HD-DVD is Dead (was: First Signs of Blu-Ray Dominance)

[Banshee16]

They really are different markets for the time being, especially with the buy-in cost of HD. DVD saw it's first drop in sales last year, if that makes any difference.

But is that because of HDDVD and Blu-Ray, or because of the prevalence of downloadable movies via Torrents and such? Tonnes of people I know are getting their movies from illicit channels these days.

Same thing with RPG books. I question WotC's assertion of whether the edition change is needed now because the market is saturated, because I know a lot of people still loving 3.0/3.5....it's just that they get most of their books via Torrents and stuff. I know it's not legal, and I don't support it, and frankly, I keep telling them it has a bad effect in terms of not reinforcing companies to create products we like, but they keep doing it. I'm not convinced as to whether a new edition will improve revenues, given the book's likely be ripped within days of being released.

If HD-DVD is dead, I'm not really worried about it. Sony is not the sole owner of BR. They have a big horse in the race, for sure. But it's not just them.

I was thinking the same thing. Early reports say they didn't get a dime from the BR patent holders (which are more companies than just Sony, BTW). Time will tell on that one, tho.

Downloadable content rocks, but for HD I don't see it becoming the norm in a few years. There will be similar problems with delivery and "who actually owns it" issues. And some people just like having a hard copy they can bring to a friend's house, or pop into a laptop. I'd love for the tech to get to that point, and fast, but it looks to be further down the road as something that would eliminate discs.

Ddoing a quick search reveals this quick example of backwards compatability:

http://www.circuitcity.com/ssm/Sony...sem/rpsm/oid/184588/rpem/ccd/productDetail.do

I haven't personally tested a DVD on a stand alone BR player.

Thanks for the link. I'm no expert on this.....I've just seen a lot of posts about Blu-Ray not being backwards compatible. So I was referencing those.

Frankly, the whole idea of a format war is dumb to begin with. I'm not sure why it's needed. If I'm happy with my HDDVD player, and you're happy with your Blu-Ray player, why don't we each just buy disks in the appropriate technology? This whole idea of Warner and Disney and all these companies having exclusivity deals is just dumb.

Also, is the Blu-Ray Association still being investigated for anti-trust violations? The Wikipedia entry I saw indicated that there have been investigations into them, since Phillips, Sony, and Panasonic had members on the DVD Forum steering committee, and used their votes to torpedo some of the technology proposals put forward by the group that eventually created HDDVD......before they announced the creation of the Blu-Ray Association. But those references were from 2005, and I have no idea if it went anywhere.

Banshee

 

[John Crichton]

I've already got the first four on DVD.

Oh, didn't know that. Forget what I posted.

(the box of both the HDDVD and Blu-Ray sets leaves room for the final two movies).

I didn't know they left room for the last two! That's pretty cool and a damn good idea.

I'm still not sure that it's over. Five months is a lot of time, and frankly, there's been a lot of back and forth in this.

I'm not sure either. However, WB is a huge player in the game. Have you seen the amount of titles they have? I didn't know until I looked.

Warner announced this today, but who knows if Microsoft/Toshiba are going to try stealing one of the companies Sony currently has in the Blu-Ray camp. They're talking about getting HDDVD players into the market for $100, when Blu-Ray's still largely around $3-400. If sales of the HDDVD players continue increasing due to lower cost, you don't think some of these companies might reconsider?

Cheaper players may not make much of a difference at this point if the content isn't there. It will be interesting to see where this goes. All it really means, for the time being, is that come May and then the 2008 holiday season, assuming things stay the same, is that BR will have more exclusive content than HD-DVD.

I've heard that if you eliminate the PS3's from the equation, HDDVD is actually kicking Blu-Ray's butt...

But, you can't take PS3's out of the equation. They play the discs and do a fine job of doing so.

 

[John Crichton]

But is that because of HDDVD and Blu-Ray, or because of the prevalence of downloadable movies via Torrents and such? Tonnes of people I know are getting their movies from illicit channels these days.

I dunno. It's just interesting that this is really the first year the HD discs have been out there and the first year DVD has taken a hit since it hit the market.

Same thing with RPG books. I question WotC's assertion of whether the edition change is needed now because the market is saturated, because I know a lot of people still loving 3.0/3.5....it's just that they get most of their books via Torrents and stuff. I know it's not legal, and I don't support it, and frankly, I keep telling them it has a bad effect in terms of not reinforcing companies to create products we like, but they keep doing it. I'm not convinced as to whether a new edition will improve revenues, given the book's likely be ripped within days of being released.

I don't really want to get into a D&D 4e thing here.

I do understand what you are saying and all these companies are certainly trying to make more money while keeping their content under their control. It's their job to find out what we want to buy. I have seen a significant upgrade in picture quality from these new formats. There is certainly a market for HD discs vs DVD. If people didn't want these new formats, they wouldn't buy them. Marketing can only go so far before actual results are needed to sway someone.

Thanks for the link. I'm no expert on this.....I've just seen a lot of posts about Blu-Ray not being backwards compatible. So I was referencing those.

No prob. I don't really go on lots of HD forums. A few here and there but once the tech stuff and actual news turns to bickering, I go elsewhere.

Frankly, the whole idea of a format war is dumb to begin with. I'm not sure why it's needed. If I'm happy with my HDDVD player, and you're happy with your Blu-Ray player, why don't we each just buy disks in the appropriate technology? This whole idea of Warner and Disney and all these companies having exclusivity deals is just dumb.

It is stupid. But that's what happens when all these companies want the revenue that DVD created. It's the whole reason MS got in the videogame market. There is too much potential for financial gain to stay away.

Also, is the Blu-Ray Association still being investigated for anti-trust violations? The Wikipedia entry I saw indicated that there have been investigations into them, since Phillips, Sony, and Panasonic had members on the DVD Forum steering committee, and used their votes to torpedo some of the technology proposals put forward by the group that eventually created HDDVD......before they announced the creation of the Blu-Ray Association. But those references were from 2005, and I have no idea if it went anywhere.

No idea. Hadn't followed that story since it dissappeared a while ago.

 

[Banshee16]

I didn't know they left room for the last two! That's pretty cool and a damn good idea.

I thought it was pretty neat too! At least if they're double-dipping, they're leaving room so I can buy the individual movies later on, and add them to the set.

I'm not sure either. However, WB is a huge player in the game. Have you seen the amount of titles they have? I didn't know until I looked.

Do you have a link? The only effect I *know* that's getting me hot under the collar at the moment is that Warner owns New Line, from what I've seen posted on some boards.....meaning that when the Lord of the Rings movies eventually come out in high-def, they'll be Blu-Ray only. And that SUCKS.

Cheaper players may not make much of a difference at this point if the content isn't there. It will be interesting to see where this goes. All it really means, for the time being, is that come May and then the 2008 holiday season, assuming things stay the same, is that BR will have more exclusive content than HD-DVD.

But, you can't take PS3's out of the equation. They play the discs and do a fine job of doing so.

I think the cheaper players will make a difference. The way I see it, is that Blu-Ray has benefited from Sony including it in the PS3. There are lots of gamers out there who like movies, and some gamers who probably don't. By making the device both a game platform and a movie platform, they're merging both worlds. But the number of customers who are gamers is probably a small subset of the number of customers who want to watch movies at home. I know lots of non-gamers who would never consider the PS3, but will look for a Blu-Ray or HDDVD stand alone player.

If there is a sizeable group of people out there who haven't made the jump, who are willing to eventually move to HD, but don't care about the PS3, and the PS3 is the primary engine behind Blu-Ray's dominance, then there's a huge market out there for inexpensive high-definition players, and HDDVD is better set to capitalize on it. If they get $100 players out there, and sales start picking up, I'm betting some of those movie studios will start changing their tune. I think Microsoft/Toshiba could still turn this around. Announce a deal or launch a $100 player, or a $200 player discounted to $100, and try to cut Sony's throat by flooding the market with new consumers with $100 players.

I'm sure there are tonnes of people on the fence, who'll never get a PS3 player, but would love HD movies. Even thinking back to my own wife....frankly, if I bought a PS3 tomorrow, even if I say it's just for watching movies, she'd kill me. I've already got the 360, and she would not support adding in another game system.

But if I bought a stand alone Blu-Ray player? I probably wouldn't have an issue. That's one of the reasons I bought HDDVD to begin with (not the XBox unit).....it's far less expensive to get into it. I think my player was $260, and came with 9 movies. The Blu-Ray players were all in the $400-600 price range at the time. Unless I bought a PS3....and I value my life

Banshee

 

[Banshee16]

It is stupid. But that's what happens when all these companies want the revenue that DVD created. It's the whole reason MS got in the videogame market. There is too much potential for financial gain to stay away.

That's the rub.....whether I spend $35 on a copy of Pirates of the Caribbean in HDDVD or in Blu-Ray, Disney would still get my money for instance. Same thing with Transformers.

I remember the Betamax war, and this is the same thing all over again. I've read that Sony has lost almost every format war that they've fought, and they never learn their lesson. Maybe this isn't over, or maybe those were all learning experiences, and this time they'll get it right.

Makes me question whether to buy further HDDVD disks though. I'm really, really impressed with the ones I've already picked up. And I know it's not like the gestapo's going to come to my door, unhook my player, and take off with it. But if I buy a bunch of disks and the format *does* die, and eventually my player breaks, then there'll be no way to get a replacement, and the disks will end up as coasters.

Banshee

 

[trancejeremy]

I remember the Betamax war, and this is the same thing all over again. I've read that Sony has lost almost every format war that they've fought, and they never learn their lesson. Maybe this isn't over, or maybe those were all learning experiences, and this time they'll get it right.

People seem to think that Blu Ray is Sony only, but it's not, by any means. It's pretty much the entire DVD group except Toshiba.

The DVD group was:

* Hitachi, Ltd.
* Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. Ltd.
* Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
* Pioneer Electronic Corporation
* Royal Philips Electronics N.V.
* Sony Corporation
* Thomson
* Time Warner Inc.
* Toshiba Corporation
* Victor Company of Japan, Ltd. (JVC)


The Blue Ray Group was

Hitachi, LG, Panasonic, Pioneer, Philips, Samsung, Sharp, Sony, and Thomson

 

[John Crichton]

Makes me question whether to buy further HDDVD disks though.

This is the thing that is really going to hurt HD-DVD; owners and potential owners. Once they get a whiff of this news it will place doubt in their minds about pulling the trigger on a purchase or not. And even if the format doesn't appear dead and discs are still coming out people not so much in the know will start to wonder why "that other format" has so much more selection.

I'm really, really impressed with the ones I've already picked up. And I know it's not like the gestapo's going to come to my door, unhook my player, and take off with it. But if I buy a bunch of disks and the format *does* die, and eventually my player breaks, then there'll be no way to get a replacement, and the disks will end up as coasters.

I like both my HD-DVDs and BRs. The Blu-Rays look a tad better but that's probably because the PS3 plays them better than the Xbox 360 plays HD-DVDs.

 

[Darth K'Trava]

I have stayed out of this "format war" as I can't afford to get into it. DVDs do a good job of showing movies in great detail on my computer (which is where I watch all my DVDs). I don't have a HD tv. Probably will have to look into them the closer it comes to the mandatory conversion to digital.... Although I wonder how my having digital cable will aid in that.... The LCD tvs I've seen at Wal-Mart make my 13" tube look sharp. The picture quality is rather crappy for something that's supposed to be "digital" and "HD". They only look good when they have Shrek 3 running on them (or other high-FX movies) than they do for regular content.

 

[John Crichton]

I thought it was pretty neat too! At least if they're double-dipping, they're leaving room so I can buy the individual movies later on, and add them to the set.

Yeah, it was a good plan on their part. I'd like to see other franchises do this in the future, if possible.

Do you have a link? The only effect I *know* that's getting me hot under the collar at the moment is that Warner owns New Line, from what I've seen posted on some boards.....meaning that when the Lord of the Rings movies eventually come out in high-def, they'll be Blu-Ray only. And that SUCKS.

I didn't get the list here (and didn't save the link) but this is a pretty good site for HD news RE: HD-DVD & BR.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/

And yeah, it appears that New Line is coming over to BR, but they weren't part of the WB deal and made the choice separately.

Here's just a list of the WB films, not counting any of the other studios they own:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Warner_Bros._films

Which are linked here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warner_Bros.

I think the cheaper players will make a difference. The way I see it, is that Blu-Ray has benefited from Sony including it in the PS3. There are lots of gamers out there who like movies, and some gamers who probably don't. By making the device both a game platform and a movie platform, they're merging both worlds. But the number of customers who are gamers is probably a small subset of the number of customers who want to watch movies at home. I know lots of non-gamers who would never consider the PS3, but will look for a Blu-Ray or HDDVD stand alone player.

I'll just disagree here. The amount of crossover between movie watchers and gamers is huge. And the cheaper players to date haven't helped HD-DVD very much. Now that the holiday season is past it will be hard to play catch up.

If there is a sizeable group of people out there who haven't made the jump, who are willing to eventually move to HD, but don't care about the PS3, and the PS3 is the primary engine behind Blu-Ray's dominance, then there's a huge market out there for inexpensive high-definition players, and HDDVD is better set to capitalize on it. If they get $100 players out there, and sales start picking up, I'm betting some of those movie studios will start changing their tune. I think Microsoft/Toshiba could still turn this around. Announce a deal or launch a $100 player, or a $200 player discounted to $100, and try to cut Sony's throat by flooding the market with new consumers with $100 players.

The problem is where are they going to get their content from? Disney, Sony, WB, not to mention many others have exclusivity deals on BR. A cheaper player will be fine but if folks don't have much of a selection to choose from it won't matter. It will also start to effect what stores stock as well.

I'm sure there are tonnes of people on the fence, who'll never get a PS3 player, but would love HD movies. Even thinking back to my own wife....frankly, if I bought a PS3 tomorrow, even if I say it's just for watching movies, she'd kill me. I've already got the 360, and she would not support adding in another game system.

This is assuming BR players don't come down in comparable price. The industry would be silly to not be competitive and put an end to all the confusion.

But if I bought a stand alone Blu-Ray player? I probably wouldn't have an issue. That's one of the reasons I bought HDDVD to begin with (not the XBox unit).....it's far less expensive to get into it. I think my player was $260, and came with 9 movies. The Blu-Ray players were all in the $400-600 price range at the time. Unless I bought a PS3....and I value my life

Typically, these kinds of things are really decided during the holiday shopping season. The way I see it, the two formats have all of 2008 to decide this thing by offering promos (like have already been popping up like crazy for both!), slashing prices and advertising. HD-DVD has an uphill battle ahead of it and it's quite possible that without WB they are already dead in the water. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

[John Crichton]

I have stayed out of this "format war" as I can't afford to get into it. DVDs do a good job of showing movies in great detail on my computer (which is where I watch all my DVDs). I don't have a HD tv. Probably will have to look into them the closer it comes to the mandatory conversion to digital.... Although I wonder how my having digital cable will aid in that....

I wouldn't worry about it too much. The TVs will come down in price and even if you don't upgrade, your cable company will probably provide an adapter to make it work with your TV.

The LCD tvs I've seen at Wal-Mart make my 13" tube look sharp. The picture quality is rather crappy for something that's supposed to be "digital" and "HD". They only look good when they have Shrek 3 running on them (or other high-FX movies) than they do for regular content.

Don't trust Walmart or many other stores for their "HD" displays. Most of them have standard definition signals running to all TVs. It's so stupid if they really want to sell them. Go to a Best Buy/Tweeter/Circuit City/Sears with a decent setup and ask the salesperson to pop in a HD disc to demo for you.