D&D (2024) D&D Pre-orders; this is sad

[UngeheuerLich]

The topic has been cleared many times. I was not the best at explaining my point succinctly, but others did.

You want facts? In the last two years WotC proved to us that they're a hyper-corporate environment that puts their profit before their customer, the quality of their product, the ecosystem in which it evolves. They attempted to sneakily take over the OGL with some incredibly predatory clauses which might have hurt the ecosystem a ton. They went against their word regarding the usage of AI multiple times. And that's without talking about the Pinkertons, the sensitivity issues, etc.

The people that take decisions are not passionated creatives anymore. They said D&D is undermonetized, they said they wanted to move intro other quadrants, we've seen an enormous amount of garbage merch of all kind popup. Now, allow me to be clear, they're not worse than other hyper-corporate entities, they're just one of them now.

You want more facts? They bought D&D Beyond and they're developing their own VTT. Both are closed ecosystems where they get full control over what you own, what they put out and the terms of use. There are numerous cases in other industries (software, video games, hardware) where closed ecosystem prove to be problematic for users and their rights.

Now, the image I shared at the start. Is it world-ending? No. It's some book bundles. However, the details, which are the little insignificant things like the number of backdrops, the enticing to buying more with exclusive material, the early access. These are all elements I've seen in other industries. They're a first step, and in every case I've seen the second, third and subsequent steps taken.

I'm seeing this as a warning sign of what's to come. Will it necessarily come to pass? No. Is this thread motivated by fear? Yes it is.

You know what I think will happen? Here it is, clearly layed out, in a very rough chronological order.
1) They will continue to increase the monetization of products outside of the books. They will sell you models in the VTT, avatars, exclusive packs on D&D Beyond. They will entice you to go online with bonus content if you have a DDB account, etc.
2) At one point, the over-monetized will generate more revenue than the books. At this point, they will increase the pressure by increasing the value proposition in the digital part, in their closed ecosystem. 3RD parties will have to follow their rules, or they won't be allowed on their VTT or on DDB; and for anyone wanting to make some revenue that will mean failure (just like the app stores on phones).
3) Eventually, there will be so much incentive to push people completely in their closed ecosystem tied with movies, video games that they will decrease the value proposition of the books.
4) Finally, the erosion towards their closed digital platforms will be so far, that they will simply stop making the books. Or they won't stop, because it won't matter and the majority of the customers will be on the digital platforms. They target audience will have changed.

That someone would tell me that they don't think things will go down that path can be both fine and logical to me. Howerver, I can't fathom how anyone would look at me like a crazy man when this exact enshittification has happened in so many other spheres of our life. We have so many examples of how gross capitalism has affected some IPs, some companies, their products and how some, much bigger than D&D, have shifted audiences suddenly. It's hard for me to not look outside the window right now and see signs of this everywhere.

If you think WotC are a good-hearted company and that there's no reason to worry at all. Fine. You can feel that way. And I'm interested in hearing what makes you feel that way, you might have a different perspective and background than me. I'm actually interested in discussions. But the way you feel towards this is not more or less legitimate than how I feel.

I don't think they are good hearted. Neither are they the worst predators out there. I think we now see some posts that are very hyperbolic.

I did understand you, no problem.
It is your conclusions that are not convincing.

As you say: the audience has changed. Some may feel left behind. I am sorry for them. But it would be totally stupid of a company to not target them with what they want.

As long as there are people buying books, they sell books.

 

[UngeheuerLich]

sounds like you have not actually read the SRD…

I have seen it. ToV seemed to have no problem making a very similar game. It might not be the new hip WotC version, but it will be a good version of the game.

 

[UngeheuerLich]

recreate, not simply print the SRD which supposedly contains all of 5e (“everything is written there”), as was suggested

Yeah. I guess you know exactly what I meant. Everything that is needed to recreate the game is written there.

 

[Chaosmancer]

You want more facts? They bought D&D Beyond and they're developing their own VTT. Both are closed ecosystems where they get full control over what you own, what they put out and the terms of use. There are numerous cases in other industries (software, video games, hardware) where closed ecosystem prove to be problematic for users and their rights.

Right. Pause. This part here is important.

Software cannot run without hardware. I purchased a game for my Amazon Kindle a few years back, and the developers stopped supporting it, because Amazon sales of the game were not high enough to continue making it a justified decision. I have no recourse because I cannot access the software and re-code the game to work. BTW, video games are software

Hardware is likely talking about Apple. The most famous being their charging cables. Apple put out hardware then made it impossible to recharge that hardware without their charging cables. If I had ever purchased apple, I would have no recourse, because I cannot manufacture a charging cable in my house.


So, let us say that DnD makes their rules entirely digital and then takes their VTT and makes it paywalled. What could I possibly... oh wait. I don't USE VTT's to play DnD. IF they paywalled their VTT and I cannot do anything with it without paying them... I can just continue to not use it. So, is the fear that they will create a new subclass or something, make that subclass exclusive to the VTT and then I will have no access to that subclass without paying? Well... would I have no access to it? All it would take is a single discussion online of how the abilities work with the majority of the rules text... and I can copy it.

Because to play DnD I don't need to manufacture hardware or code software... I just need pencils, notebook paper and the rules text. And the DnD community is so full of power-gamers, optimizers, rules-lawyers, ect ect that any and all rules text that hits the community is spread and dissected within a week. This is even true of video games. For most games, if I dug around I could find the precise percentage and formulas for the abilities and weapons in the games. It is all out there.

So how does WoTC create a walled garden, then prevent ANY information from leaking out of it?

You know what I think will happen? Here it is, clearly layed out, in a very rough chronological order.
1) They will continue to increase the monetization of products outside of the books. They will sell you models in the VTT, avatars, exclusive packs on D&D Beyond. They will entice you to go online with bonus content if you have a DDB account, etc.

Obviously this will happen. There is no way this won't happen.

2) At one point, the over-monetized will generate more revenue than the books. At this point, they will increase the pressure by increasing the value proposition in the digital part, in their closed ecosystem. 3RD parties will have to follow their rules, or they won't be allowed on their VTT or on DDB; and for anyone wanting to make some revenue that will mean failure (just like the app stores on phones).

Will it? How do you know that selling avatars and digital minis will generate more revenue for the company than the books do? Especially since, those things are worthless without the rules text? As for not being allowed on DDB... they only recently started partnering with people on DDB, and those companies existed and were making products long before that.

Additionally, you are saying that they will fail if they can't access the VTT or DDB just like app stores on phones... but this is a false dichotomy. If you cannot access Google Play or Apple play then yes your phone app will fail, because there is no other way for people to access your content and use it than playing on an android or apple device. But if you sell a book to DnD players, and you can't get access to DDB... your product can still be used and it will still make sales. Because people play the game using pencil and paper, or digital forums. The only thing any of my digital DnD games need to function, is we occasionally use maps and pictures to showcase positioning. But unless Roll20 dies and no software is capable of creating a grid and being screenshot then there is no reason for us to use the VTT of Wizards.

The products are too different.

3) Eventually, there will be so much incentive to push people completely in their closed ecosystem tied with movies, video games that they will decrease the value proposition of the books.
4) Finally, the erosion towards their closed digital platforms will be so far, that they will simply stop making the books. Or they won't stop, because it won't matter and the majority of the customers will be on the digital platforms. They target audience will have changed.

IF they stop making books, but still make PDFs.. then I still won't need to use their VTT. I just need the rules text, and only one person in my group would need to have access to that.

That someone would tell me that they don't think things will go down that path can be both fine and logical to me. Howerver, I can't fathom how anyone would look at me like a crazy man when this exact enshittification has happened in so many other spheres of our life. We have so many examples of how gross capitalism has affected some IPs, some companies, their products and how some, much bigger than D&D, have shifted audiences suddenly. It's hard for me to not look outside the window right now and see signs of this everywhere.

If you think WotC are a good-hearted company and that there's no reason to worry at all. Fine. You can feel that way. And I'm interested in hearing what makes you feel that way, you might have a different perspective and background than me. I'm actually interested in discussions. But the way you feel towards this is not more or less legitimate than how I feel.

It isn't that I feel WoTC is a good-hearted company, it is that the product WoTC sells is too different than the other spheres you keep bringing up. To me, this is like saying Wal-Mart is going to control out food because they started selling food online, and they will get us bound in a subscription service because you saw that happen to video games. The problem is, selling food is different than selling video games, the way people interact with food is different than the way they interact with video games.

Your concern seems to stem from the conception that DnD Beyond will become the sole and only possible way to make a profit in the TTRPG space, and therefore no other company will sell any product outside of DnD Beyond. But that, to me, obviously cannot happen. Because while DnD Beyond is convenient for some players to use... it isn't how the majority of people I know actually interact with the game.

 

[I'm A Banana]

There is no reason for them to ever stop selling books as long as there is significant demand.

As long as there are people buying books, they sell books.

This isn't how demand actually works.

Say WotC makes 50% profit on a book sale.

Say they make closer to 80% profit on a sale of a month of DDB subscription.

Now, every time someone buys a book instead of buying a DDB subscription, WotC makes less money off of them. This could even be true if the DDB subscription is cheaper than a book sale. Fewer raw $ coming in from books than from DDB.

So the thing a profit-seeking company is going to do is drive everyone to DDB subscriptions. Give incentives for them. Design for them. Funnel people in that direction. Set up the flow of dollars so they flow more to DDB. If the subscriptions cannibalize the book sales, they make more money without having to make a better product.

If that effort is successful enough, we could see the books getting worse. Because they're not as protifable, see. So why invest in high quality print runs or big glossy artwork or expensive binding? They're not worth as much money, it's fine if they're not great products - better, even, since that'll drive as many people as possible to DDB.

And maybe then WotC books get a reputation for being trash, or for just including reprints of the stuff you already get online, or for being superfluous to the D&D experience when the online subscription gives you so much.

And maybe they keep publishing books for a while out of a vague sense of obligation or because there's enough grognards who buy cheap books to keep a thin trickle of money coming in. Or maybe they stop because really the books aren't great these days and everyone plays online anyway, well everyone who matters, anyway, everyone who spends money on the most profitable products, anyway.

I don't think we're really there today (books are still the main thing), or really on the path, but I do think we could be there in 5-10 years, if the pressure to monetize is there, and if the people sitting in decision-making seats get super into maximizing profitability for D&D specifically. And, maybe crucially, if the online product isn't tooooooo trash.

 

[Oofta]

This isn't how demand actually works.

Say WotC makes 50% profit on a book sale.

Say they make closer to 80% profit on a sale of a month of DDB subscription.

Now, every time someone buys a book instead of buying a DDB subscription, WotC makes less money off of them. This could even be true if the DDB subscription is cheaper than a book sale. Fewer raw $ coming in from books than from DDB.

So the thing a profit-seeking company is going to do is drive everyone to DDB subscriptions. Give incentives for them. Design for them. Funnel people in that direction. Set up the flow of dollars so they flow more to DDB. If the subscriptions cannibalize the book sales, they make more money without having to make a better product.

If that effort is successful enough, we could see the books getting worse. Because they're not as protifable, see. So why invest in high quality print runs or big glossy artwork or expensive binding? They're not worth as much money, it's fine if they're not great products - better, even, since that'll drive as many people as possible to DDB.

And maybe then WotC books get a reputation for being trash, or for just including reprints of the stuff you already get online, or for being superfluous to the D&D experience when the online subscription gives you so much.

And maybe they keep publishing books for a while out of a vague sense of obligation or because there's enough grognards who buy cheap books to keep a thin trickle of money coming in. Or maybe they stop because really the books aren't great these days and everyone plays online anyway, well everyone who matters, anyway, everyone who spends money on the most profitable products, anyway.

I don't think we're really there today (books are still the main thing), or really on the path, but I do think we could be there in 5-10 years, if the pressure to monetize is there, and if the people sitting in decision-making seats get super into maximizing profitability for D&D specifically. And, maybe crucially, if the online product isn't tooooooo trash.

I disagree because the books tend to be one of two main hooks to get peopleintothe hobby. You have the free version of DDB of course, but a lot of people still want a book to start with. Grandma is unlikely to purchase a subscription, but a PHB? Sign her up. That and people don't always have cheap unlimited internet access. You want to give them options.

Books may not be as profitable, they just have to be a gateway.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

I don't think they are good hearted. Neither are they the worst predators out there. I think we now see some posts that are very hyperbolic.

I hope not, since we live in a world with agrobusiness megacorporations and weapons contractors. The worst are really bad. As far as I know, WotC isn't cavalierly trying to goose Hasbro stock prices with practices that they know will likely lead to the deaths of real people.

 

[Malmuria]

If they continue to make products I find valuable I'll continue purchasing the ones that I will use.

I think, for some people, it would be shame if wotc, as the official producer of d&d, stopped making products they considered worth purchasing. They are worried that wotc is moving to business models that focus on things that are optimized for monetization (online peripherals) but not really core to their experience of the game (content-rich books). It's not an irrational worry.

I will say that once you move past the "official producer of d&d" part, this stops being so much of a concern. Also the advantage that TTRPGS have is no matter how much dndbeyond or the new vtt gets enshittified, the hobby can always move back to pen and paper.

 

[Parmandur]

Honestly, I see the actual core game being well-served if the income stream becomes more focused on aesthetic doodads on the VTT: because that means WotC will not seek to monetize mucking with the rules too much, the mistake of the 3E /4E eras.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

I think, for some people, it would be shame if wotc, as the official producer of d&d, stopped making products they considered worth purchasing. They are worried that wotc is moving to business models that focus on things that are optimized for monetization (online peripherals) but not really core to their experience of the game (content-rich books). It's not an irrational worry.

I would argue White Wolf did that in the late 1990s, producing content that they had to have known likely didn't work in actual play, but which would appeal to collectors and game readers, rather than game players. They eventually had a dramatic conclusion to the entire Old World of Darkness line, because it was seen as what would sell to readers who had allegedly been "demanding" it.

White Wolf's current situation is much reduced, to put it mildly.

I will say that once you move past the "official producer of d&d" part, this stops being so much of a concern.

Yeah, the OGL debacle has made RPGs and specifically 5E much more resilient, so long as you're not solely focused on WotC IP. WotC could follow the White Wolf path off a cliff and people could play 5E forever with big beautiful hardcovers sold by a number of companies, to say nothing of all the non-5E games out there.