D&D 5E How fantastic are natural 1's?


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Statistics often seem to defy basic logic, but that’s because human brains are really bad at them. Ovinomancer is correct here though. It seems unintuitive, but that statistics for you. They don’t work in a way that is intuitive to us.
Technically, it was probabilities. ;)

The trick with probabilities is really in understanding what question you're asking. Once you actually understand the question, then the probabilities lay out pretty nicely (if in a challenging way). The trouble is really in that we're bad at questions.
 

Honestly? I can't prove that you're wrong. That doesn't mean that you're right because quite simply it defies basic logic. If I roll a 20 sided die, any specific number has a 1 in 20 chance of occurring. If I understand your conclusion, no specific number should show up 5% of the times even if I roll an infinite number of times. That can't be true.

But I'm not going to argue with you because I'm not fluent enough in probability to challenge it. Other than to say there's lies, damn lies and statistics. Have a good one.
Perfectly fine, even if there's a backhanded insult in there (either questioning my honesty or my intelligence, or both). I'd, again, recommend that you not ask the question if you're just going to poop on the answers you get.
 

Yes. That's the point. I was responding to the suggestion that really, this stuff doesn't happen. But clearly it does.
I reviewed the thread and see you offering an example to how it can happy. Sorry.

I can fully understand the idea of "let the dice fall where they may" but perhaps there ought to be some limits on exactly how bad a day a character has just for bad luck.
So, should there be some limits on how much "good luck" a PC can have then?

All I can say is I've been playing with/using critical fumbles for decades and IME they add to the game, not detract from it, the same way critical hits add to it. For posters who've had bad experiences, that is unfortunate, and I would think often because the "penalty" was disproportionately harsh.

FWIW, our mishaps are most often dropping a weapon (or spell component pouch, etc.) or falling prone. In 5E, this is basically a nuisance. You can use your free object interaction to draw a new weapon or possible pick up the dropped one. You can stand up from falling prone if you have half your move remaining. Since we also use confirmation rolls, a disaster is of course worse. Your weapon breaking, your spell component pouch opening up and spilling everywhere, hitting an ally, your bowstring breaking, etc.

And, of course, all these things happen to the enemies as well--which happens more often since there are more enemies typically than PCs, and often is a boon to the PCs.
 

Perfectly fine, even if there's a backhanded insult in there (either questioning my honesty or my intelligence, or both). I'd, again, recommend that you not ask the question if you're just going to poop on the answers you get.

Didn't mean an insult, nor did I mean to imply one. Sorry if it was poorly worded.

What I am saying is that it only becomes less than 5% because we are breaking it up into sets of 4 roles. Kind of like how even though I have a 50% chance of getting heads or tails, flipping the coin twice will not give me a 100% chance of getting heads. If I have a perfectly weighted die then any number will be rolled 1 in 20 times if we roll the die a sufficient number of times. Apparently 4 is not a sufficient number of times.

So that's all. Unless you're telling me that we have some odd Monty Haul Door Problem. If not then I'll just go back to lies, damn lies and statistics. Even if the answer is statistics it doesn't mean you're lying.
 

So, should there be some limits on how much "good luck" a PC can have then?

No, for two reasons:

1) Adventures are designed largely expecting that the bad guys are going to go down, and the challenges overcome. If the PCs do that a little more quickly than expected, that's not a big deal to the game overall.

2) Success and failure are not, psychologically speaking, merely mirror images. Especially when the player has built a PC to be competent at a thing, and critical failures assail in that area of competence.

All I can say is I've been playing with/using critical fumbles for decades and IME they add to the game

And that's fine. Have fun.

"I have fun with it" is not really an argument that it is a good idea in a general sense - anecdote is not data. Some people play heavily PvP games, and have done so for decades, and find it adds to the game. I would have a hard time recommending it as a general practice, though.

And, of course, all these things happen to the enemies as well--which happens more often since there are more enemies typically than PCs, and often is a boon to the PCs.

See (1), as the monster is mostly there to be beaten. Also see (2) above, as the GM doesn't usually have a year's worth of thought and investment in any particular monster. If an otyugh has a critical fumble and... dies swallowing its own tentacle or something, the GM is not going to be broken up over it. In general, the psychological position of GM is not the same as a player, so the impact of failure is significantly different.
 

If people have ideas, suggestions and so on for how to run fun combat, I'm all for it. But I'll still hate fumble rules, or any rule that affects one build far more than any other.
I'm also not a fan of fumble rules as those seem designed to cause suffering. I'm much more interested in using nat 1s to produce some interesting development in the situation rather than punish the individual PC, and to be clear, those are with ability checks rather than combat. Combat already does stuff with nat 1s and nat 20s, no need to pile on there especially as combat rolls increase as the levels progress as everyone has noted.

But, even in combat, at my table a nat 1 rolled when attempting a dramatic leap using a chandelier is definitely going to cause some setback :)
 

I'm also not a fan of fumble rules as those seem designed to cause suffering. I'm much more interested in using nat 1s to produce some interesting development in the situation rather than punish the individual PC, and to be clear, those are with ability checks rather than combat. Combat already does stuff with nat 1s and nat 20s, no need to pile on there especially as combat rolls increase as the levels progress as everyone has noted.

But, even in combat, at my table a nat 1 rolled when attempting a dramatic leap using a chandelier is definitely going to cause some setback :)

Significant failure on a skill checks is something I use as well. I just base it on missing the DC by 10 or more, not a natural 1. Although I actually sort of do because I treat a result of 0 as different - if you've decided that your PC only has an 8 strength and you need to make a strength/athletics check it's not going to be pretty even if the DC is 5. :devilish:
 

Question - what do people consider "good" fumble chart? All the ones I've seen are pretty awful. If the setback isn't that big of a deal such as falling prone (which is still, well, dumb IMHO) it's not much of a setback in most cases. To put it another way, if there is no significant setback, why not just have the PC or DM narrate a spectacular miss? What value does a chart add?
 

No, for two reasons:

1) Adventures are designed largely expecting that the bad guys are going to go down, and the challenges overcome. If the PCs do that a little more quickly than expected, that's not a big deal to the game overall.

2) Success and failure are not, psychologically speaking, merely mirror images. Especially when the player has built a PC to be competent at a thing, and critical failures assail in that area of competence.
1) And if they do it more slowly, also not a big deal--in fact, it has more tension and makes the game more challenging.

2) Really? Are you a trained and accredited psychologist? I never said they were mirror images. Failure is actually more vital to most people than success. We learn more from failure. Often when people reach a goal and succeed it feels anti-climatic. Bad luck is a humbling experience to those who are very competent.

Anyway, it is a moot point however because what makes a game appealing, psychologically speaking, is the level of the challenge to an individual. Consider a game, such as golf. Bad shots happen often (even to professionals), and they are frustrating of course, but they are part of what makes the game what it is.

"I have fun with it" is not really an argument that it is a good idea in a general sense - anecdote is not data.
No, it isn't "data" but it is perfectly fine for a discussion. People often as about a certain thing in the game (such as the thread about playing all the same class or which of three monks is most fun) and offering anecdotal information is perfectly valid.

Every person who is complaining and such about critical fumbles is also offering anecdotal information, FWIW.

Some people play heavily PvP games, and have done so for decades, and find it adds to the game. I would have a hard time recommending it as a general practice, though.
If they are asking it about it though, you can certain recommend it or not as you see fit.

See (1), as the monster is mostly there to be beaten. Also see (2) above, as the GM doesn't usually have a year's worth of thought and investment in any particular monster. If an otyugh has a critical fumble and... dies swallowing its own tentacle or something, the GM is not going to be broken up over it. In general, the psychological position of GM is not the same as a player, so the impact of failure is significantly different.
The concept that the monster is there to be beaten is part of why D&D is too easy IMO. And as a DM, I put several hours each session into it, and that includes selecting opponents, etc. My investment, especially in the BBEGs for my games, far exceeds the time most players IME put into their PCs. I know some players really get into backstory, developing personality and such, but that is few and far between IME and when I do see it, sure they do it over the course of months or years--but it is maybe 30 minutes of thought a week on it (if that). It isn't as though they are toiling daily or weekly over the decisions about their PCs. YMMV of course.

The degree of critical fumbles is a larger issue IMO. Sure, in the 80's, you could stab yourself in the heart by accidentally falling on your blade when you attacked, but you could also cut off a dragon's head if you rolled well enough. The mishaps, and even "disasters", I am discussing and most tables use (IME anyway) is hardly of that caliber anymore.

In short, there is nothing wrong with using critical fumbles if you implement them well. They add both tension to the game and can offer comedic relief at times (especially when the result is not something that leads to a PC's death--which it shouldn't in and of itself). Once I had a player whose cleric used a sling. He ended up with a disaster for his fumble and his sling slipped out of his grasp and ended up in their campfire--at which point is was quickly burnt up. Nearly twenty years later, another player and I still joke about it. It was funny.
 

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