'Dungeons & Dragons' fights for its future

[AllisterH]

Look at the newest report from icv2.

It really doesn't look good. 4th edition may be the last (because if it's good, many people won't buy the 5th ed. stuff; a lot will play 3.5 still). The rpg industry is a tiny piece of the hobby market cake (15-17 million $ a year). Compare it to CCG and miniatures - 600 million and 150 respectively. If I was a Hasbro CEO I would say "concentrate on CCG market and miniatures". To sum it up, if DDI is a success, we can smile, if it doesn't... it can really be the end. The costs of producing a D&D book (with plenty of art) are higher than the costs of cards or miniatures. It takes also quite a lot of time to write the fluff, test the rules (if they are tested )etc.

I'm switching to 4th ed., but I will probably buy only the corebooks and a setting. I know a lot folks who will do the same.

How much of both markets do you think WOTC owns? Even though there is Yugi-Oh and (still) Pokemon, I wouldn't be surprised if M:TG owned at least HALF of that market (and that's just the US market. In the Far East, it seems like M:TG is a license to print money. No two ways about it, M:TG has to be at least half a billion revenue generator....) .

Similarly, the DDM is probably much less (maybe 10% of the market given the existence of Warhammer) but WOTC also owns Heroscape ( a very popular seller so I've heard and Axis & Allies which probably gives them a larger share of the market.

Seriously, does Hasbro even KNOW that D&D is a RPG? Would they even CARE given the sales of WOTC's other market To WOTC, the RPG has to be pocketchange....that's kind of sad to think about...

 

[med stud]

Look at the newest report from icv2.

It really doesn't look good. 4th edition may be the last (because if it's good, many people won't buy the 5th ed. stuff; a lot will play 3.5 still). The rpg industry is a tiny piece of the hobby market cake (15-17 million $ a year). Compare it to CCG and miniatures - 600 million and 150 respectively. If I was a Hasbro CEO I would say "concentrate on CCG market and miniatures". To sum it up, if DDI is a success, we can smile, if it doesn't... it can really be the end. The costs of producing a D&D book (with plenty of art) are higher than the costs of cards or miniatures. It takes also quite a lot of time to write the fluff, test the rules (if they are tested )etc.

I'm switching to 4th ed., but I will probably buy only the corebooks and a setting. I know a lot folks who will do the same.

There are two main things that I believe will keep D&D alive:

1) As long as D&D is making a profit, no matter how small, Hasbro has no reason to axe it. Hasbro most likely has small board games that added together brings in quite a profit. D&D would be the same.

2) The brand D&D is so well recognized that I think Hasbro even would tolerate a financial loss, just to keep the trademark. Many computer games are based on D&D and it is a name that exists in public awareness. Many fashion houses work that way. They have haut tocoure clothing that goes for 15000-20000$ per dress. Those dresses don't bring in any profit but they bring PR for the makers.

Even if computer games and miniatures bring in much more profit than the PnP- game, the PnP- game is needed to give the derivatives their cred.

All in all, I don't think Hasbro is dreaming about putting D&D down.

 

[med stud]

Seriously, does Hasbro even KNOW that D&D is a RPG? Would they even CARE given the sales of WOTC's other market To WOTC, the RPG has to be pocketchange....that's kind of sad to think about...

It's sort of sad, on the other hand I feel very reassured that the logistics and economics of the game are handled by professionals. The development process of 4e looks like a good mix of designers who love the game and economic- people who take pride in their part. Much better than much of the business, where good ideas executed by competent designers fall flat due to lack of understanding economics.

 

[Rykaar]

I read the article at MSNBC yesterday but didn't post about it because I didn't want to come off as bashing WotC or 4e. Let's just say right up front I'm in for the core books at least, so I'm at least an admirer of what I've seen so far, if not a fan.

This is the first I've heard of the DDI actual monthly fee, and all I can ask is simply: IS WOTC INSANE? There's no justification for that pricing, even if the technology actually works and doesn't fall flat on its face. I would actually like to go into detail discussing what a user can expect to receive for the same monthly fee as WoW, but I'm going to dodge that particular speeding train unless asked to step onto the track.

Instead I'm going to simply throw a word of caution to WotC: this isn't the electronic tools you packaged with 3.0. Expectations are much higher, and, if MSNBC is an indicator, public perception for 4e extends beyond the "geek" realm. This includes DDI, which the wider public--if it noticed at all--now sees as integral to 4e (rightly or wrongly). Hasbro won't tolerate a high profile failure, and pricing the DDI at a ridiculous rate is a good recipe for it if it doesn't deliver an amazing "value add" to the game. Truly at that point D&D will be fighting for its future against its own master.

I'll just throw out another thought in passing, and then I'm done grumbling: especially once I saw the $15 per month price tag, my immediate reaction was "Did they even bother to survey their market before pricing this Edsel exactly the same as WoW? Who the hell is going to pay that?"

D&D needs to play to its strengths, and those are offline. It simply won't be an online competitor to WoW. DDI should have been some free utilities or at most $5/mo.

 

[Brown Jenkin]

I'll just throw out another thought in passing, and then I'm done grumbling: especially once I saw the $15 per month price tag, my immediate reaction was "Did they even bother to survey their market before pricing this Edsel exactly the same as WoW? Who the hell is going to pay that?"

D&D needs to play to its strengths, and those are offline. It simply won't be an online competitor to WoW. DDI should have been some free utilities or at most $5/mo.

I'm not saying this is good or bad, but WotC is basing its pricing on DDI having both etools and the Dragon & Dungeon magazines. They feel that the magazine portion alone is worth probably $8-10 worth of the $15 price tag. Whether that is true or not, or how it should be priced is and has been discussed in plenty of other threads.

 

[GoodKingJayIII]

This is the first I've heard of the DDI actual monthly fee, and all I can ask is simply: IS WOTC INSANE? There's no justification for that pricing...

Well, that remains to be seen. If we're getting a virtual table, miniatures, a character generator, and a constant stream of exclusive content, then $10/month seems pretty reasonable to me.

But of course, you're right in that it's contingent on the product being stable, working properly, actually delivering what's been promised, etc. I'm expecting to see at least a few hiccoughs in the early stages, so I'll be waiting 3-6 months before I really explore the values of the system.

 

[GVDammerung]

The article seemed fine to me.

D&D is at a crossroads.

Will it live or die? Film at 11.

CHOO! CHOO! Its model train status for the live tabletop roleplaying hobby! It is and was inevitable. That's not necessarily a bad thing just a different thing. The 4e DDI is a logical way to try to split the difference between live tabletop and online games. If Wotc can implement it quickly and well, it might even work. I'm not going to bet on that but it is at least theoretically possible Wotc might not screw it up.

 

[Maggan]

I'll just throw out another thought in passing, and then I'm done grumbling: especially once I saw the $15 per month price tag, my immediate reaction was "Did they even bother to survey their market before pricing this Edsel exactly the same as WoW? Who the hell is going to pay that?"

I'm sure they did. I remember filling in a survey where they asked what I would pay for a service like DDI. So yes, I believe that they've surveyed the market.

/M

 

[Dragonblade]

I'll just throw out another thought in passing, and then I'm done grumbling: especially once I saw the $15 per month price tag, my immediate reaction was "Did they even bother to survey their market before pricing this Edsel exactly the same as WoW? Who the hell is going to pay that?"

$10 a month if you sign up for a year.

Anyway, I'll pay it. For the character generator, all the Dragon and Dungeon content, and access to a rules database that gives me all classes, feats, and rules for ALL published books whether I own them or not?

I consider that a fantastic deal.

 

[Klaus]

$10 a month if you sign up for a year.

Anyway, I'll pay it. For the character generator, all the Dragon and Dungeon content, and access to a rules database that gives me all classes, feats, and rules for ALL published books whether I own them or not?

I consider that a fantastic deal.

Ditto.

The Virtual Tabletop is actually the lesser part of the deal. The rulebook database alone is worth US$120 a year.