kermit4karate
A strong opinion is still only an opinion.
It does, though. I've seen it play out countless times. It's like gambling at a casino. The guy next to you hits a jackpot, and suddenly everyone thinks they can win. Same goes for this mechanic and the psychological effects on the table. As soon as one of the players around the table gets hit by a goblin firing a short bow and takes 22 HP damage (1d6+2 normally; DM rolls a 6, then another 6, then another 6, then a 2; which happens far more often than you'd think), and suddenly everyone gets a little more afraid of goblins with short bows.Someone attacks me with a longsword and there is a 1 in 8 chance that I take an additional d8 damage. A d8 does an average of 4.5 damage. So this is just over an extra half a point of damage every time I get hit.
If the extra damage d8 is also an 8, this happens again. I think this brings the average up to about 0.6? With further diminishing average effects as you go up.
I get that the threat of a spike may be more effective than the average over time. But I think stat bonuses and other damage mods are generally about half the value of the dice at low levels, and then about equal in mid levels? So you're talking about a 1 in 8 chance of doing less than double damage. Which I think can be significant at low levels, particularly in older editions (where you don't start at maximum 1st level hit points). But a level 1 fighter in 5e has what, 13 hit points? And 22 hit points at level 2? And 31 at level 3? I think by that point a 1 in 8 chance of taking an additional 1d8 damage is not enough of a threat to affect most people's feelings about the scariness of combat.
It's mostly psychological, but so are agoraphobia and PTSD. Doesn't make them feel any less real.
And compare this to the alternative, where a player with 20 HP KNOWS, beyond a shadow of a doubt, they'll survive a hit from that same goblin's short bow. To me that is a huge problem, but there's an easy fix.