WotC Hasbro Gaming Down 17% But D&D Remains 'Bright Spot'

ICv2 reports on Hasbro's latest quarterly report, noting that "Wizards of the Coast’s Magic: The Gathering and Dungeons & Dragons were two bright spots in Hasbro’s Q3, an otherwise tough quarter with sales and earnings both hit by actual and threatened tariffs on goods from China".

Other notes from ICv2:

• Hasbro Gaming, which does not include franchise brands Monopoly and Magic: The Gathering, was down 17%
• Total gaming sales, including Magic and Monopoly, were roughly flat, a big change from the 26% growth in Q2
• WotC has close to a dozen [digital] games in development for delivery over the next five to six years
• Hasbro believes that WotC sales can be doubled over the next five years, “…as we’ve accomplished over the past five years.”

 

[Rygar]

A lot of it will be D&D, but Magic is also as popular as it has ever been, bigger than Monopoly now, so probably mainly Magic.

Don't forget Avalon Hill, WotC has been doing some fun stuff with board games, too.

I'm pretty certain that the second part is not accurate. Available evidence indicates that what's happening with Magic the Gathering is a hidden crash or a bubble and that it's never been more unhealthy than it is today.

We had widespread reports of attrition just a few years ago, with some correlation in their financials. Then WOTC did what many companies do when they're facing a major collapse...they hid it.

How you do that is fairly simple. If you can't increase market size, or if your market size is shrinking, then there's only one way to make the numbers work such that shareholders don't realize that you've been making major mistakes...you increase the per customer spend for the remaining customer base such that you show growth. Which is exactly what WOTC did, they've been increasing the amount of product and going the route of micro-transactions on Arena to hide the fact that they're effectively crashing.

It's also why WOTC signed a deal with Amazon that shafted shops, because they know they've hit the point where shops are going to increasingly fail due to Mtg's dropping numbers. It's why they're making a mockery out of their pro circuit, they know that no one's interested in it anymore based on a number of metrics.

That's also why WOTC is pushing Arena hard and turning their focus to Arena. Paper Magic has no future at this point, and they can at least try to maintain by increasing the per customer spend on Paper, and make their new goal to milk the whales without having to worry about Ebay getting in the way on Arena.

Magic's never been less healthy, WOTC will keep up the illusion long enough to let these digital products generate enough revenue streams to keep shareholders from firing all the executive staff, and then they'll drop the pretense of Mtg being healthy.

 

[Don Durito]

I think WOTC should definitely do non-fantasy games with the 5E engine.

It will get people to try them and then realise they want a more suitable game system and then other game systems will start getting a much needed boost from the D&D boom.

 

[Parmandur]

I'm pretty certain that the second part is not accurate. Available evidence indicates that what's happening with Magic the Gathering is a hidden crash or a bubble and that it's never been more unhealthy than it is today.

We had widespread reports of attrition just a few years ago, with some correlation in their financials. Then WOTC did what many companies do when they're facing a major collapse...they hid it.

How you do that is fairly simple. If you can't increase market size, or if your market size is shrinking, then there's only one way to make the numbers work such that shareholders don't realize that you've been making major mistakes...you increase the per customer spend for the remaining customer base such that you show growth. Which is exactly what WOTC did, they've been increasing the amount of product and going the route of micro-transactions on Arena to hide the fact that they're effectively crashing.

It's also why WOTC signed a deal with Amazon that shafted shops, because they know they've hit the point where shops are going to increasingly fail due to Mtg's dropping numbers. It's why they're making a mockery out of their pro circuit, they know that no one's interested in it anymore based on a number of metrics.

That's also why WOTC is pushing Arena hard and turning their focus to Arena. Paper Magic has no future at this point, and they can at least try to maintain by increasing the per customer spend on Paper, and make their new goal to milk the whales without having to worry about Ebay getting in the way on Arena.

Magic's never been less healthy, WOTC will keep up the illusion long enough to let these digital products generate enough revenue streams to keep shareholders from firing all the executive staff, and then they'll drop the pretense of Mtg being healthy.

I'm not really into Magic, but three million people playing the free to play online version of the game is hardly unhealthy. People have been calling the death knell of the game for a while, bit I still see people playing and they are making buckoo bucks.

 

[LuisCarlos17f]

Hasbro closes Backflip, studio behind DragonVale and Transformers mobile games

Dragonvale? It is perfect to be a franchise as My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic.

---

We are near of the end of the year, and the Christmas holidays are the best time to sell toys. And don't forget Hasbro had to spend a lot of money to buy Entertainment One. There aren't true reasons to be pessimistic about its future.

WotC needs its own "Starfinder", a reboot of d20 Future, and an optional d20 system for all genres and not only sword & sorcery. Esper Genesis is a good example of sci-fi with 5th Ed rules, and there was a Star Wars d20, Fading Suns d20 or Call of Cthulhu d20. But the system isn't really ready for the right level of power when PCs or enemies have got the right technology. A dinosaur or a giant vermin could be a true challenge for Conan the barbarian, but Flash Gordon or Back Rogers with a ray gun only would need a shoot. How should be the XPs reward? And don't say you are using milestones in your games.

* For April's fool they could announce a new dungeon crawler board game with a complete set of unusual dices (d5, d7, d9, d11, d13, d14, d15, d16, d18, d22, d24 and d30.), where bonus and penalties would become degrees, (F.E 1d4 +1 becomes 1d5, d20 - 2 penalty becomes d18. Special advantage could be throwing 1d16 and 1d20 to choose the best). Some player would invent some homebred rule about this. A limited edition would be a jewel por collectors and speculators. The little would be "Oubliettes & Ogres" and the PCs miniatures would be D&D version of the characters from My Little Pony.

They also could try an agreement with Playmobil for a version of Saban franchises, for example the monsters from "Mystic Knights of Tir Na Nog" (at least it would be as April's Fool).

 

[Hussar]

Umm, when you control about 80% of a market, why do they need to release a competing game like a Starfinder? All that does is pull people away from the core products. There has never been any evidence that any other game other than D&D draws in new gamers in any real numbers.

I mean, by WotC standards, Starfinder is an abject failure. Great by Paizo standards, but, by 5e D&D standards? not even a blip on the radar.

Look, I get wanting a new game, that's groovy, but, when you're predicting doubling your market in the next 5 years, you don't suddenly shift your focus away form your core brand.

 

[LuisCarlos17f]

Because a d20 Future also means toys. Let's see this like a plan B. And Starfinder still as great future. Maybe it needs a videogame adaptation like King-maker.

We don't know about the future. Fortnite was almost to be cancelled before trying the Battle Royal.

 

[Zardnaar]

There's probably no money in new modern/future type games.

 

[Hussar]

Because a d20 Future also means toys. Let's see this like a plan B. And Starfinder still as great future. Maybe it needs a videogame adaptation like King-maker.

We don't know about the future. Fortnite was almost to be cancelled before trying the Battle Royal.

Yes, and now that it has the Battle Royal, it isn't about to suddenly start producing completely different games. Sure, they just had a major update recently, but, it's not like they're suddenly banging out a 4X game or even an MMO. Nope, they're going to stay right in the middle of what they're doing and ride this wave for the foreseeable future.

 

[Ralif Redhammer]

I don't think that a new RPG brand would be more toyetic than Dungeons and Dragons. Back in the 80s, the LJN D&D toyline wasn't huge like Star Wars, Masters of the Universe, Transformers, or G.I. Joe, but people are still talking about Warduke. If Wizards/Hasbro decide they want to get an RPG back into the toy market, it's going to be D&D, not some new property.

Because a d20 Future also means toys.

 

[Urriak Uruk]

Because a d20 Future also means toys. Let's see this like a plan B. And Starfinder still as great future. Maybe it needs a videogame adaptation like King-maker.

We don't know about the future. Fortnite was almost to be cancelled before trying the Battle Royal.

The only "toys" related to D&D products already exists with the Wizkids minis. And although Wizkids I'm sure has ok sales, they probably aren't enough to justify Hasbro pressuring their cash cow into releasing an entirely new system just to sell more.

Look I've said this before, but Hasbro treats Wizards a little like a golden goose; don't cook it when it keeps making gold eggs. They have started to meddle by starting the Netflix Magic the Gathering show, and exploring a D&D movie, but they aren't going to screw with the core business.