D&D and the rising pandemic


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This is put in a way that may be misleading.

Delta wins because when other strains bring a squad, Delta brings a batallion. Delta simply out-breeds other strains, and your immune system gets swamped by sheer dose.



I don't believe these are accurate descriptions.



Okay, I'm sorry, but you seem to making a bit of a hash of terms.

"Droplet" is anything over about 5 micrometers. "Aerosol" is just a small droplet (under about 50 micrometers). The effective difference between "droplet" transmission and "aerosol" in this context is the length of time the drops stay in the air. Any droplet over 100 micrometers falls out of the air in seconds. From there, the smaller the drop, the longer the hang time.

The vast majority of SARS-COV-2 transmission is by droplet. The pattern of spread we see in Covid-19 in the population is not consistent with aerosol droplets that stay in the air for more than about a half an hour. And, the vast majority of cases are still from folks you were in close immediate contact with - you are both present and within about 6 feet of each other.




"Quite a long time," is relative, and too vague to be useful. The empirical relevant period for covid-19 seems to typically be seconds to half an hour. If Joe has covid, and you enter the space they were in two hours before, your chances of getting sick from Joe are miniscule.

One caveat - this does not hold for spaces that have been permeated with the stuff. If Joe's been in his living room coughing all day, you want to wait substantially longer before you treat that space as safe.
All this discussion about the time a space remains contagious makes me utter a bitter hysterical laughter. They are in the process of reopening schools, and the first thing they say is "We are taking measures! We are thoroughly cleansing all surfaces!" as if the real danger of infection was a building that has been closed for close to two years!
 

All this discussion about the time a space remains contagious makes me utter a bitter hysterical laughter. They are in the process of reopening schools, and the first thing they say is "We are taking measures! We are thoroughly cleansing all surfaces!" as if the real danger of infection was a building that has been closed for close to two years!

Security theater is a thing. My point about when a space becomes safe is on the order of hours to days, not weeks and more.
 


My favorite was at the height of it here when the unmasked folks at the grocery store would meticulously wipe down the handles on the carts.
This time a year ago, a big part of my job was to oversee "decontamination" of public sites our group had temporarily occupied. It mainly consisted of having a contractor walk around the space with a misting machine to spray a weak bleach solution on everything-- usually several days after we'd used the space and it had already opened back up. 🤦‍♂️

But to be fair, it was a very fancy misting machine

I'm sure someone's brother-in-law made an absolute killing off selling that health security theater to us.
 

My favorite was at the height of it here when the unmasked folks at the grocery store would meticulously wipe down the handles on the carts.
At least it accomplishes something. I mean supermarket carts never get washed or cleaned?

As for other security theater, temperature controls. The thermometer does little to no help in detecting cases. Ok, it can filter some cases, but a negligible amount. It got even worse with the stupid internet rumors about the thermometer hurting the brain or stuff. Since they started, people started taking the reading on the wrist instead of the head or neck. Which makes a borderline useless measure even more useless. You can very easily manipulate the temperature in your hand. It is already 0.1-0.2 degrees colder than your head, more so if you just washed your hands. Security theater...
 
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At least it accomplishes something. I mean supermarket carts never get washed or cleaned?

As for other security theater, temperature controls. The thermometer does little to no help in detecting cases. Ok, it can filter some cases, but a negligible amount. It got even worse with the stupid internet rumors about the thermometer hurting the brain or stuff. Since they started, people started taking the reading on the wrist instead of the head or neck. Which makes a borderline useless measure even more useless. You can very easily manipulate the temperature in your hand. It is already 0.1-0.2 degrees colder than your head, more so if you just washed your hands. Security theater...
Wait, what?

You don't have staff cleaning off shopping carts? Seriously? Good grief. Please tell me you at least have alcohol spritzers at the door for your hands.

I wipe down every surface in my school after every class with an alcohol wipe. My school's never been so clean.
 

Wait, what?

You don't have staff cleaning off shopping carts? Seriously? Good grief. Please tell me you at least have alcohol spritzers at the door for your hands.

I wipe down every surface in my school after every class with an alcohol wipe. My school's never been so clean.

I mean, they get cleaned now! but I don't think they were ever cleaned at any point before March last year...
 

people started taking the reading on the wrist instead of the head or neck. ... You can very easily manipulate the temperature in your hand. It is already 0.1-0.2 degrees colder than your head, more so if you just washed your hands.
Or if you have low blood pressure and your hands are cold all the time anyway.

Good thing nobody is trying to aim a temperature scanner at my naturally near-freezing-cold feet...
 

Meanwhile, in positive news.

Pfizer is seeing good results in testing of a new anti-viral drug (named "Paxlovid"), reducing the likelihood of hospitalization or death from covid-19 by 89% in patients in high risk groups. It shows good results when administered within 5 days of showing symptoms, which is extremely promising*.

Pfizer says that they are going to apply for emergency use authorization.

For the curious, the drug is a protease inhibitor. Initially developed for HIV and Hepatitis C treatment, a protease inhibitor... inhibits proteases. A protease is an enzyme that cuts proteins apart - in replication, many viruses make large proteins that get cut apart before assembly into a new virus. So, this drug prevents new viruses from being assembled, by stopping the creation of some of the necessary parts.

This drug started its life in HIV treatment. Nearly 20 years ago, in the SARS epidemic, Pfizer began modifying it into a new drug that would work against coronaviruses. SARS died out too quickly to bring the drug to market, but Pfizer didn't forget about it, and went back to work when covid-19 reared its head.



*Some antivirals are only effective if administered very early in the course of an infection - sometimes, by the time a person feels symptoms and gets tested, it is too late to use them. Thankfully, this seems to not be the case here.
 
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