ScorpiusRisk
First Post
Hi All.
I'm having a little trouble with calculating probability. Math hasn't been my best subject since elementary school.
My dnd group, still uses the rule that if you roll a natural 1 on an attack, you have to roll that d20 again. If you roll another natural 1, then bad things happen, its a critical failure.
Now rolling two natural 1s in a roll is a 5% probability. Because 1/20 is 5%. However if the second die roll is dependent on the first then its only 2.5% right? .05 time .05.
Now, if this happens (in our game) you roll a d6 to determine the outcome. Now I always loose the d6 list of possibilities because it doesn't happen all the time. I keep forgetting to make a digital copy.
Last time my list was:
1. Break Weapon
2. Drop Weapon
3. Throw Weapon
4. Hit Self
5. Magical Mishap
6. Nothing
Magical Mishap was something new I came up with, mainly because I couldn't remember what the 6th option was and wanted to keep moving (I later remembered it was fall prone). in 3.x we used Paizo's critical hit deck, and the magical options were the main inspiration for the idea.
My players reacted really positively to that idea. Now I'm coming up with a list of possible magical mishaps, (and plan to balance it with a list of possible positive magical occurrences later on).
What are the odds of rolling 1/20, then 1/20/ then 1/6 if each is dependent on the roll before it? I came up with .0415% but that seems to low.
How about, 1/20, 1/20, 1/6 and 1/100?
In case you are curious, my new (and recorded) list for crit failures is:
1. Fall Prone
2. Drop Weapon
3. Throw Weapon
4. Hit Self
5. Break Weapon (if mundane) or Magical Mishap (if magical)
6. Nothing
I'm having a little trouble with calculating probability. Math hasn't been my best subject since elementary school.
My dnd group, still uses the rule that if you roll a natural 1 on an attack, you have to roll that d20 again. If you roll another natural 1, then bad things happen, its a critical failure.
Now rolling two natural 1s in a roll is a 5% probability. Because 1/20 is 5%. However if the second die roll is dependent on the first then its only 2.5% right? .05 time .05.
Now, if this happens (in our game) you roll a d6 to determine the outcome. Now I always loose the d6 list of possibilities because it doesn't happen all the time. I keep forgetting to make a digital copy.
Last time my list was:
1. Break Weapon
2. Drop Weapon
3. Throw Weapon
4. Hit Self
5. Magical Mishap
6. Nothing
Magical Mishap was something new I came up with, mainly because I couldn't remember what the 6th option was and wanted to keep moving (I later remembered it was fall prone). in 3.x we used Paizo's critical hit deck, and the magical options were the main inspiration for the idea.
My players reacted really positively to that idea. Now I'm coming up with a list of possible magical mishaps, (and plan to balance it with a list of possible positive magical occurrences later on).
What are the odds of rolling 1/20, then 1/20/ then 1/6 if each is dependent on the roll before it? I came up with .0415% but that seems to low.
How about, 1/20, 1/20, 1/6 and 1/100?
In case you are curious, my new (and recorded) list for crit failures is:
1. Fall Prone
2. Drop Weapon
3. Throw Weapon
4. Hit Self
5. Break Weapon (if mundane) or Magical Mishap (if magical)
6. Nothing
