they were at ~85% of eligible people (~73 is meassuring total population). Since the end of Semptember their rate of daily new infections per 100k has been skyrocketing and is not again nearing all time high.New framework. Red/orange/green rates tied to vaccine levels (double dosed).
Basically hit 90% vaccine rates no lockdowns.
Some sort of vaccine passport as well. No vaccine no service.
Govt reveals its Covid-19 Protection Framework
The government has announced details of its Covid-19 Protection Framework, involving the roll-out of a 'traffic-light' system once all DHBs hit 90 percent full vaccination rates.
See what happens though once Covid spreads more.
DHB= District Health Board.
Few places are hitting 90% for first dose.
136/100k as of 20th of October, with 173/100k being their all time high, despite the rate of fully vaccinated people have also climbed by another 2% (of total population)
90% of all eligible isn't that much higher than Denmark is now, so looking at the meassures (or rather lack of meassures) on those three levels, I fear you can expect a huge increase in cases in NZ by until end of winter. Silver lining is that most would not be severe for the infected
In Germany there was a club party with 380 guests admitting only fully vaccinated or recovered people. 81 confirmed infections among them. The certificates of the infected have been check by the authorities and they were all valid, so it's not just the club not enforcing the rules correctly.
Also a small ring of cerficate fakers has been busted, who were selling fake vaccation certificates for 350 EUR a piece. The authorities are not able to actually track and void the certificates that they have already sold, due to the way the database is set up due to data privacy restrictions.
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FitzTheRuke
Legend
I think it's "funny" how many people I've seen that complain "vaccine passports destroy our privacy rights!"... on social media. Hey gang, you've destroyed your own privacy by even being ON social media!
Zardnaar
Legend
Denmark abandoned all Covid meassures with their "freedom day" in early september when they were at ~85% of eligible people (~73 is meassuring total population). Since the end of Semptember their rate of daily new infections per 100k has been skyrocketing and is not again nearing all time high.
136/100k as of 20th of October, with 173/100k being their all time high, despite the rate of fully vaccinated people have also climbed by another 2% (of total population)
90% of all eligible isn't that much higher than Denmark is now, so looking at the meassures (or rather lack of meassures) on those three levels, I fear you can expect a huge increase in cases in NZ by until end of winter. Silver lining is that most would not be severe for the infected
In Germany there was a club party with 380 guests admitting only fully vaccinated or recovered people. 81 confirmed infections among them. The certificates of the infected have been check by the authorities and they were all valid, so it's not just the club not enforcing the rules correctly.
Also a small ring of cerficate fakers has been busted, who were selling fake vaccation certificates for 350 EUR a piece. The authorities are not able to actually track and void the certificates that they have already sold, due to the way the database is set up due to data privacy restrictions.
Here I think the passport is going to be electronic linked to government database via your phone.
Anyone here with half a brain has figured out there's gonna be an upsurge in cases.
I've got a vest and worst case scenario number. 90% is going to be hard to hit in some locations but there's a get out of jail review for November.
Theory is they'll open at 85% or whatever if need be. Christmas/summer holidays over new years etc.
Aucklands been locked down since August and people won't tolerate it for much longer. Even the non nutters are sick of it.
And people have worked out there's very little consequences if you do break the rules except if you organize demonstrations of a couple of thousand people.
Even then the guy who did that broke bail organized another one and got bail again so go figure.
