D20 saturation at an end?

[jester47]

Customer base for d20 = DM population + random (low) % of players. Thus the D20 market is @ 2 x DM Population that is aware of 3rd party publishers.

Aaron.

 

[WizarDru]

Sorry for the slight highjack, but what happened to Kay Bee? I'm just curious as I used to work for them and I never remember hearing about anything crushing happening. The one I worked at has always remained open in my town's mall and a new KB Toy Works that opened up several years ago in a local strip mall has been around for quite a while too.

Kay-bee continued to try to live off of large margins on a small selection, and it destroyed them and FAO. They both were charging very high margins, and consumers weren't paying those numbers any more. I buy a lot of toys for my kids, and a barbie that's $3-$5 more with no additional value or better service isn't going to get my money. Kaybee was always, in my area, routinely at least a dollar more expensive on every item.

EW YORK (Reuters) - KB Toys Inc. Wednesday filed for bankruptcy on the heels of a soft holiday shopping season wrought by harsh competition from bigger retailers, according to court papers.

KB, controlled by private investment firm Bain Capital, is the second major toy chain to fall into bankruptcy in recent weeks. FAO Inc., parent of the iconic FAO Schwarz, in December filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection for the second time in a year.

KB filed its Chapter 11 petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.

The announcement comes weeks after the company confirmed it withheld December payments to its toy and video game suppliers because of weak sales.

"Given the delay in payments to vendors, this is probably the best way to re-establish the relationship and allow the vendors to ship with a greater degree of confidence," said analyst Sean McGowan of Harris Nesbitt Gerard.

The holiday period is usually the big money maker for toy retailers, but this latest season brought severe competition as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT: Research, Estimates), Target Corp. (TGT: Research, Estimates) and other major players slashed prices to lure customers.

I find it amusing that you think the only competetors who were ever smothered by Wal-Mart were other large chains. Thats like saying McDonalds only effects Burger King. Maybe you live in some part of the country where they never had small businesses of any kind even in your childhood.

I think you need to reread my post above. I didn't say that. I had and HAVE plenty of small business in my neighborhood. They survived because they found a way to compete. But that's really not a discussion for this thread. I think your analogy really doesn't apply to the d20 market; you may disagree. If so, we can always start another thread to discuss it.

 

[Imagicka]

Greetings...

As a side-note...Katerek...how does one become a professional game master?
How in the world did you ever fall into that?

 

[Dr. Harry]

Exactly. There's no announcement of folks like Green Ronin, or Malhavoc, for instance, getting out of d20. It's not like d20 is drying up. All it means is that some guys are realigning their business to be more profitable. Those guys who consistently put out high quality product, and are able to do so at a good cost, don't seem to be getting out the market anytime soon...

I don't think that it can be considered to be that "pure". As an example, Altas Games has released a number of supplements that (while personal tastes may vary) I consider to be absolutely first rate (Dynasties & Demagogues, Crime & Punishment, the Penumbra Fantasy Bestiary, etc.). These have all been well-reviewed, but there have been so many d20 products on the market that random exposure is having a greater effect than natural market forces.

On the bright side, these products still exist, and will (I hope) provide a boost to the legitimate PDF market.

 

[Dr. Harry]

Oh, c'mon! Settlers is huge; that barely qualifies as an indie game anymore. Now if he'd asked you to play Power Grid or Ice Pyramids, I'd have been a bit more impressed...

Try these ...


http://www.liveoakgames.com/

 

[Mark]

Anymore? Many never looked for it to begin with. I've yet to use a prestige class out of the DMG, let alone from a 3rd part d20 publisher. Same with feats and spells, as what isn't unbalancing usually doesn't fit with our game.

I think lots of people bought into d20 early and spent, spent, spent. Now many of those people are sitting there looking at the full book shelves, trying to figure out why they spent all of that money, for so little return on gameday.

I'm one of them.

Many of the d20 titles I own have seen no use at my table. Of the books I have used, I'm not so sure I got a good bang for the buck (this is of course, highly subjective). For instance, if I use 1 monster 1 time out of a book that cost me $34.95 + tax, was it worth the purchase? Well, maybe, but it had better be one of the best times I've ever had playing D&D. Simply put, the overall return on invenstment just ins't worth it anymore to me. I plan on using the material I have, selling what I don't (at a loss), and very carefully scrutinizing every RPG purchase from here on out. No more impulse buys.

I'm willing to bet that lots of other people are feeling the same way.

Do you use your SRD 3.5 Revised Bundle much?

 

[Drifter Bob]

I think your analogy really doesn't apply to the d20 market; you may disagree. If so, we can always start another thread to discuss it.

Well, you may think UFO's abducted Elvis, for all I care, it doesn't effect my opinion.

We are currently turning the bend on one extreme with the saturation of the D20 market. People have complained a lot about this overabundance of material. Well, Wal-Mart is a good example of the ultimate possible expression of other extreme, the other end of the pendulum.

And frankly, with the current trend in the nations economy and the RPG industry, Wal-Mart could easily become THE FLGS for many or even most people. In that case they WOULD become the arbiter of the content to a large degree simply because they control the majority of the market, just as they do with music and literature on sale there now.

I have seen them move into other hobbies that nobody thought they would, and the very negative consequenses therof. One example is the aquarium industry. Wal-mart now carries exotic fish which used to only be available at aquarium speciality shops. These include predatory carniverous fish, and fish which eventually get as much as four feet long and can cause a menace to local flora and fauna if accidentally released (as they increasingly often are).

Wal-mart has run many small pet stores out of town in many areas, and when you buy from them, you are usually getting critters which are diseased and damaged in various ways, and almost always dealing with people who don't have the faintest clue about the often complex care requirements for the animals they are selling, and who are blissfully ignorant of the potential problems posed by certain species as I mentioned above.

The future of RPG's could easily be one of buying either online or at places like this where at the very least, the selection will be decided by an extremely conservative corporate policy (i.e. no more vile darkness or naked drow books, possibly ultimately a return to calling Demons "tanarri" or whatever) and the sales staff "wont know a d12 from Dee Snider"

So put that in your pipe and smoke it.

DB

 

[Arnwyn]

Once again, showing that people have to have things crammed down their throats before it even shows up as a blip on their radar.

Absolutely, and rightfully so, considering the market. Sounds like "glut" to me.

Edit: And, on a second thread perusal, it looks like DaveMage says it quite well. Good stuff, DaveMage!

If you are soooooo concerned about the dreaded "glut" you should root for the big business to go under. But no one wants that do they?

Whoa, sparky. Got some baggage you need to unload?

For me, I don't care who is culled or not culled - all I want is for the LGSs and distributors to better cater to me so I can actually see and look through what's available and buy it from my nearby store. I don't care if anybody goes out of business or not - the market will adjust itself regardless of any "rooting".

Just say what you mean then: if you're happy to see people fail at something you're afraid to try, Id at least RESPECT that.

I'd RESPECT a statement that actually makes sense.

 

[WizarDru]

And frankly, with the current trend in the nations economy and the RPG industry, Wal-Mart could easily become THE FLGS for many or even most people. In that case they WOULD become the arbiter of the content to a large degree simply because they control the majority of the market, just as they do with music and literature on sale there now.

Actually, I would expect Amazon, B&N and Petsmart to dictate those issues, not Walmart. Frankly, they don't cater very well to any market after a certain dollar amount. Best Buy, Circuit City and Fry's are more likely to beat the snot out of the mom and pops than Walmart in electronics, for example. Walmart demands modified material or they won't carry it....unless it sells well. Walmart is legendary for saying they won't carry an item, and then quietly adding it a month or two later, when it's clear that it's a best seller. They respond to the market as much as anyone else. I really don't like them and never shop there, but don't begrudge them the chance. Do I wish they were more like Cabella's? Sure. But blind loyalty to a small store just because they're a small store isn't smart. If they provide a good service, reasonable prices and a good atmosphere...I'll go there. But if they don't provide something that amazon.com doesn't (and many local game stores I've been to don't know a d12 from Dee Snider), then I'm not going to give them my hard-earned dollars just on principle.

The differences between Walmart and the publishing industry in general and the d20 publishing market in specific are so diverse as to be staggering, IMHO.

And for the record, smoking is bad for you.

 

[Vigilance]

Whoa, sparky. Got some baggage you need to unload?

For me, I don't care who is culled or not culled - all I want is for the LGSs and distributors to better cater to me so I can actually see and look through what's available and buy it from my nearby store. I don't care if anybody goes out of business or not - the market will adjust itself regardless of any "rooting".

No "baggage". Just sick of all the market's problems being heaped on the smallest players in that market.

If you read the first few posts in this thread, you'll see an announcement that many small companies went under, followed by a sentiment, seconded by many people to the effect of "good- this glut has been bad for the market".

Well in the first place, in what other industry is glut bad?

Who says "Wow look at all these cars! I already have a car, do I really need more cars? They just keep making them every year. And what's with all the copying going on? Ford makes SUVs, why does Chrysler have to make them too?"

And in the second place, even assuming the "glut" is bad, which I don't, but assuming I did, seems like you'd want the BIGGEST contributors to glut to go away.

If you add up the products of all the publishers mentioned in the original post its probably about 1/4 of what Mongoose makes. (Note: I AM NOT Bashing Mongoose. I happen to OWN and LIKE Mongoose books- and I dont think "glut" is a real problem for this or almost any marketplace).

Merely pointing out that if you hate glut, the companies mentioned in the original thread aren't the place to go looking for it.


Chuck