Does D&D Next need to be a success for D&D to be a success?

[silverblade56]

Mearls had his hand in 4E certainly, but he wasn't driving the van, so to speak. Most of the people responsible for the direction and marketing of 4E are no longer at WotC.

If Next fails, I'd still partly blame the 4E drivers for losing all the D&D players that 4E cost them.

Still, even though I won't be buying, I think Next will be an initial success because the WotC marketing machine is a powerful thing.

I don't think that WotC's marketing is a powerful thing, at least not as far as D&D is concerned (maybe for Magic, but that is another topic). Their "marketing" of 4E probably did more damage than good to sales. Now, D&D the brand is something different. That is powerful, at least to current or lapsed D&D players. I'm not too fond of WotC anymore, and I would be failry likely to buy the most current official edition of D&D at least to try it out.

 

[NewJeffCT]

Hate to break it to you, but D&D was far more popular and common in popular culture around30 years ago.

I'd say it's been more in the un-popular culture (or, in other words, stereotyped badly as a game which only a certain type of person whom popular culture would not like to associate with) over the past twenty years.

It's been well known as a brand since the outbreak of it's plethora related fad in the early to mid 80s. That's why Hasbro may want to have movie rights (GI Joe, Transformers, and those types of nostalgia movies anyone?...of course on the other side is Battleship based on a game...and a few of the 80s nostalgia movies that did terribly).

But as for being POPULAR...it's biggest stint in that was over 30 years ago.

Really? So, having D&D be commonplace on hit TV shows like The Big Bang Theory was around 30 years ago? Or, mentioned in cultural bellwethers like the Colbert Report and the Daily Show? Heck, the show Community had a whole episode designed around a D&D session a few years ago. Having the fantasy genre explode in popularity over the past 10-15 years due to movies like the three Lord of the Rings movies, Harry Potter books and movies, the crappy Twilight saga, Game of Thrones and True Blood on HBO, the Walking Dead, etc was common 30 years ago?

I grew up with D&D and started playing it in the late 70s. The only mentions of D&D in the "mainstream" media in the 80s was when various religious groups tried to ban D&D for some imaginary satanic influence, or when some loner regrettably committed suicide and it was found they played D&D. Most of the 1990s were even drier in terms of mentions, as at least the religious groups banning D&D didn't create the media outburst anymore. It really wasn't until the late 90s with Harry Potter and the announcement they were making the Lord of the Rings movies that the fantasy genre took off as a mainstream phenomenon.

 

[delericho]

Interesting question...and as some have mentioned already, it depends on which "D&D" you are asking about.

Does 5e have to be a success for "D&D the Brand" [tm] to be a success?

No. The books, comics, [alleged] movie, boardgames, card games, video games, iPhone games <rolls eyes>, will carry on and undoubtedly make Hasbro more money than they know what to do with.

Does 5e have to be a success for "D&D the TTRPG" [tm] to be a success?

Yes. From all indications I can tell, it seems so. If 5e is poorly received or doesn't meet whatever quotas are espoused, the plug will be pulled.

This. With the added comment that I really don't care about D&D boardgames, or video games, or movies, or... For me, if 5e fails and takes the TTRPG with it, then D&D as a whole has failed. YMMV, of course.

 

[N'raac]

I didn't want to say it, but that would also be my believe. But still, Mearls would get his name attached to it which will certainly not help with the job hunt afterwards.
"Shoot the messenger" (or "blame the guy who touched it last").

As for movies, I have no idea why Hasbro is after the rights so much. The previous movies weren't really stellar, giving the D&D brand a rather negative image among movie goers, and the market for fantasy movies doesn't seem to good either. Even the interest in Hobbit seems to wane and D&D can never match them.

How great, popular and successful were super hero movies before the Iron Man/Avengers franchise? I look back on my own childhood, and remember the Hulk TV show and the Superman movies. Anything else was a Saturday morning cartoon or an old rerun (Adam West Batman, anyone?). LoTR did well, Harry Potter brought fantasy front and centre in the mainstream. What was the big Fantasy breakout hit before those? Hell, no one thought space opera and laser guns could make any money back in 1975...then someone made a movie that captured audience imaginations.

I think both Hasbro and WoTC, as "the big boys", are not happy with their market placement. Regardless of sales, if D&D Next fails to solidly recapture the "best selling RPG" title, I think that may well spell a shelving (or continued sales, but limited or no new development) for D&D as an RPG. Hasbro bought the first and best-selling RPG. Now their Coke has become Pepsi.

Is this new? Not really. The Star Wars CCG was a top seller for Decipher, sometimes actually outselling Magic...then the license went to WoTC (ironically), and the new CCG tanked. The old one still has an active "Players' Committee", more formal than any structure I'm aware of for old D&D editions. The WoTC game? released 2002; hiatus in 2005.

 

[darjr]

I'm sure there are players who started because they saw it played in ET.

If wotc continues to make and sell d&d product after next tanks, if it tanks, could d&d still be called somewhat succesfull? What if some of those products are big hits like lords of water deep or a big hit movie?


Note: I don't know how well next will do, personally I think it will do fine and be at least a moderate success.

 

[GreyLord]

Really? So, having D&D be commonplace on hit TV shows like The Big Bang Theory was around 30 years ago? Or, mentioned in cultural bellwethers like the Colbert Report and the Daily Show? Heck, the show Community had a whole episode designed around a D&D session a few years ago. Having the fantasy genre explode in popularity over the past 10-15 years due to movies like the three Lord of the Rings movies, Harry Potter books and movies, the crappy Twilight saga, Game of Thrones and True Blood on HBO, the Walking Dead, etc was common 30 years ago?

I grew up with D&D and started playing it in the late 70s. The only mentions of D&D in the "mainstream" media in the 80s was when various religious groups tried to ban D&D for some imaginary satanic influence, or when some loner regrettably committed suicide and it was found they played D&D. Most of the 1990s were even drier in terms of mentions, as at least the religious groups banning D&D didn't create the media outburst anymore. It really wasn't until the late 90s with Harry Potter and the announcement they were making the Lord of the Rings movies that the fantasy genre took off as a mainstream phenomenon.

Actually...yes.

Not only was there a cartoon called...wait for it...wait for it....wait for it...

Dungeons and Dragons (gasp...yes, Gygax had a cartoon and it showed on mainstream TV under that Name...like Whoa...did I just blow your mind)....

But it was also found in movies. One of the biggest movies of the early 80s...something you may not have heard about as you may be too young to have heard about it at that time...was called....

wait for it...wait for it....wait for it...

ET...

Yeah, I know...you never heard of it...but that's okay. You probably haven't heard of all the other movies that had people actually playing D&D (not the stereotyped nerds like you see in Big Bang theory either)...but a whole slew of fantasy movies that were basically D&D inspired or based back at that time. Unlike today...where it's more based on other fantasy themes...over half of those fantasy movies (if not almost 100% of them) for a few years WERE basically someone's homebrewed D&D campaign.

I do understand with your young age how it's almost impossible for you to imagine a society where D&D wasn't just prevalent, but had widespread acceptance with it being sold in Department stores, Sears, Toy's R US, the degradable K-mart (Walmarts weren't really a thing back then), and actually played by the high school sports teams, toys found in all the major stores...etc....etc...etc.

For a short while (and I mean short) D&D WAS the thing. It was the fad of the moment, just as big as other fads (like, more to your time period...Pokémon was around a little more than a decade ago). It was everywhere and it wasn't stereotyped like it is today (well, at first, then it got stereotyped as the Devil's game...but that's a lot different type of stereotype than the nerd's game...as for some...just the fact that their mother's would burn the books to prevent their child from going to Hell was reason enough to play).

 

[Warbringer]

D&D as a brand name has been around from the 1970s and has only become common in popular culture over the last 10-15 years.

While the internet makes the dissemination of information a lot faster than it was 30-40 years ago, it will still take a long time for Paizo to get up the cultural name recognition that D&D has had. (I'm not talking about current sales - just if you ask the average person on the street, I'm guessing that D&D is far better known than Pathfinder, and it will take a long time for Paizo to get up to that level of name recognition.)

So, Paizo will never get to that level of brand recognition, mostly because they are a brand imitator rather than a true innovator, in the category sense. (Note we're not talking Paizo vs TSR vs WoTC ... Most people not in the hobby probably haven't a clue who any of he companies are...Pathfinder is too generic, and I'd guess most people think Nissan first)

There is a golden age ahead for D&D if they think about re-engaging all the lost players of the last 20 years, and I mean those that completely left the hobby.

It's strange to think that given Marvel sold to Disney for 8bn that just 15 years earlier it was bankrupt. It didnt increase in value because it printed a magnitude higher number of comics, but rather because it changed the medium with which people interacted with their favorite iconic heroes and brought hire friends and family along from the ride.

 

[NewJeffCT]

Actually...yes.

Not only was there a cartoon called...wait for it...wait for it....wait for it...

Dungeons and Dragons (gasp...yes, Gygax had a cartoon and it showed on mainstream TV under that Name...like Whoa...did I just blow your mind)....

But it was also found in movies. One of the biggest movies of the early 80s...something you may not have heard about as you may be too young to have heard about it at that time...was called....

wait for it...wait for it....wait for it...

ET...

Yeah, I know...you never heard of it...but that's okay. You probably haven't heard of all the other movies that had people actually playing D&D (not the stereotyped nerds like you see in Big Bang theory either)...but a whole slew of fantasy movies that were basically D&D inspired or based back at that time. Unlike today...where it's more based on other fantasy themes...over half of those fantasy movies (if not almost 100% of them) for a few years WERE basically someone's homebrewed D&D campaign.

I do understand with your young age how it's almost impossible for you to imagine a society where D&D wasn't just prevalent, but had widespread acceptance with it being sold in Department stores, Sears, Toy's R US, the degradable K-mart (Walmarts weren't really a thing back then), and actually played by the high school sports teams, toys found in all the major stores...etc....etc...etc.

For a short while (and I mean short) D&D WAS the thing. It was the fad of the moment, just as big as other fads (like, more to your time period...Pokémon was around a little more than a decade ago). It was everywhere and it wasn't stereotyped like it is today (well, at first, then it got stereotyped as the Devil's game...but that's a lot different type of stereotype than the nerd's game...as for some...just the fact that their mother's would burn the books to prevent their child from going to Hell was reason enough to play).

Most people I knew at the time (high school & college students) thought of ET as a kiddie movie and didn't see it because of that. And, that was one movie from the 70s through the late 90s that you cited, whereas I cited Big Bang Theory that has featured D&D probably a good dozen times or more, as well as an entire D&D episode on Community, and numerous mentions over the years on both Colbert and The Daily Show. Heck, a few years ago, my daughter was watching Wizards of Waverly Place and they featured a D&D game in one episode, too. Not to mention the very last episode of Buffy starting off with a D&D game. Since the late 90s, you've had the 3 Lord of the Rings movies, a Hobbit movie, 8 Harry Potter movies, I'm not sure how many Twilight movies, The Hunger Games, Game of Thrones, True Blood, The Walking Dead, Once Upon a Time, Lost, Grimm, Heroes, etc. All part of the fantasy genre and expanding awareness of the genre as a whole. Heck, the only fantasy on network TV in the 80s and into the 90s until Buffy came along was the D&D cartoon. (Hercules and Xena were syndicated shows that also came along in the mid to late 90s.) And again, it was a Saturday morning cartoon so was relegated to mostly kids watching it and therefore not part of the mainstream culture like it is now.

Also, I have been an avid collector of anything D&D related from the 70s until now. I have never once seen anything related to D&D in any department store (KMart, Sears, etc) or toy store (Toys R Us, Kaybee Toys, Child World, etc). Not saying it didn't happen elsewhere, but maybe distribution never reached New England/the Northeast? Heck, I would have done backflips if I ever did see D&D material in one of those stores because I could bike to the local KMart when I was a kid it was so close. The D&D stuff I found was always either in bookstores, comic book stores or hobby stores in the 70s, 80s and into the 90s.

 

[NewJeffCT]

So, Paizo will never get to that level of brand recognition, mostly because they are a brand imitator rather than a true innovator, in the category sense. (Note we're not talking Paizo vs TSR vs WoTC ... Most people not in the hobby probably haven't a clue who any of he companies are...Pathfinder is too generic, and I'd guess most people think Nissan first)

There is a golden age ahead for D&D if they think about re-engaging all the lost players of the last 20 years, and I mean those that completely left the hobby.

It's strange to think that given Marvel sold to Disney for 8bn that just 15 years earlier it was bankrupt. It didnt increase in value because it printed a magnitude higher number of comics, but rather because it changed the medium with which people interacted with their favorite iconic heroes and brought hire friends and family along from the ride.

I think it's possible that Paizo gets to have great name recognition, (I hope they do!) but I don't think it will happen over night, or even in five-seven years. The kids that grew up playing D&D in the 70s through the 90s, but have since left the hobby might not even know about Paizo if they haven't followed the hobby at all since the late 90s. Somebody that played the game 25 years ago might see a news article online about "New version of D&D comes out today" and will think to themselves, "Oh, I played that for a few years in college, let me read it." But, if they see "Paizo releases Pathfinder 2.0 today" they might not even give it a second thought, not knowing the game or the name at all.

 

[Warbringer]

I think it's possible that Paizo gets to have great name recognition, (I hope they do!) but I don't think it will happen over night, or even in five-seven years. The kids that grew up playing D&D in the 70s through the 90s, but have since left the hobby might not even know about Paizo if they haven't followed the hobby at all since the late 90s. Somebody that played the game 25 years ago might see a news article online about "New version of D&D comes out today" and will think to themselves, "Oh, I played that for a few years in college, let me read it." But, if they see "Paizo releases Pathfinder 2.0 today" they might not even give it a second thought, not knowing the game or the name at all.

I don't. Not because hey are not a great company, they are, but because D&D is an icon in the category (its the Model T). Most people who casually played probably don't know who TSR and WoTC are, and that's the true point o comparison.

Now, if Paizo can get its hand on the brand