Decline of RPG sales

[Belen]

Fans could have rejected it in droves. The heated debate here and at Wizard's boards certainly didn't paint the impression that Eberron was a safe, sure thing.

Rabid fanboys on the internet do not equate with overall audience. The fact that WOTC produced the setting alone would generate a high number of sales. It was not that risky a move.

Also, Wizards is really pushing Eberron. The Delegate program is only allowed to demo and support Eberron, the Worldwide gameday adventure was Eberron (no choice this year), and they have really cut down on the number of FR releases.

The fact that they never updated the core FR book to 3.5 means that they are already planning the coffin for that setting. 3.0 FR setting books are not selling. Not one store in my area bothers to stock them anymore.

Eberron wasn't risky. It had the benefit of being a new setting from WOTC. They would get sales based on that alone.

 

[Belen]

Which elements of Eberron are from 'Anime' or 'Final Fantasy', specifically?

Lightning rails, airships, technomages, robots, mutants, crystals, trantor/coruscant(sp?), and the artwork has a serious cartoon/anime feel in the Eberron products.

None of this stuff is especially bad, but it is not hard to see where things were influenced.

 

[Lonely Tylenol]

Lightning rails, airships, technomages, robots, mutants, crystals, trantor/coruscant(sp?), and the artwork has a serious cartoon/anime feel in the Eberron products.

None of this stuff is especially bad, but it is not hard to see where things were influenced.

Actually, the artwork looks more like Hellboy than anime, IMO. And I've seen a lot of anime.

 

[JoeGKushner]

Actually, the artwork looks more like Hellboy than anime, IMO. And I've seen a lot of anime.

The Magic of Eberron moves a bit away from that pulpy feel into high fantasy again I thought. But do agree with the Hellboy bit.

 

[Storm Raven]

Rabid fanboys on the internet do not equate with overall audience. The fact that WOTC produced the setting alone would generate a high number of sales. It was not that risky a move.

[snip]

Eberron wasn't risky. It had the benefit of being a new setting from WOTC. They would get sales based on that alone.

So, WotC is criticized for not producing any risky products, and many would apparently like WotC to take risks and innovate. However, the fact that WotC produces a product means, appearently by definition, that the product is not risky. Am I the only one who sees the problem in the train of logic?

 

[Lonely Tylenol]

Wow…should I actually answer that question? OK – fine you asked – if someone sells the most of something does that not then mean that the marketplace deems it the best? Hint – It does.

It doesn't.

It could be the cheapest. It could be the most visible due to advertising or other factors. It could be that volume production gets it into more stores than superior products. It could be regionally popular in an area with a large population that isn't representative of the population on a whole. It could simply be more convenient to buy. It could be more convenient to buy right now. It could be you never heard of superior products. It could be that there is status attached to the product that has nothing to do with quality. It could be that buying the product makes you feel popular or attractive. It could be that it's what you've always bought and you don't want to change your habits. It could be that you ran into a good salesman.

There are many reasons why people buy products that have nothing to do with the quality of the products. If people were concerned with only buying the best product, marketing would look completely different than it does and we'd all have toasters that worked after a year and cars that didn't break down until 500,000 km.

 

[Warbringer]

Note: in economics best does not equate to the most quality, but to the rational decision that yields the most optimal returns; eg best selling.

Compare WOTC to Games Workshop, the dominant player in sci-fi and fantasy table top playing. Players continually complain about prices (4-5 price hikes in 3 years doubling the price of nearly everything); Players gripe about the rules; Players gripe about how the company continually favors key races (read as key products)...

For years people have claimed any company that has its act together could take the market. But companies have come and gone in their attempts to do so.

Is GW the best? Yes. Are they the best minis (No); best rules (No); best marketing (possibly though IK is well supported); best company to work with (hell No).

WoTC is in a similiar position of dominance, though it does have the best quality, if not the best content.

 

[JoeGKushner]

Note: in economics best does not equate to the most quality, but to the rational decision that yields the most optimal returns; eg best selling.

Compare WOTC to Games Workshop, the dominant player in sci-fi and fantasy table top playing. Players continually complain about prices (4-5 price hikes in 3 years doubling the price of nearly everything); Players gripe about the rules; Players gripe about how the company continually favors key races (read as key products)...

For years people have claimed any company that has its act together could take the market. But companies have come and gone in their attempts to do so.

Is GW the best? Yes. Are they the best minis (No); best rules (No); best marketing (possibly though IK is well supported); best company to work with (hell No).

WoTC is in a similiar position of dominance, though it does have the best quality, if not the best content.

I don't know about that. Privateer Press and Rakcham have both been eating away at the foundations of GW, especially after the LoTR Movies were out of the theaters. Add to this the random painted minis and they're not as unassailable as they once were.

 

[SBMC]

It doesn't.

It could be the cheapest. It could be the most visible due to advertising or other factors. It could be that volume production gets it into more stores than superior products. It could be regionally popular in an area with a large population that isn't representative of the population on a whole. It could simply be more convenient to buy. It could be more convenient to buy right now. It could be you never heard of superior products. It could be that there is status attached to the product that has nothing to do with quality. It could be that buying the product makes you feel popular or attractive. It could be that it's what you've always bought and you don't want to change your habits. It could be that you ran into a good salesman.

There are many reasons why people buy products that have nothing to do with the quality of the products. If people were concerned with only buying the best product, marketing would look completely different than it does and we'd all have toasters that worked after a year and cars that didn't break down until 500,000 km.

Sorry - you are incorrect - beyond incorrect. When one makes the statement I did then that incorporates all that you have outlined. It does not matter how it occurred – the fact of the matter it did occur.

The details you outline are symptoms and consequences of the product becoming the “best in the market”. Sales/revenue/net income defines the best; defining the best does not come from how it got there in economic or business terms but only the fact that it did.

Want an example? Apple was far better quality then Microsoft; but Microsoft won that war and became the “best”; the highest seller with the most customers. Apple started out way ahead; and still failed.

Want another example? Japanese Cars; because of the exchange rate and labor advantages Japan could produce superior cars at an equal or lower price than the U.S. could. Because the Japanese companies essentially owned their workers (provided housing, food, schooling etc.) and the government would intentionally induce inflation into their own economy alongside core price controls (and still do it) to keep that exchange rate as high as possible does that mean that the Japanese cars are not “the best”? Based upon how they got there? In the early days to make a Japanese car the way the did in Japan would cost double (just the cost mind you not retail price) the price of a U.S. car. Technically in ethical terms - the Japanese had an unfair advantage.

The market decides it all; everything else is aside. If you want to dig down and do comparisons that is fine; sales = best = the market says so; every economist since Adam Smith says so; economists and business folks (of which I am both) are trained in this way and always have been for decades and always will be – why – because it holds true.

You can argue the morality and environmental causes all day long; but at the end of the day the market decides who is the best which is defined by sales.

Now as I had stated before; once a monopoly condition (or close to it) occurs (such as Microsoft today) things are far different as the laws and theories of economics are then skewed. However the RPG industry is far from this; excessively far.

 

[SBMC]

Actually, he has never stated that his opinion was fact. He has maintained that his statements are generated through his own personal tastes. So you are attacking him because you do not like his opinion. Let's not fall for any other illusion on that score.

I am not the only one who stated that nor the first – I suggest you read all 5 pages of posts.

“Let's not fall for any other illusion on that score.”: Interesting choice of words – as if you are the final word in the universe that decides what is being said and how.

Here is the core of Shaman's argument: In many industries, the giant can be puttering along making the same type of material, then get hosed one day because someone made it better. Someone can make a better screwdriver one day and people will begin buying it because this particular screwdriver has the extra long snout that makes it easier to use than any other screwdriver made. Suddenly, dewalt or black and decker have real comptetion because they did not try to innovate to make that screwdriver better. In many cases, they have learned their lesson by now because they have a lot of equal competitors. They have to innovate.

No that was not his core – that was others core not his.

WOTC is different. They have no competitor. The small size of the hobby and there level of market dominance keeps them from having to effectively compete. No one can invent a better wheel in the hobby because no one can ever get access to all the channels needed to sell the product and no one can get the amount of free advertizing that TSR managed to develop back in the 80s.

Everyone can get access to the channels; the internet has assured that. The fact that so many folks here talk about buying other company’s products could be said to confirm that. Monte Cook is doing well, as is Green Ronin. However as well as they could? Marketing choices is part of what makes someone or something the best. It happens in the software industry all the time; an innovator shoots to the top.

What the issue is - is time like ANY industry the guy that has been there the longest will dominate and it takes time to develop ones own market – unless of course the big player keeps turning out a better and better product (real or perceived). D20 has not been out long enough for anyone to start making general statements regarding long term market trends.

Now, if Mattel decided to buy Green Ronin, then WOTC would have a serious problem. However, I doubt that will happen.

You are correct in that – then Green Ronin would have the finances to grow more quickly. If Monte Cook suddenly got a big investor of any kind so would he. But there is a reason that WoTC bought TSR and why Hasbro bought WoTC – and why Mattel has not bought any of these other competitors (of which Monte Cook’s company would be the most appealing given the name of MC).

However, it is a possibility that a company can churn out consistantly good products that are a little bland, yet sell well. It is equally possible that a continuous lack of innovation combined with a stagnate or negative growth in the consumer base could create an even larger exodus of the base and push them towards other mediums for enjoyment.

True; if you think things are bland. Sales at WoTC and a couple of other companies says folks don’t.

I am not saying that this is happening, but it could happen, and could be one way to describe the current marketplace situation.

But it seems not to be the current situation