[Forked Thread: The 3.5 renaissance!] Three Years in the future - What will WotC do?

[Mercurius]

Forked from: The 3.5 renaissance!

I think the OGL will set 3.5 apart from the other versions.
Inevitable is a pretty big word, of course eventually something better will come along. Technology changes, if nothing else, will force that.
But the established pattern of games doesn't automatically mean that others will follow. A different variable means a different path, and the OGL is a huge variable...

...4E is a fundamentally different approach to the idea. Ultimately, I don't think it will play that big a role in 3E's demise. 3E is a decade on now. It was very clearly losing steam well before 4e was announced. Yeah, the new shiny drew the attention away from the old game and any old game is going to have trouble getting that back. But, the backlash on 4E seems to be revitalizing 3E if anything. It doesn't make it less inevitable that it will eventually go down. Of course it will. So will 4E. But I think 4E has actually delayed the inevitable, not spurred it on.

And, as an aside, 3E will outlast 4E. That isn't an edition war comment, just a simple observation. In a few years 5E will come along. And 4E will go in a box. The 3E/OGL community may be tiny at that point, but it will handle edition cycles far better than 4e.

I'm not convinced that 4E will do nearly as good a job at keeping the new blood. I think 4E will get fans, and a significant fraction will sooner rather than later move on. I'm also convinced that the numbers are larger than your guesses. We are less than a year in and 4e attrition is already showing.

Let's say it is 2-3 years into the future. 4e has been out for about three years and it isn't as popular as we, Wizards of the Coast, thought it would be. Not only is it not grabbing the World of Warcraft fan base like we hoped, but the fallout from GSL had a ebb-tide effect with many players returning to 3.5e (as we have seen). Furthermore, Pathfinder really took off and, while still a distant 2nd, is in the rearview mirror and closer than it originally appeared.

So what do we do? One of the biggest problems was the switch-over from OGL to GSL, which seemed to sacrifice market sustainability and growth potential for security of temporary dominance. And it may be that because D&D is, by and large, a graying hobby--with some new players, but the majority still being the 30+ crowd that grew up on it--the whole "video game vibe" of 4e that tried to attract "Digital Natives" (born after 1980 or so) did more harm than good by alienating the older "Digital Immigrants".

(Note: I'm trying to look at this from a socio-economic perspective, not as another iteration in the "Edition War"...so don't read too much into any of my comments as pro-this or pro-that).

So it is 2011 (or so) and we're looking at the long-range plan. A few options come to mind; do we:

1) Continue as is and eek every penny we can get out of 4e and gradually plan for a 5e in 2015-18.

2) As above, but speed up the process and focus on creating 5e as the grand consolidator, the Best Edition Ever that includes the greatest elements of previous editions, coming in 2013 or 2014.

3) Drop table-top RPGs altogether and embrace virtual technologies, selling D&D to someone who doesn't mind it not being as profitable as it once was and let them deal with it.

4) Another option?

 

[Umbran]

(Note: I'm trying to look at this from a socio-economic perspective, not as another iteration in the "Edition War"...so don't read too much into any of my comments as pro-this or pro-that).

Well, assuming your posits are accurate (I question their accuracy, but let's take them as grante dfor now), then actual socio-economics matter, and they are highly in flux right now. We don't know where the economy will be in three years, so it is difficult to say what would be the smart approach to take.

 

[Mercurius]

Well, assuming your posits are accurate (I question their accuracy, but let's take them as grante dfor now), then actual socio-economics matter, and they are highly in flux right now. We don't know where the economy will be in three years, so it is difficult to say what would be the smart approach to take.

They most certainly aren't accurate in that you can never really predict the future, but I'm talking more in terms of a hypothetical--a plausible future, if you will.

I'm also assuming some degree of stability--not necessarily the "binge mentality" of America during the 80s and 90s, but at least a sustainable, "moderate" capitalism. Not unlike how recently, many folks are still buying luxury items, but only what they really want and less of the splurge/impulse purchases. Meaning, hobbies like D&D should survive, because they are loved, and it is easier to feed a $20-100 monthly habit than it is to buy a new SUV or take a holiday in Barcelona.

In some sense my inquiry has more to do with the question of whether, if 4ed doesn't pick up, it is likely that WotC tries a new edition sooner than later or whether they'll jump ship altogether. It may be that in a more sustainable economy more modest profit margins will be acceptable.

 

[RandomCitizenX]

Looking at it from an economic stand point, I think it depends on how much revenue they end up generating through DDi. If DDi proves to be financially successful I could easily see more and more focus shifted in that direction. If 4e's sales would prove to be insufficient I would more likely see them gearing up for 5th while trying to get as much milage out of their 4e developement time as possible. This is of course assuming that people are not buying 4th ed etc...

 

[UngainlyTitan]

Looking at it from an economic stand point, I think it depends on how much revenue they end up generating through DDi. If DDi proves to be financially successful I could easily see more and more focus shifted in that direction. If 4e's sales would prove to be insufficient I would more likely see them gearing up for 5th while trying to get as much milage out of their 4e developement time as possible. This is of course assuming that people are not buying 4th ed etc...

This is a key thing that I suspect is often overlooked, I don't see how DDI can fail finiancially. Value for money it is to me, and I suspect to many that live outside the US better value that before. I now get Dragon and Dungeon plus the character generator and bonus tools for less that a subscription to Dragon on its own cost before.
The revenue stream is steady and predictable and once your software platforms are stable and mature then the maintainence costs will drop a lot.
I have seen claims that the RPG market is worth $25 - $30 million, so 50,000 subscribers to DDI is $3 millon or 10% of that market. Now I know I am pulling figure out of the air but consider that EN World has over 80,000 members I do not think that 50k DDI subscribers world wide is out of line.
Even half that is a pretty respectable revenue stream. Expecially that there are no printing and shipping overheads with DDI.

 

[ProfessorPain]

Forked from: The 3.5 renaissance!



Let's say it is 2-3 years into the future. 4e has been out for about three years and it isn't as popular as we, Wizards of the Coast, thought it would be. Not only is it not grabbing the World of Warcraft fan base like we hoped, but the fallout from GSL had a ebb-tide effect with many players returning to 3.5e (as we have seen). Furthermore, Pathfinder really took off and, while still a distant 2nd, is in the rearview mirror and closer than it originally appeared.

So what do we do? One of the biggest problems was the switch-over from OGL to GSL, which seemed to sacrifice market sustainability and growth potential for security of temporary dominance. And it may be that because D&D is, by and large, a graying hobby--with some new players, but the majority still being the 30+ crowd that grew up on it--the whole "video game vibe" of 4e that tried to attract "Digital Natives" (born after 1980 or so) did more harm than good by alienating the older "Digital Immigrants".

(Note: I'm trying to look at this from a socio-economic perspective, not as another iteration in the "Edition War"...so don't read too much into any of my comments as pro-this or pro-that).

So it is 2011 (or so) and we're looking at the long-range plan. A few options come to mind; do we:

1) Continue as is and eek every penny we can get out of 4e and gradually plan for a 5e in 2015-18.

2) As above, but speed up the process and focus on creating 5e as the grand consolidator, the Best Edition Ever that includes the greatest elements of previous editions, coming in 2013 or 2014.

3) Drop table-top RPGs altogether and embrace virtual technologies, selling D&D to someone who doesn't mind it not being as profitable as it once was and let them deal with it.

4) Another option?

Option 2 seems the best.

Other option:

1) Re-release 2E or 3E as Dungeons and Dragons "Classic" Hoping to get the grognards back.

 

[MichaelSomething]

I'm willing to say 3 will never happen. Even if D&D dies as an RPG, it's still a strong brand name. Books and video games with the D&D name on them should still sell well.

 

[Arkhandus]

Option 2 does seem the most likely for what they would do, though as was mentioned, DDi will be earning them some decent cashflow as long as 4e is still supported.

The options I think they'd be better off with, though, before developing and releasing 5e, would be to grab up some short-term gains at minor cost while trying to recapture what market share they've lost, and maybe continuing to draw in some of the younger crowd they've desperately wanted to snare with 4e.

By reviving the d20 STL and making another print run of the 3e core rulebooks, announcing a new and improved D&D 3rd edition, and putting out a new version of the core rules later that year with some things streamlined and just minor fixes, patcing the main gripes about 3e like high-level play, which Pathfinder doesn't look like it'll do much about. And including a few pieces of OGC from other sources (maybe even a bit of 3e WotC material that wasn't OGC before), trying to draw in more of the OGC crowd. Recapture the customers that left before, while maintaining support for 4e (since this 3e remake would require relatively little effort) until a better time for releasing 5e.

Or they might release a new Basic D&D of some kind, D&D Classic as was posited (though less likely a name for a republished 2e or 3e). Refine the rules somewhat and release a new, simple, streamlined D&D system that they can expand upon with supplements while trying to both recapture grognards and keeping those who liked whatever streamlining 4e did. Done well enough, it might draw in some folks who'd otherwise be playing WoW. Of course, you have to emphasize what D&D does better than WoW....

The likely cheapness of either may be enough to make D&D more profitable, even in the current economic situation.

 

[RandomCitizenX]

I really don't know if a D&D classic would be profitable to them in a print format. It is a niche market of an already niche market, and could be viewed as diluting the brand by competing with the current edition. It would be interesting, and to me more likely, to see them port in some older edition support through DDi or PDF releases since the cost to produce those is significantly less.

 

[Shemeska]

Looking at it from an economic stand point, I think it depends on how much revenue they end up generating through DDi.

Given the time and money they were willing to sink into first Gleemax and then the DDI, I think the success of the DDI (whatever form it ultimately takes versus the original promises) will really set the course for 4e as a whole. If it meets some internal expectation, whatever that might be, 4e will probably see a longer life. If the DDI crashes and burns a year or two from now, 4e might find itself in a difficult place if Hasbro is looking for cost cutting.