Help with math: how do you not fall behind?

You do fall behind.
You do have a weak defense.
You are 10-20% less likely to hit a foe of your level at 30th than you are at 1st.

You compensate for it by getting more & better Encounter & Daily powers, having access to more & better magic items, and getting more & better bonuses from your team mates.

Cheers, -- N
 

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You do fall behind.
You do have a weak defense.
You are 10-20% less likely to hit a foe of your level at 30th than you are at 1st.

You compensate for it by getting more & better Encounter & Daily powers, having access to more & better magic items, and getting more & better bonuses from your team mates.

Cheers, -- N
By late epic players better have worked out teamwork for melee characters to almost always have flank [+2]. It won't always work, but readied strikes for when your ally is conferring a flank bonus should be SOP by epic levels.
 

You do fall behind.
You do have a weak defense.
You are 10-20% less likely to hit a foe of your level at 30th than you are at 1st.

You compensate for it by getting more & better Encounter & Daily powers, having access to more & better magic items, and getting more & better bonuses from your team mates.

Cheers, -- N
Well if the penguin says so, it must be so. It does seem kind of strange, however, since characters like warlocks (a striker!) seem to have trouble hitting people even at low levels. In the level four game I'm running now, the warlock didn't roll all that poorly, yet still managed to miss with his daily and both encounter powers. I hate to tell him it will be getting worse as we go along...

--Steve
 

It does seem kind of strange, however, since characters like warlocks (a striker!) seem to have trouble hitting people even at low levels. In the level four game I'm running now, the warlock didn't roll all that poorly, yet still managed to miss with his daily and both encounter powers. I hate to tell him it will be getting worse as we go along...

It may come down to his attack bonuses, and if maybe he's forgetting something to add. by level four, he should have at least a +1 implement of some sort, and soon he should have a +2, by at the least 8th level. (a +2 implement is a 6th level item, and only 7th or 8th with special abilities attached.)

On average, PCs should have somewhere close to a 50/50 chance of hitting erquivalent opponents, so that can result in a good many misses if your dice just aren't hot.
 


I tend to agree with MrMyth that the extra bonuses will be made up for by miscellaneous bonuses. For example, if the PCs have a Warlord who took Knight Commander as a Paragon Path, that's +2 to attack. If the attack is a Kensai, and has his Back to The Wall, he's almost even. If he could gain combat advantage in a situation where he normally wouldn't be able to, he's ahead.

For many characters, who can pick and choose a defense to target, they can sometimes make up the difference by targeting the weak defense. Weak defenses in the heroic tier seem to be usually about 3 points weaker than the strong defense. In the Paragon tier, 5 seems more likely and in Epic, many creatures have a weak defense 8 points lower than their strongest one. It's not universally true, but it seems to be a trend.
 

Nifft says it above far more succinctly than I could hope to!

I admit that the vast majority of what we are saying - both those who worry there might be a problem, and those who think the system can handle it - aren't going to be really known for sure for quite some time. The vast majority of gamers aren't going to reach those levels naturally for awhile yet, and simply creating a high-level character and diving in will likely yield unreliable results.

From what I've seen, it looks to work out.

Aust Diamondew showed the numbers above that shows a level 30 character needing a 14 to hit an average enemy of his level - but note that the character was just about as unoptimized as possible. The vast majority of characters will be at least 1 to 2 points higher from classes, feats, paragon paths, weapon proficiency, etc - and probably getting another 1 to 2 points from flanking, buffs, or other tactical actions.

That puts the average PC at having a 50/50 shot to hit an average enemy. That seems a good starting point to me. A really optimized character will have another +2 to +3 to hit. A party filled with tactical brilliance will eke out another couple points. On the other hand, some enemies will be solos, and some will be soldiers, and some will be solo soldiers - and those will be harder to hit.

But 50/50 as the baseline seems pretty reasonable. At level one, your average fellow is hitting more often - maybe 55-65% of the time, since the odds are a bit more weighted in their favor. This seems a fair handicap given their lack of options, with fewer Powers, Items, bonuses, etc.

And while the numbers are slightly different between the two, it isn't by enough to truly change the feel of the game itself.
 

As a mental exercise, I created a party of 30th level characters that was able to automatically win initiative against Orcus and (provided they started within a reasonable distance of him) was able to keep him stunned and completely unable to act while they brought his hit points down to 0, provided nobody rolled a 1 on an attack roll. On average, this would take about five rounds.

In the course of this exercise, I discovered how useful the following powers are in boosting your or your party's chance of hitting:

1. Lead the Attack (Warlord Daily 1): One Strength attack vs. AC. If you hit, allies within 5 squares gain a power bonus to attack rolls equal to your Intelligence modifier +1 against the target you hit until the end of the encounter.

2. Feinting Flurry (Rogue Daily 19): All the target's defenses against your attacks take a penalty equal to your Charisma modifier. This is an Effect, so it does not require you to actually hit with your attack, and can be sustained as a minor action.

3. Hand of the Gods (Paladin Encounter 17): Allies adjacent to you gain a power bonus to attack rolls equal to your Wisdom modifier until the end of your next turn. This is an Effect.

4. Armor Splinter (Ranger Encounter 13): Make two Strength attacks vs. AC. If one attack hits, the target takes a penalty to AC equal to your Wisdom modifier until the end of your next turn. If both attacks hit, the penalty is equal to your Wisdom modifier +2.

5. Plague of Doom (Cleric Encounter 13): Wisdom attack vs. Fortitude. If you hit, the target takes a penalty to all defenses equal to your Charisma modifier until the end of your next turn.

6. Chains of Sorrow (Fighter Encounter 13): Strength attack vs. AC. If you hit and are wielding a flail, the target takes a penalty to all defenses equal to your Dexterity modifier until the end of your next turn.

Essentially, the Rogue/Shadow Assassin/Demigod (multiclass Fighter) wins initiative, uses an action point to gain +8 to his attack rolls (+4 from his paragon path ability, +4 from the tactical Warlord), uses Feinting Flurry (lowering Orcus's defenses by -8 against his attacks) and stuns Orcus until the end of his next turn with Perfect Strike (easily hitting Orcus's AC, Fort and Reflex).

The Paladin/Champion of Order/Demigod (multiclass Ranger) activates Hand of the Gods to give a +9 power bonus to the attack rolls of the Ranger/Pit Fighter/Demigod (multiclass Fighter) and the tactical Warlord/Kensei/Demigod (multiclass Fighter). The Ranger spends an action point (gaining a +4 to attack rolls from the tactical Warlord) and uses Armor Splinter, most likely hitting with both attacks and lowering Orcus's AC by 11. This, together with the Paladin's power bonus to attack rolls, makes it almost certain that the Warlord will hit with Lead the Attack, giving everyone a +10 power bonus to hit Orcus until the end of the encounter.

In the next round, the Paladin uses Armor Splinter again to keep Orcus's AC low, and the round after that, the Rogue uses Chains of Sorrow to lower ALL of Orcus's defenses by 9 (between Feinting Flurry, Armor Splinter, and Lead the Attack, it doesn't matter that his Strength is rather low).

In the fourth round, the Cleric/Radiant Servant/Demigod (multiclass Rogue), who would have already used Feinting Flurry in a previous round, uses Plague of Doom to lower all of Orcus's defenses by 9.

By this point, some of the PCs would have started running out of encounter powers, and so they can use Divine Miracle to refresh Armor Splinter/Chains of Sorrow/Plague of Doom if Orcus is still alive.
 
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There are _tons_ of ways to give enemies penalties to defense or penalties to attack. In my experience, a lot more than these enemies use them on PCs.

It's also pretty easy to get bonuses to attack. Bonuses to defense are a bit more rare.

As a reminder, you can get +2 to defenses via feats and those feats are often worthwhile.
 


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