D&D and the rising pandemic

[NotAYakk]

R0 is a broad statistical measure of how many others a carrier will infect in a population, overall. It does not really speak to, "what is my chance of catching (and thus spreading) during a specific trip to a grocery store".

But it does tell you the derivative of the risk.

An R0 of 3 with a average spread of 4 days means every 8 days there are 10x more people infected. So your chance of getting it after two weeks is roughly 100x greater.

An R0 of 0.5 and effective self isolation when symptomatic means that after 2 weeks, there are 1.75x as many sick, but fewer people symptomatic walking around.

So what the R0 is and what the population behaviour is to symptoms changes if it is more short term personally risky now or in 2 weeks.

But social distancing this isn't about short term personal risk. It is about group risk. It is about keeping the infected rate below health care capacity, and in the medium term dropping the population risk to near zero.

Your personal short term risk from failing to social distance can be small, but the medium-long cost to the group can be huge, at the same time.

Acts that raise R0 (failing to social distance) right now have much higher costs than they will in 4 weeks, unless we go the Iran route of "oh well, just let millions die" and surrender.

 

[FrogReaver]

But it does tell you the derivative of the risk.

An R0 of 3 with a average spread of 4 days means every 8 days there are 10x more people infected. So your chance of getting it after two weeks is roughly 100x greater.

An R0 of 0.5 and effective self isolation when symptomatic means that after 2 weeks, there are 1.75x as many sick, but fewer people symptomatic walking around.

So what the R0 is and what the population behaviour is to symptoms changes if it is more short term personally risky now or in 2 weeks.

But social distancing this isn't about short term personal risk. It is about group risk. It is about keeping the infected rate below health care capacity, and in the medium term dropping the population risk to near zero.

Your personal short term risk from failing to social distance can be small, but the medium-long cost to the group can be huge, at the same time.

Acts that raise R0 (failing to social distance) right now have much higher costs than they will in 4 weeks, unless we go the Iran route of "oh well, just let millions die" and surrender.

You seem to believe personal risk of catching and group risk of catching are independent. I would say they are very much dependent. If I minimize my individual chances of catching then I’m minimizing chances of spreading. Amazing how that works.

 

[Nebulous]

Some epidemiologists recommend that we basically quarantine ourselves until a vaccine is widely available in 1.5-2 years.

I don't know how long people will put up with the social isolation though, at a certain point I suspect that it will only be the vulnerable few who stay isolated. I suspect that unless it's really, really bad most people will put up with 2-4 weeks.

Especially because there's no guarantee there will ever be an effective vaccine.

I think we will get a vaccine eventually, but not soon enough to prevent catastrophic economic damage and deaths. The social isolation is another problem. Some people can handle it better than others. Some will Netflix and chill and be ok, others will be pulling their hair out after 3 days. Now is probably the best time to be an extreme introvert.

 

[Oofta]

I think we will get a vaccine eventually, but not soon enough to prevent catastrophic economic damage and deaths. The social isolation is another problem. Some people can handle it better than others. Some will Netflix and chill and be ok, others will be pulling their hair out after 3 days. Now is probably the best time to be an extreme introvert.

Yeah, I could probably live with the "10 people or less" gatherings for quite a while since I have 6 players in my D&D group. I mean if I really have to I'll fire up Roll20, the campaign must go on!

But the economic impact on small businesses, bars and restaurants not to mention the people that work there is going to be devastating. It's all going to have a huge ripple effect we're going to be dealing with for years.

 

[Zardnaar]

But it does tell you the derivative of the risk.

An R0 of 3 with a average spread of 4 days means every 8 days there are 10x more people infected. So your chance of getting it after two weeks is roughly 100x greater.

An R0 of 0.5 and effective self isolation when symptomatic means that after 2 weeks, there are 1.75x as many sick, but fewer people symptomatic walking around.

So what the R0 is and what the population behaviour is to symptoms changes if it is more short term personally risky now or in 2 weeks.

But social distancing this isn't about short term personal risk. It is about group risk. It is about keeping the infected rate below health care capacity, and in the medium term dropping the population risk to near zero.

Your personal short term risk from failing to social distance can be small, but the medium-long cost to the group can be huge, at the same time.

Acts that raise R0 (failing to social distance) right now have much higher costs than they will in 4 weeks, unless we go the Iran route of "oh well, just let millions die" and surrender.

Iran hasn't had millions die, as of last night it was less than 1000.

They've also got a young population.

If it goes on long term lockdowns will have to end.

 

[Nebulous]

Yeah, I could probably live with the "10 people or less" gatherings for quite a while since I have 6 players in my D&D group. I mean if I really have to I'll fire up Roll20, the campaign must go on!

Oh, is that the number of people they're quoting? I wasn't sure. I wonder if they'll eventually say don't even risk 10 people...

 

[HarbingerX]

For everyone who's discussing the numbers and what they mean, here is an excellent research piece on how to interpret the data and challenges with coming up with things like death rates.

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research

 

[Oofta]

Oh, is that the number of people they're quoting? I wasn't sure. I wonder if they'll eventually say don't even risk 10 people...

It's the current recommendation by the CDC here in the US for the next 8 weeks, no gatherings more than 10 people. Obviously it would be safer to individually lock ourselves in our bathrooms, but I think they were attempting a more realistic compromise.

 

[MoonSong]

Ironically low stocks of deodorant and toothpaste, feminine products.

Gotta smell nice for the apocalypse hiding in your toilet paper fort.

Don't underestimate the need for these products. Monthly cycles don't magically stop under quarantine you know.

 

[Zardnaar]

Don't underestimate the need for these products. Monthly cycles don't magically stop under quarantine you know.

The reason it's low is some people have a years supply.

Some people don't get it. We got the last packet of blue top powdered milk last night. Wife was complaining it's not the low fat option.

She's also complaining bshe doesn't want to eat canned food. If we both get sick well.....

Just ate breakfast. Breakfast cereal that expired four months ago. Did a taste test last night and it was fine.

We organised the cupboards and threw out the really expired stuff.

Not to worried about best before dates on a few foods. All the hipster stuff is gone. She complained because I bought self raising flour. "Can't make bread with it" well I can make banana cake with it and we have some over ripe ones.

First world problems.