Good feedback!
The issue with calculating Eldritch Disturbance is that it does full damage on a failed save, half damage on a success. Thus, damage is guaranteed every single turn, but the amount of damage isn't consistent, and the odds are an even 50/50 (at which point I'd just average full and half damage and call it a day). So, after some huming and hahing, I represented it as a 90% change to hit and then added a lot of disclaimers that I felt I was being very generous. If the actual damage potential of Eldritch Disturbance is much lower I would not be surprised in the least.