D&D and the rising pandemic

[niklinna]

Why does it feel like every time this virus mutates, we're rolling the dice and just basically hoping not to get a nat-1?

Because that's basically what's happening.

 

[GreyLord]

It's not how contagious it is, but how lethal it is.

There are colds that are contagious, but not that lethal and so have not really been a factor in recent years. A few versions of Covid (prior to Covid-19) also fit this area.

It is not to hard to understand why the more contagious strains are gaining momentum. As we got better at avoiding the earlier strains via vaccines, social distancing and masks, the only way for the virus mutations to keep infecting people were to find ways around them. It developed ways to infect people who were vaccinated by mutations, as well as mutations that made it easier to infect people despite social distancing being the strains that survived and grew.

If we are lucky, it also coincides with less lethality, but...not necessarily. We still have a version of the Spanish Flu today, and in some ways it may be just as, if not more, contagious. I do not think it is as lethal as it's original strain, which is why we don't make as big a deal about it today. We can HOPE Covid-19 follows this route, but it's hard to say.

It is a hope because strains which keep the host alive longer, and have a longer period of spreading, normally are more effective at remaining around than those that kill the host or kill it quicker. Thus, a less lethal version can be hoped to eventually be the winner in the virus contest.

I think Omicron originally was seen as less lethal than earlier strains, it was the strain that had a combination of Delta and Omicron that got people concerned. So far, it also has seemed less lethal, mostly due to prior infections and vaccination.

New strains are coming up though, We are still in the wild west of Covid. Worse, infection from Omicron doesn't necessarily carry immunity to other mutations of Covid.

 

[Zardnaar]

Think there were "only" 6600 odd cases yesterday.

Stuff

i.stuff.co.nz

7 deaths average was 13 a week ago. You can test yourself these days using RATs and the covid app to get counted.

Few people not testing themselves though or reporting positive. It was due to 10 days off due to isolation requirements and not everyone can afford the time off work. Think it's down to 7 days now. Deaths are up to 713.

Inflations up to around 7% and house prices are finally going down wouldn't be surprised if that bubble pops.

 

[Umbran]

It's not how contagious it is, but how lethal it is.

It is both. Common influenza isn't considered deadly by most people, but it typically kills tens of thousands of people in the US each year, because it is pretty contagious, and when you get millions of cases, the statistically rare things still build up.

In addition, it isn't like the only thing you have to worry about with covid is death. But there's "long covid". Then, there's some signs that there's risk of long term neurological, pulmonary, or cardiac issues - scarring and permanent damage to lung tissue, increased risk of heart attack, and even possibly increased risk of Alzheimer's or dementia later in life. I hope to goodness that further research shows these to be minimal, but they are still concerning now.

So, no, it isn't just how lethal it is. The disease doesn't need to directly kill people to have impact.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Exactly. As the song goes, “Everything counts in large amounts.”

Higher contagiousness leads to more cases. More cases increases the odds of the rarer probabilities actually occurring. That’s just basic statistical reality.

But when it’s someone close to you, “just statistics” is cold comfort.

 

[Zardnaar]

We tolerate death tolls in all sorts of things. Sport, booze, cigarettes etc.

Comment: The government has given up on Covid

Analysis - In the face of record high autumn deaths and the prospect of another surge in sickness, the government appears to have no strategy for handling Covid-19, Marc Daalder writes.

www.rnz.co.nz

Our government kinda threw in the towel once it escaped en masse. 6 month rearguard action.

People weren't obeying the rules and got complacent. Can't be on alert 24/7 years in a row it lasted around 18 months and kinda fell apart.

Once it became obvious in March or so game over. Mask use is really good in shops etc but the rules are a bit stupid.

You can go to a bar or nightclub eat and drink without a mask with 200 of your closest friends but you have to wear one in an empty retail store go figure.

Another reason they gave up.

Stuff

i.stuff.co.nz

They were hiring a company to monitor social media and were responding to that. Covid response was basically the only thing they had or at least THE thing.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

We tolerate death tolls in all sorts of things. Sport, booze, cigarettes etc.

We do, but generally, the more preventable the death, the less tolerant we are that it happened.

Plus, as noted more than once in this thread, COVID is less of a killer and more of a maimer. While its death toll is relatively low, the number of potentially life-altering ancillary effects it can generate is large.

 

[Zardnaar]

We do, but generally, the more preventable the death, the less tolerant we are that it happened.

Plus, as noted more than once in this thread, COVID is less of a killer and more of a maimer. While its death toll is relatively low, the number of potentially life-altering ancillary effects it can generate is large.

Not disagreeing but it's got to the "what are you gonna do point" seemingly worldwide.

Here up until late last yeah the wall had cracks and was leaking and then things fell apart rapidly. Even hardcore anti Covid types kinda gave up.

Father in law with cancer treatment more or less went into isolation for a couple of months. But once his daughters family got Covid family dinners and lunches started up once the peak passed. RATs tests do get used and we had a family thing on Saturday night first time since sometime last year.

Everyone is double vaxxed+booster but the social isolation did it in. We're not really socializing as such eg going to large events but cracks are starting now eg going out at 6pm on a Saturday night.

I didn't particularly want to go but went anyway because wife was going hell or high water. 5/13 had Covid Granny is in her 80's and has that WW2 type mentality.

And we were kinda the last holdouts most people just went meh once Omicron took off. I was only going out early Sunday morning and Tuesday/Wednesday night. Supermarket and 1-2 meals a week.

Social life consisted of talking to masked barmaids/barista and neighbors socially distanced from over the fence/balcony.

Also knocked out 4 seasons of Stargate Atlantis fairly quickly.

 

[NotAYakk]

Omicron's reduced death rate is mostly because it infected vaccinated or previously infected populations. Maybe not entirely.

And in those populations, Omicron was much deadlier than other variants would have been; the other variants would not have even infected most of the people, let alone killed them.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Not disagreeing but it's got to the "what are you gonna do point" seemingly worldwide.

Keep fighting the bug. The alternative is…

Well, Umbran pointed out earlier in this thread that a pandemic could be a species’ test in The Great Filter.