D&D and the rising pandemic

[FrogReaver]

Seems to me that for the immediate future now is the safest time to go to the grocery stores. After 2 more weeks of exponential growth seems a lot more risky.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Grocery stores near me were saner than the last time. Oh, here was still evidence of panic buying, but the crowds were borderline normal.

Hell, when I got to the front, I was immediately waved over by a checker with no customers.

 

[Zardnaar]

Went in at 7:30 pm just to compare vs our normal early morning shop.

Plenty of toilet paper and towels.

Canned food and similar things taken a hit. No bread but that's not to unusual at night.

Pallets of canned goods and pasta though. Maybe they're not sticking shelves and just putting it in the open sections.

Bought last packet of powdered milk. Sweet chilli sauce gone. No normal flour, got some self raising flour.

Emptied the cupboards and threw out persishibles. Found 4 month expired breakfast cereal tasted alright so put it into rotation.

Ironically low stocks of deodorant and toothpaste, feminine products.

Gotta smell nice for the apocalypse hiding in your toilet paper fort.

Also sold out of paracetamol, was on the shelves last Thursday suggested we buy some got naughty word down.

This week "wish they had Panadol".

 

[NotAYakk]

The point of social distancing isn't to reduce risk for you, it is to drop R0.

"I should risk it now when it is less risky than later" is sort of upside down. We are trying to not risk it now so that later it is less risky.

If it works, now (near the start of social distancing) is the riskiest time. Both because R0 drops under 1.0 (so it becomes more rare under distancing), and because the 2-3 week delayed spike overloading the medical system will just hit when you have to go to the hospital if you get a moderate to severe case.

For most people, the point of social distancing isn't to protect them it is to prevent them from catching then spreading it, and overloading the medical system. So the goal is to get R0 down, not "not catch it". Which is abstract, and leads to you not catching it.

 

[Umbran]

Plenty of toilet paper and towels.

As of yesterday afternoon in my area, across two groceries: no paper towels or toilet tissue to be found. No flour, white sugar, yeast or chemical leaveners. No pasta. No frozen vegetables. The only chicken to be found were wings.

 

[FrogReaver]

The point of social distancing isn't to reduce risk for you, it is to drop R0.

"I should risk it now when it is less risky than later" is sort of upside down. We are trying to not risk it now so that later it is less risky.

If it works, now (near the start of social distancing) is the riskiest time. Both because R0 drops under 1.0 (so it becomes more rare under distancing), and because the 2-3 week delayed spike overloading the medical system will just hit when you have to go to the hospital if you get a moderate to severe case.

For most people, the point of social distancing isn't to protect them it is to prevent them from catching then spreading it, and overloading the medical system. So the goal is to get R0 down, not "not catch it". Which is abstract, and leads to you not catching it.

If I’m going to have to go out it’s better for everyone if I do so early then later when there is a lot more that have it in my area. There’s less chance of me getting it this way which is less chance of me spreading it this way - aka lower r0. How can you argue anything else?

 

[HarbingerX]

For those interested, a preliminary version of this study reportedly convinced the UK and US to change their more cavalier approach to the outbreak. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand

Most of the details are UK-focused.

 

[HarbingerX]

If I’m going to have to go out it’s better for everyone if I do so early then later when there is a lot more that have it in my area. There’s less chance of me getting it this way which is less chance of me spreading it this way - aka lower r0. How can you argue anything else?

If everyone does that, then it continues to spread. Later there will be more recovered patients lessening the chance of transmission.

 

[FrogReaver]

If everyone does that, then it continues to spread. Later there will be more recovered patients lessening the chance of transmission.

if everyone waits till 2 weeks from now when their supplies get low it will contribute to even more spreading.

If everyone would stay at home for the next 2 weeks then your proposal makes sense - but that’s not the way it works in the real world.

 

[HarbingerX]

If everyone is isolating for 2 weeks, then those who are infected but currently not symptomatic will become symptomatic or recover. So 2 weeks from now, those who are currently infected but are yet to become sick will not be among those going outside.

This is how it works in the real world.