D20 saturation at an end?

[barsoomcore]

I agree with Chuck insofar as there isn't and hasn't been a glut in the RPG marketplace. Or at least, that lots of books getting published hasn't been a problem.

A lot of publishers got into the d20 market when it opened. That's to be expected. Nobody could really predict the opportunity, so lots of people got optimistic and went for it. It's been a few years now and the size and shape of the market are easier to discern. Naturally, some people are looking at the newly-easy-to-see market and saying, "You know what? Not for me."

That's not a problem. You gotta expect turnover. Good for folks who are smart enough to see that an opportunity isn't worth pursuing. Too bad for folks who really wanted to make a go of it and couldn't, but the market is a tough place. And good for folks who have found a business model that works and are executing it.

But it isn't a sign of glut or problem or anything like that. It's just a normal day in the free market.

everything will be made in china

Yeah, I'd like to see that.

 

[Drifter Bob]

But it isn't a sign of glut or problem or anything like that. It's just a normal day in the free market.

Yeah, I'd like to see that.

Another normal day in the free market was the 1929 crash...

As for china making rpg material, who would have thought that Chinese films would be making such headway in Hollywood as they are?


J

 

[grodog]

Not everyone is bailing on the d20 market.

The old broker's adage is that the best time to invest in the stock market is when the the prices are way down and you hate to buy anything; similarly, the best time to sell is when you think the stock price can only keep going up and up and up, with no roof in sight.

In part, that is why Different Worlds Publications returned to the rpg industry now. Everyone in the industry's been talking about the d20 glut for almost three years; many publishers have fallen to the wayside or have recently begun to scale back their product lines. DWP sees this market, at this time, as ripe with opportunity.

The d20 market finally seems to be over the lust for new crunch at the expense of quality fluff, and seems to want creative products that are not splatbooks. By bringing well-written, and thought-provoking original campaign settings, adventure modules, and sourcebooks to market, DWP hopes to cater to the discerning gamers who are sick of what the d20 glut represented.

 

[barsoomcore]

Who would have thought that Chinese films would be making such headway in Hollywood as they are?

Me. But then I'm more startled it's taking so long.

 

[Akrasia]

triple post ... sorry

 

[Akrasia]

Customer base for d20 = DM population + random (low) % of players. Thus the D20 market is @ 2 x DM Population that is aware of 3rd party publishers.

Aaron.

I just have to say that I love this.

But I'd like a graph to go with it, please.

 

[Akrasia]

triple post ... sorry

 

[Arnwyn]

Well in the first place, in what other industry is glut bad?

In any industry in which certain products are pushed out because retailers/distributors refuse to carry them because there are so many. (Whatever industries they may be.)

Who says "Wow look at all these cars! I already have a car, do I really need more cars? They just keep making them every year. And what's with all the copying going on? Ford makes SUVs, why does Chrysler have to make them too?"

To actually compare apples to apples, I'll improve your little analogy.

First, to get this out of the way: everyone has/needs a car, and cars wear out. Thus, they are always needed to be manufactured. Thus, cars are an obvious poor comparison right from the start. Okay, that's taken care of.

People certainly would complain that there's a "glut" causing problems if they were told: "Well, you can only buy a GM or Ford in City X. The vast number of cars has caused our car distributors to only distribute cars that are well known - that means you'll only be able to test drive a GM or Ford, here. If you want a Mitsubishi, Volkswagen, or BMW, you'll have to buy one over the internet. Test drive? Not likely. Good day, sir."

Further, in reference to the first part that I pointed out, if cars didn't wear out as quickly and people could continue driving theirs for 25+ years, you will also hear people suddenly start talking about a "glut" of cars.

Finally, as for the "copying" - as long as the different car companies have different designs, there will be the same "types" of vehicles (eg. SUVs). If you want to draw comparisons, then it could be construed as the same as a multitude of "splatbooks". But really, the comparison is invalid. Until gamers start forming "Cover Art Clubs", the analogy is dead. Different values.

Yeah, there's a glut. Yeah, it causes problems. Somebody ask the small publishers why they're not in my LGS. I know what my LGS and their distributors said - right to my face.

Merely pointing out that if you hate glut, the companies mentioned in the original thread aren't the place to go looking for it.

I do agree with that. But, the clear lack of experience many people have with the "smaller" publishers shows that because of that lack of experience, they won't cry if they disappear - thus, the smaller guys get picked on first.