mamba
Legend
that works with evolution, but not with a design that has maintaining compatibility as its goal.Remember the evolution analogy. The key with incremental changes is not that they can’t lead to a large departure in the end, but that you never have so many of them at once that there’s a clean break.
To me the OP’s question is, could BX (or 1e) have survived, basically unaltered, until this day.
If your question is whether we make essentially the same changes either with editions every 10 years, with slightly altered rulebooks every other year (same changes over 10 years, but in increments), or over a much longer timeframe, then that is a very different question.
just like AD&D, this is not exactly new, but it does break compatibility somewhatRace/class split? Both Labyrinth Lord and OSE already did this in their “advanced” rules, without changing the underlying BX chassis.
definitely breaks compatibilityRemoving level limits and unified XP progression? I feel like there’s at least one retro-clone that does that already.
As I said, the question was not could BX have gradually evolved into that, but could it have stayed basically the same and still get to 5e market share and player numbers today. To me the answer is ‘no’