France Releases Classified UFO Files

[jaerdaph]

Facetious, but containing a point that clouds the issue.

The goal for the Manhattan Project was to produce a weapon that would end the war before the Axis did, yes. But the goal of traveling across the galaxy is (I submit) unlikely to be anal probes. Thus, while funny, this is quite a false comparison.

You're a lot of fun at parties, aren't you?

 

[BOZ]

But the goal of traveling across the galaxy is (I submit) unlikely to be anal probes.

fine, ruin my day.

 

[jaerdaph]

The only thing I can conclude is that our goal in WWII should have been to anal probe Nazis.

 

[GregH]

Um, that argues against your current position, you know. There are those among us that believe that doing precisely the same thing is what we should do - that we should hit the starways. Clearly, this is not inconsistent with our own motivations. So, why should we think they wouldn't feel the same way, perhaps even more strongly?

Well, actually, no it doesn't go against my position. My position is that if we go to the stars, I really don't see any way that we would engage in the activities that these aliens that are supposedly here now are being accused of. So if I can't see why we would do it, then how can I possibly see why they would do it. Now, maybe I'm wrong. But I don't see it happening.

And I am, for the record, among those who think we should go to the stars. But I can't in any way see myself oking the use of covert ops to do medical experiments on a sentient population.

An honest scientist will tell you that we cannot know. Not because they are "too alien", but simply because we have too little evidence. Anyone who claims to "know" either has information not available to the bulk of the human race, or is lying.

Exactly. I agree with you 100%. I want evidence. That's why I don't buy the whole UFO sctick. There is absolutely no evidence to not only support their existence, but their motivations.

No honest scientist really asks for you to believe it is true without some form of real evidence. We ask you to believe it is possible. Big difference, that.

And I believe I have said that it is possible. But I make a very clear distinction between what is "possible" and what is "probable". Is it possible that there are aliens hidinging amongst us, kidnapping humans, and performing unwanted colonoscopies? Sure, its "possible". Is it probable? Not even remotely. The laws of physics (as we understand them) make it improbable. Hell, they almost make it impossible, if you don't want to spend 100 generations on a ship bound for another solar system. Our lack of ability as a thinking, intelligent species to come up with a reasonable motive makes it improbable, in my opinion.

Too many people stop at "possible" and then continue on to "it must be true". They don't go on to "probable". This is why I haven't really argued your points. Everything you say is definitely possible. IMHO, very little of it is probable. And I think a lot of the physics backs me up.

By-the-by, I do actually consider myself one of those "honest scientists" - I have a Master's in near-Earth Space Physics. I'm not actually asking to believe. But I am being repeated asked through our modern media to believe by the UFO-ology community. Which is why I don't think the aliens are there. Everyone is saying "believe" but no one is showing evidence to allow me to conclude that they exist.

Greg

 

[Umbran]

And I believe I have said that it is possible. But I make a very clear distinction between what is "possible" and what is "probable". Is it possible that there are aliens hidinging amongst us, kidnapping humans, and performing unwanted colonoscopies? Sure, its "possible". Is it probable? Not even remotely. The laws of physics (as we understand them) make it improbable. Hell, they almost make it impossible, if you don't want to spend 100 generations on a ship bound for another solar system. Our lack of ability as a thinking, intelligent species to come up with a reasonable motive makes it improbable, in my opinion.

Perhaps we are getting into issues with pronouns - specifically "it".

I, personally, cannot come up with a reasonable motive for covert alien colonoscopies. If by "it" you mean all the wildest rantings of drunken pickup-truck drivers, I'll grant you that one.

But I personally can probably come up with a half-dozen reasonable motives for plying the stars to another system, and keeping ones presence hidden while exploring that system. If by "it" you mean general presence and quietly poking around, I won't grant you that we cannot come up with reasonable motives for the behavior.

And, honestly, the physics are not the major barrier. If I recall correctly, one can put together a ship with today's tech, that could make the trip to Alpha Centauri in 50 years or so. One only needs to stipulate extreme times if one also thinks there's only a few populated star systems in the Galaxy, so that the typical trip becomes much longer.

By-the-by, I do actually consider myself one of those "honest scientists" - I have a Master's in near-Earth Space Physics.

For the record, I've a physics masters as well, and I'm ABD PhD (mathematical and computational physics, applied to high-energy particle simulations).

 

[GregH]

Perhaps we are getting into issues with pronouns - specifically "it".

I, personally, cannot come up with a reasonable motive for covert alien colonoscopies. If by "it" you mean all the wildest rantings of drunken pickup-truck drivers, I'll grant you that one.

Unfortunately, it's those drunken pickup-truck drivers that get all the press.

But I personally can probably come up with a half-dozen reasonable motives for plying the stars to another system, and keeping ones presence hidden while exploring that system. If by "it" you mean general presence and quietly poking around, I won't grant you that we cannot come up with reasonable motives for the behavior.

Its not the "plying the stars... and keeping ones presence hidden" that bothers me. I can understand that (although I still think we will get to insterstellar space without worrying about inventing a cloaking device first). Its the "abducting people and cattle and doing odd, nonsensical medical experiments on them". I have watched my share of UFO "documentaries" in my day (it's one of my guilty pleasures) and the two are not mutually exclusive. The UFO community today insists that not only are UFOs visiting us, but they are conducting all manner of silliness. It goes hand-in-hand.

And, honestly, the physics are not the major barrier. If I recall correctly, one can put together a ship with today's tech, that could make the trip to Alpha Centauri in 50 years or so. One only needs to stipulate extreme times if one also thinks there's only a few populated star systems in the Galaxy, so that the typical trip becomes much longer.

But that much longer, becomes much, much, much longer if some of the possible solutions to the Drake equation are realistic. The galaxy is 100,000 light years wide. Alpha Centauri is 4 light years away. If it takes 50 years to get 4 light years, then it would take 1,250,000 years to cross the galaxy. Thats just not feasible for any "mortal" species. At the speed of light it would still take 100,000 years! And that's not even feasible with our current knowledge of physics. And some of the solutions to the Drake equation put the number of communicating, intelligent societies in the galaxy in the single digits, so there may be a need to travel very great distances in a very short period of time. Tell me that's doable, and I'll ask to see your blueprints.

For the record, I've a physics masters as well, and I'm ABD PhD (mathematical and computational physics, applied to high-energy particle simulations).

I guessed you had a science degree. Your knowledge of experimental astronomy was too good to just have a passing knowledge in it.

Greg

 

[LightPhoenix]

And some of the solutions to the Drake equation...

Ugh, the Drake Equation. I had to do a debate in high school for a science class, and the basis of the debate was the Drake Equation, and the teacher wouldn't let me argue that the Drake "Equation" is nothing more than a load of crap. Some of it is logical, but most of it is complete assumption, and not worth being called an equation. Hypothesis maybe, but equation no.

Sorry, old sore point. :\

On topic, I still can't get the site to come up. I can only assume that for some reason it's being blocked somewhere along the line.

 

[Pbartender]

Thats just not feasible for any "mortal" species.

Which is why you send an modestly "intelligent" automated probe... In the similar manner to what we've been using to explore our own solar system for the last 30 years.

Oh, now that gives me a great idea for a Sci-fi RPG scenario... UFOs and their associated alien are just highly advanced, artificially intelligent, independent probes. Unfortunately, somewhere along the very, very long trip out from the home planet, the basic mission programming developed a glitch. Now, the robotic probes (which look a lot like little grey bug-eyed men) have put an inexplicably high priority on silliness like aerobatics, formation flying, anal probing and cattle mutilations.

You also have to realize that biology of the alien likely factors into this as well. What's a life-long journey for us, might be nothing more than afternoon cruise for our alien visitors -- with regards to relative longevity or time perception or both. An alien might think nothing of simply waiting for a few decades or centuries, until his ship gets to where he wants it to go.

 

[Thunderfoot]

My take on all this is the following:
1 - as to how a being might hide in plain sight...
Movement to a place where we aren't is faily easy, as Umbran pointed out, wwe spend far too much time looking 'way' out there and not enough looking 'just' out there; as to the possibility of radio or other 'ray' emitting recievers picking them up? - Hey we have a bomber that has the radar signature of a parakeet, imagine what stealth would look like in space with all that background noise?

2 - As to the How...
This would be the big thing, according to physics (and since it is the Law of the Universe I will stand only on these principals) the Theory of Relativity states that faster than light travel is impossible for being of matter, if aliens are indeed gray skinned bug-eyed runts, then that means they have some form of matter and therefore cannot travel faster than light. So then we have to think of alternatives, such as the wormhole theory, meaning that the aliens have been traveling through folds in space by either using existing ones (the closest black hole is still some distance away if you believe that they are actually portals) or by slicing into space and time and creating them artificially. If this is possible the savings would be awesome, the science incredible and the test runs I'll leave to someone else...

3 - Why?
After 60 years of stealth like probes, anal research and sex with Elvis, Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin and Jim Morrison, you would think that first contact would be on the docket... but how about this, what if like our own world, there are several nations and each is competing to seek out allies in an intergalactic confrontation? Why assume that all little gray men are from the same one world community?

4 - My personal conclusions - Becuase it makes us feel better. If an alien culture can eventually overcome its differences and unite on a global scale to achieve interstellar travel and breaks the laws of physics in the process, then we should, theoretically, be able to do likewise. I hate to go 'Star Trek' on everyone but in the original series it was only AFTER the world united in one government that real space travel was achieved. A world economy focused on singular goals with nearly unlimited resources made that 'trek' possible.
Let's face it, who doesn't want a united world order where peace reigns supreme...oh yeah, a lot of people. I personally don't feel that there is any alien probing going on at least not on the scale that has been reported over the years. Were I an alien culture, I would be monitoring our radio, television and satellite communications from a hidden base waiting for progress to peace if I were a culture of that type or waiting for a conquering hero if that were my bent, either way, I wouldn't be continually sending in scout teams to take colonoscopy readings of the locals, unless of course I were havesting something in the bodies of those humans for my physiological advancement (yep - lab rats).
Applying human logic to a non-human problem is as good as we are going to get, and once an incident happens mass hysteria gives rise to other 'non-events' with similar circumstances giving more credence to the possibility. qv Salem Witch Trials. Even on a low key issue such as this, and in the scheme of things it is low key, being abducted is a way to be a 'celebrity' at least for a little while. I personally don't think there is another intelligent matter formed life force in the universe. I know, I know, but what about the "billions and billions of galaxies?" Frankly, Calr Sagan was a pompus arogant imbecile who thought he was smarter than he was. Yes there are infinite solar systems, but if the accidental creation theory is correct then the likelyhood of a similar event happening elsewhere are (pardon the pun) astronomical. And if the divine creation theory is espoused then it is even more likely that there is nothing else out there, as all things are purpose driven and therefore a chance meeting with another creation would be counter productive.

I'm sure there are tons of holes in my post - its late, I'm exhausted and the little grey man giving me an anal probe is not warming his instruments beforehand so I am, quite understandably, distracted.

 

[GregH]

You also have to realize that biology of the alien likely factors into this as well. What's a life-long journey for us, might be nothing more than afternoon cruise for our alien visitors -- with regards to relative longevity or time perception or both. An alien might think nothing of simply waiting for a few decades or centuries, until his ship gets to where he wants it to go.

True, but the problem is when you say "might". They might live for millenia, or they might live for an instant. (Fruit flies with interstellar flight anyone?)

We just don't know. The fact is, the longest living creature we know about lives a little over a 100 years. (And yes, I know that's "Earth" years.) So until we get some evidence that individual creatures can live longer than that, it's all pure speculation.

And that's basically why I have a problem with the whole UFO community. It's all "explained" through speculation.

Greg